In a report published by the British Middle East Eye website, the writer David Hurst said: Three years ago in the month of Ramadan, the Saudi Prince Muhammad bin Salman completed his plot to overthrow his elder cousin Muhammad bin Nayef, to become crown prince and gain the loyalty of the rest of the family in one of the palaces Property near the Kaaba in Mecca.
However, the discrepancy between then and the current time could not be more clear than it is now, according to the report.
The palace coup
Hearst explained that three years ago, the young prince was at the height of his power, as the palace coup made him control the crown. On the other hand, many family members, who will be sentenced to death by Muhammad Bin Salman, later rushed to Makkah Al-Mukarramah to bow before him and kiss his hand.
Mecca was full of worshipers and the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia was rich, imposing its will on Yemen. Also, the whole world believed the myth that a reformer would transform the country and the entire region and make it modern.
Today, for the first time in decades, here is Mecca empty of its thrones from the people except for the few worshipers who were separated by two meters. On the other hand, thousands of migrant workers are detained in the slums behind the luxury hotel ring that surrounds the Kaaba, where they live without an adequate health system, and have the highest incidence of Covid-19 virus in the country.
The writer mentioned that Mecca is an example of what is the case in the rest of the country. In just five years, the total external debt of Saudi Arabia increased significantly from less than $ 12 billion in 2014 to $ 183 billion at the end of 2019. During the same period, its cash reserves decreased from $ 732 billion to $ 499 billion.
In October 2018, Mohammed bin Salman announced that the Public Investment Fund was "approaching" $ 400 billion in assets and would exceed $ 600 billion by 2020, and today it is only $ 320 billion.
In fact, part of these sums may be sufficient to restart and revive the industry and ensure an adequate standard of living for the Saudis. Instead, the nation faces a long period of austerity while its rulers continue to live in unreasonable luxury.
An unwanted person
Hurst mentioned that since the killing of Saudi journalist Jamal Khashoggi, Muhammad bin Salman has become an unwanted figure in Washington and in all European capitals. Also, there are at least 20 princes in prison after a series of purges.
Consequently, it can no longer be denied that Saudi Arabia has lost money, influence, power and friends under his authority. It is true that he will host the G20 in Riyadh in November, but as the oil price falls, his country's accession to that elitist group will be subject to scrutiny.
If you told anyone three years ago that capitals around the world would one day be empty because of a virus spreading, few would have believed you. However, a limited number of people would also believe that the decline in Saudi wealth would be severe and rapid.
So what really happened that night three years ago? And why did Muhammad bin Salman order three cleansing operations, two targeting his family, after receiving such a large coronation?
Majlis Ould Mita from the beginning
the writer indicated that it is worth returning to that exciting night three years ago. At that time, Bin Nayef was said to have been stripped of all his positions and Muhammad bin Salman had been appointed in a vote by the Saudi Allegiance Commission, a loyalty council established by former King Abdullah. But we now know that the committee did not actually meet and the vote took place by phone. In other words, the vote itself was illegal even through its own rules.
The creation of the council took place by a special decree in 2006. Indeed, it was supposed to be an important reform of absolute ownership without a constitution, as it aims to change how future monarchs are appointed. It is reported that the sons of the nation's founder, King Abdulaziz or their sons, occupy 34 positions in the assembly, while the king and the crown prince appoint two more seats. In this way, all branches of Al Saud are represented.
However, the project was born dead from the beginning, as King Abdullah relieved himself of the process and died before the council began work. Also, three of the Crown Prince, Sultan bin Abdulaziz, Nayef bin Abdulaziz and Salman bin Abdulaziz, were appointed without the Allegiance Commission participating in the decision.
However, King Abdullah was aiming to use this system to establish the position of his son, Prince Miteb, as the next generation of rulers. However, he could not do it in one step, so he created a new position under the name "Deputy Crown Prince". His plan was to remove Salman the crown prince and appoint Prince Muqrin to the post, while Miteb would be his deputy. However, he died before he could make these moves.
Kabir failed, the
author explained that when Salman ascended the throne, he initially made Muqrin the crown prince and Muhammad bin Nayef his deputy. Three months later, Muqrin was replaced by Bin Nayef, and Muhammad bin Salman was appointed Deputy Crown Prince. Thus, that fateful night three years ago was the first major test of the Loyalty Council, which failed miserably.
The Majlis had lost its president, Mishaal bin Abdulaziz, who had died in May 2017 and had not been replaced. According to the rules of the commission, its meetings are held in the presence of two thirds of the members, in the presence of a president, and by more than half of the members voting on any decision.
There was neither an actual meeting nor a president, and therefore the quorum was not completed. Later, it was revealed that 31 out of 34 members voted for Muhammad bin Salman, but this happened on the phone. In all likelihood, the removal of Bin Nayef and the elevation of Bin Salman to the position of the Crown Prince was illegal and illegal.
On the other hand, this matter constituted a constitutional obstacle for the young prince since his ascension to the throne, which explains his sensitivity against two of his most prominent rivals, who are currently in prison.
The first is bin Nayef, who was initially accused of being a drug addict and now a traitor and a mastermind of a coup d'etat, and the second is the king's brother, Ahmed bin Abdul Aziz, who returned from London for two clear purposes and that is to install himself as chairman of the pledge committee and to oppose the succession of bin Salman to the throne.
Losing Card
While these two princes are still alive, Muhammad bin Salman knows that there is a personal threat. In fact, four members of the Allegiance Commission were targeted in the most recent campaign by the Crown Prince, with three of them either imprisoned or interrogated, while the fourth obtained citizenship from Cyprus in an attempt to escape. Now, it is reported that some imprisoned royal family members are using pressure groups in Washington to remind Congress of their fate.
The aim of the pledge of allegiance was to be a mechanism to transfer the loyalty of the Al Saud from one king to another, but this did not happen, but rather launched a series of brutal purges, which deepened the political crisis of the Crown Prince while he was about to seize the grand prize.
Hurst considered that all bin Salman’s decisions since then were wrong, from the Yemen war, to the privatization of Aramco, then the project to build the desert city of Neum, the diversification plan for the economy within Vision 2030, the response to Iran, the oil price war, and dealing with the Corona crisis.
The writer added that Trump, in turn, showed clear indications that Saudi Arabia was no longer a high priority, as he did not react when Iranian drones and cruise missiles destroyed two Saudi oil installations, which reduced Saudi oil production by half for several weeks, He also recently decided to withdraw the US Patriot missile batteries from the kingdom.
Hurst concluded that the Saudi crown prince would try to gamble again to leapfrog all the defeats he endured through the last period by seizing power from his father.
According to the writer, this step will not lead to the stability of the kingdom, but rather will increase the severity of the problems and crises that it is going through in the current period, which are moving the country into the unknown.