“The time of unfulfilled promises”: what results did Vladimir Zelensky achieve during the year in power

A year ago, the inauguration of the new President of Ukraine Vladimir Zelensky took place in the Verkhovna Rada.

He won the second round, gaining 73.22% of the vote. His rival Petro Poroshenko received 24.45% of the vote and resigned as head of state.

During the election campaign, Zelensky harshly criticized the authorities and promised a radical change to the country. His program said that Ukraine should become a country in which "doctors and teachers receive real salaries, and corrupt officials - real terms," ​​and "grandmother receives a decent pension, not a heart attack from a utility bill."

Zelensky guaranteed that in the event of his victory in the country, a law would be passed on the abolition of parliamentary immunity and the impeachment of the President of Ukraine. The parliamentary immunity was indeed canceled, although experts warned that such a move undermines the democratic principle of separation of powers. An impeachment law was also passed. 

• Inauguration of Vladimir Zelensky
• Reuters
• © Valentyn Ogirenko

Zelensky also promised a series of transformations in the economic field. It was planned to replace the income tax with the tax on the withdrawn capital. This law was not adopted, although a similar initiative was put forward by the administration of Petro Poroshenko. Announced and the abolition of the moratorium on the sale of agricultural land - this item has implemented a policy program.

According to experts, the most important role in the victory of Vladimir Zelensky was played not so much by his program as by the PR receptions employed by his team. In fact, preparations for the election campaign began in 2015, when the series “Servant of the People” was released on television, in which Zelensky played a major role. During the real election race, he adopted the rhetoric of film characters.

The campaign of the current president of Ukraine won seven nominations for the annual European Political Advisers Association (EAPC) Polaris Awards, including such as “Best Use of Humor” and “Best Use of Negative or Contrast”.

As Vladimir Shapovalov, deputy director of the Institute of History and Politics of Moscow State Pedagogical University, noted in an interview with RT, the PR campaign and the artist’s self-presentation skills played a key role in Zelensky’s victory.

“As for his program, it is more appropriate to talk not about the program itself, but about the expectations that Zelensky could inspire Ukrainians. They expected radical changes from him. And his main trump card was precisely the lack of political experience, that Zelensky was a new person in politics, ”the expert explained.

A professional comedian and showman, Zelensky was able to easily gain the attention and sympathy of Ukrainians, but practical steps to improve the political and socio-economic situation in the country are difficult for him, experts say.

"He returned to the position of Poroshenko"

First of all, voters counted on the fact that, having received power, Zelensky will achieve an end to the military conflict in the Donbass. During his inaugural address, the politician called it his “first task”.

“I can assure you that I’m ready for anything so that our heroes do not die anymore. And I’m definitely not afraid to make difficult decisions, I’m ready to lose my popularity, my ratings, and, if necessary, I’ll be ready to lose my position so that peace only comes, ”Zelensky said then.

At first, some progress was really outlined. In October, Kiev agreed with the Steinmeier formula, which defines the mechanism for holding elections in the Donbas and introducing a special status for the region. In addition, Zelensky managed to carry out the withdrawal of troops in the areas of the settlements Petrovskoye and Zolotoe, despite the active resistance of the Ukrainian radicals. In December 2019, the first “Norman Four” summit of the leaders of Ukraine, Russia, France and Germany took place in Paris in more than three years.

• Vladimir Zelensky during a trip to the Armed Forces of Ukraine in the Donbass
• Reuters
• © Ukrainian Presidential Press Service / Handout

Following the results of the negotiations, the parties reaffirmed their commitment to the Minsk agreements, and also announced the exchange of retained persons between Ukraine and the self-proclaimed republics. The exchange of prisoners took place on December 29. The participants of the “Norman Four” also agreed on the redeployment of forces in the Donbass at three additional points until March 2020 and on the need to comply with the ceasefire.

However, the implementation of the political part of the Minsk agreements is sabotaged by the Zelensky administration. Kiev is trying to review the already signed agreements in its favor and has not yet carried out constitutional reform. Most of all, the Zelensky government is worried about the border issue. The Ukrainian side requires that control over the border with Russia be transferred to Kiev before the elections in the territory of unrecognized republics, although this procedure contradicts the Minsk agreements.

