(Foresight of the two sessions) How to set the annual target of China's economic development under the impact of the epidemic?

  China News Agency, Beijing, May 19 Question: What is the annual target for China's economic development under the impact of the epidemic?

  China News Agency reporter Wang Enbo

  How to set the annual target of China's economic development is one of the most talked about topics in the previous two sessions of the country.

  Since the beginning of this year, the sudden new outbreak of pneumonia has had an unprecedented impact on China's economic and social development. All parties are looking forward to seeing how the upcoming 2020 National Two Sessions will set the tone for the development of the year.

Drawing: Lei Yuzhu

  In the first quarter, China ’s GDP fell by 6.8% year-on-year, marking the first negative growth since the quarterly GDP accounting. While major strategic achievements have been made in the prevention and control of domestic epidemic prevention and control, the spread of overseas epidemics, global trade pressure, and financial market turmoil have left China's economic prospects uncertain.

  Especially in the context of the postponement of the two conferences, discussions on how to set China's economic development goals for this year have continued for more than a month. In particular, whether to cancel the GDP growth target has caused great controversy.

  Those who support the cancellation of growth targets believe that the economic situation under the epidemic is still unclear, and setting specific targets may bring "side effects." For example, Ma Jun, member of the Bank of China's Monetary Policy Committee, is concerned that once the growth target is too high, the macro policy may be "kidnapped" and cause "flood flooding." He suggested that the main objective of economic policy should be changed to stabilize employment and provide social security after unemployment.

  Those who are in favor of retaining growth targets believe that China's economy is in a critical period of resumption of production and that setting reasonable targets is conducive to stabilizing expectations. According to Zhang Ming, director of the International Investment Research Office of the Institute of World Economics and Politics of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, stable employment is positively related to economic growth, so this year should still formulate a flexible annual growth target to coordinate resource allocation.

Data map: Jiangxi Nanchang High-tech Zone quickly sent employees to the enterprise through charter flights. Photo courtesy of Jiangxi Provincial Department of Industry and Information Technology

  On the surface, the above views are diametrically opposed, but there is no lack of commonalities in the internal logic.

  At a time when China's economy is changing from a high-speed to a high-quality development, people talk about setting a growth target or not, it is no longer about a beautiful number, but how to make the target closer to reality, benefit people's livelihood, and guide development . This is also an important criterion that the Chinese government follows when building a frame of reference for economic development.

  In fact, unlike the previous mandatory targets, the annual economic development indicators set by the Chinese government now play a more predictive role. Looking at the government work reports of the past few years, the GDP growth expectations are mostly presented in a "left and right" flexible expression or interval. The purpose is to look forward to the development path and potential of the next year, rather than giving yourself a "digital baggage".

  At present, all parties are concerned about the annual GDP growth target geometry, more because China plans to achieve a comprehensive well-off this year, and "GDP is doubled from 2010" is one of the important indicators, and achieving this indicator requires a certain economic growth rate.

Data Map: Ningbo Zhoushan Port. Photo by Zhang Bin

  However, in the view of Wang Yiming, the former deputy director of the Development Research Center of the State Council, the comprehensive construction of a well-off society is a comprehensive and profound change that involves economic, political, cultural, social, and ecological aspects.

  As it said, the word "xiaokang" reflects the living standard and state of the people. A comprehensive well-off society includes a complete set of indicator systems, including both quantitative targets for doubling GDP and per capita income of urban and rural residents, quality targets that focus on gaining a sense of poverty alleviation, and “soft targets” such as politics, culture, and ecological civilization.

  According to this, Wang Yiming pointed out that even if some quantitative targets have a slight gap in statistics, this gap is caused by the epidemic situation and will not affect the overall process of building a well-off society in general.

  Needless to say, the epidemic severely affected the order of production and life, and the fight against the epidemic made the Chinese economy pay the necessary and necessary price, and to some extent disrupted the original development steps.

  But in the words of Ning Jizhe, deputy director of the National Development and Reform Commission and director of the National Bureau of Statistics, the epidemic has a greater impact on China's economic performance but the impact is generally controllable, and it will not and will not change the long-term development trend of the Chinese economy.

Information figure: "May Day" holiday Haikou Riyue Plaza Duty Free Shop visitors are very popular. Photo by Luo Yunfei

  Despite the negative growth of GDP in the first quarter, China ’s livelihood security is strong and the overall economic and social stability is stable; although some traditional industries are trapped, the epidemic has not hurt the fundamental productivity, and new kinetic energy such as the digital economy has grown even more against the trend; Stability has been hit, but the orderly advancement of resumption of production and production highlights the enormous resilience of the Chinese economy.

  Facing the complicated situation, following the "Six Stability", the recent Politburo meeting proposed the "Six Guarantees", highlighting that China's economic policies now emphasize more on maintaining strategic strength, adhere to the bottom line of thinking, and focus on holding the basic plate, "growth for growth." ".

  From this point of view, regardless of whether specific figures are set for GDP and other indicators, the reference system established by the National People's Congress and the NPC for this year's economic development will focus on responding to the impact of the epidemic, ensuring the smooth operation of the economy, and cooperating with the long-term tasks of building a well-off society and ensuring basic livelihoods. Convergence. Following this direction, from issuing special national bonds to raising the deficit rate, how China will put the macro policy package into effect is also expected to come to an answer this May. (Finish)