As the head of the Ukrainian Center for Political and Economic Analysis, Aleksandr Kava, said in an interview with RT, there is no need to speak about the settlement of the Donbass conflict so far.

“We see that after a certain warming that occurred after the exchange of prisoners, Zelensky, in fact, returned to Poroshenko’s position on this issue. Obviously, it is impossible to resolve the conflict with such an approach, ”the expert noted.

A similar point of view in an interview with RT was expressed by the president of the Center for System Analysis and Forecasting Rostislav Ishchenko.

“Ukraine never intended to implement the Minsk agreements. The authorities just want to somehow regain control of the Donbass, ”the expert said.

The current authorities are not ready to shed light on the real background of the events of 2013-2014. Recall that the catalyst for the coup in Ukraine in February 2014 was the shooting of people in the center of Kiev, then both protesters and law enforcement officers were killed. 

Vladimir Zelensky has repeatedly stated the need for a full investigation of these crimes, but the situation has not moved forward. As well as in the case of the killing of people in the Odessa House of Trade Unions on May 2, 2014.

• Julia Kuzmenko, detained on suspicion of involvement in the murder of Pavel Sheremet
• Reuters
• © Sergiy Karazy

Some progress has been outlined only in the murder of journalist Pavel Sheremet. In December 2019, a group of persons suspected of a crime was detained in Ukraine. All of them turned out to be activists of the Euromaidan. However, in January 2020, the Prosecutor General of Ukraine Ruslan Ryaboshapka said there was a lack of evidence to transfer the case to court.

According to Rostislav Ishchenko, there is practically no reason to hope that resonant crimes will be solved.

“Few people are interested in the truth, because people who are still directly or indirectly in power are involved in these events in one way or another,” the expert is sure.

Anti-Russian course

The situation in Russian-Ukrainian relations, which completely degraded after 2014, has not changed too.

As Russian President Vladimir Putin said in July 2019, the Kiev authorities should understand that "the common interests are not confrontation between Russia and Ukraine, but the development of pragmatic cooperation based on trust and mutual understanding."

Putin recalled that Zelensky from his predecessor got "unsightly baggage" in the form of violent Ukrainization, rampant neo-Nazism and a ban on the use of the native language for millions of Russian-speaking residents of the country. 

At the beginning of his presidency, Vladimir Zelensky and members of his team made conflicting statements on the status of the Russian language. As Zelensky himself stated in July 2019, the Russian language could receive special status in the Donbass after the end of the war.

However, Zelensky continued the course begun by his predecessor. In March 2020, Zelensky signed the law "On Complete General Secondary Education", which provides for a gradual reduction in the teaching of subjects in languages ​​of national minorities, including Russian.

The document supplemented the norms adopted during the presidency of Petro Poroshenko, according to which the Russian language lost its official status and was expelled from the education system. 

In addition, in May 2020, Zelensky signed a decree extending sanctions against a number of Russian media, including radio stations and television channels, and also extended the blocking of Russian Internet services and social networks in Ukraine.

At the same time, Zelensky went further than his predecessor, imposing sanctions against a number of scientific and cultural organizations, including the State Hermitage and the Moscow State University named after M.V. Lomonosov.

According to Vladimir Shapovalov, Zelensky was initially perceived as a moderate candidate, an alternative to radical nationalism and Russophobia.

“However, during the year of his presidency, not a single discriminatory law was repealed. Yes, Zelensky does not use radical rhetoric, but follows the previous course. He is not able to take a firm stand and constantly maneuvers between East and West. And by imposing sanctions against Moscow State University and the Hermitage, he completely surpassed Poroshenko in fomenting a confrontation with Russia, ”the expert noted.

IMF Servant

During the election campaign, Zelensky paid considerable attention to the topic of high utility tariffs and promised to lower them. However, the day after the second round of the presidential election, the rhetoric of the politician and his team changed. Ukrainian media drew attention to this, accusing him of rejecting his statements. This, in particular, was drawn to the attention of Irina Gerashchenko, who occupied the chair of the First Vice-Speaker of the Verkhovna Rada at that time.

“It pulls on a record in a Guinness book! In less than 24 hours after the election, they completely refute all their campaign promises, ”she said.

But Zelensky fulfilled the promise to open the agricultural land market. This was one of the IMF's key conditions for Kiev to obtain a new credit line.

The new president was not stopped by the fact that the vast majority of Ukrainians are opposed to lifting the moratorium on the sale of agricultural land. According to a survey conducted in February 2020 by the Kiev International Institute of Sociology (KIIS), at that time 62% of respondents opposed the opening of the land market.

As Mikhail Krivoguz, a leading researcher at IMEMO RAS, explained in a RT commentary, Zelensky was forced to agree to the terms of the IMF.

“He had no other choice. After the failure of 2014 and 2015, Ukraine showed a rather high growth rate of GDP. But in dollar terms, GDP has still not reached the level of 2011-2012. In addition, Ukraine will face very serious payments on foreign debt, and Kiev has no money. At the same time, new IMF loans go to plugging budget holes, and not to creating new jobs, ”the expert noted in a comment to RT.

The second key IMF demand for Ukraine is the adoption of the so-called “anti-Colomian” law. So the Ukrainian media call the bill banning the return of nationalized banking assets to former owners. If the bill is adopted, the oligarch and ex-head of the Dnipropetrovsk Regional State Administration Igor Kolomoisky will not be able to regain the country's largest bank, PrivatBank. Recall that a financial institution was nationalized in 2016.

However, the bill met with serious resistance from many deputies of the Parliament and has not yet been adopted.

In addition, during the first year of the presidency, Vladimir Zelensky outlined a number of other reforms. So, the authorities planned to carry out large-scale privatization of state assets in 2020. However, already in February, the government adjusted the list of enterprises to be sold. Subsequently, the start of privatization had to be postponed due to the coronavirus pandemic. But the law on the concession was signed by Zelensky in October 2019. It is assumed that the norm will allow to involve private owners in the management of state property.

The achievements of the Zelensky administration include the conclusion of a contract for the transit of Russian gas. The contract was signed a few hours before the end of the current agreement. 

Friendly streak

The central motive for Zelensky’s campaign was the promise to renew the country's political elite. In the early parliamentary elections, the pro-presidential party "Servant of the People" won most of the mandates. As a result, the head of state was able to form a government without negotiations with other parliamentary factions.

Also during the election campaign, Zelensky promised that he would not allow nepotism when updating the personnel of the government, and managers would be recruited only from professionals.

However, in practice, it turned out that the main contenders for public office under the new government were former friends and colleagues of the new president. So, the former head of the press service of the studio "Quarter 95" Tatyana Rudenko became a member of the National Council of Ukraine on television and radio broadcasting.

• Ivan Bakanov
• © Press Service of the President of Ukraine

Zelensky’s childhood friend Ivan Bakanov headed the Security Service of Ukraine (SBU).

In total, in the first year of his presidency, Zelensky appointed about three dozen people from his former entourage to government posts.

However, some officials from the time of the presidency Poroshenko managed to maintain their posts. First of all, experts note the figure of the head of the Ministry of Internal Affairs Arsen Avakov, as well as the leadership of NAK Naftogaz, which the previous authorities of the country could not update.

As noted by Mikhail Krivoguz, NAK Naftogaz has turned into such a powerful structure that its leadership is even afraid to touch the politicians.

“And with Avakov everything is clear. He has the strongest positions, it is still unknown who has great influence, Zelensky or Avakov, ”said Krivoguz. 

Experts also note Zelensky’s return to Ukrainian politics of Mikhail Saakashvili - he led the reform executive committee.

“Basically, new managers are nominated on the basis of loyalty or friendly recommendations. Therefore, we can talk about the visibility of a personnel update, ”Krivoguz believes.

A similar point of view is shared by Alexander Kava. In his opinion, Zelensky got an even less professional team than Poroshenko.

“We could not cope with the influence of the oligarchy on power, they both controlled Ukrainian politics and continue to do so,” the expert noted.

At the same time, one of the campaign slogans of Zelensky was "Spring will come - we will plant." Commenting on the decision of the Constitutional Court to abolish the criminal punishment for officials for illegal enrichment, Zelensky said that he would hold all corrupt officials accountable in the event of their victory.  

“Today’s authorities, marching, decided to take with them everything stolen from the people. Together with experts, we will prepare our answer so that none of them escapes responsibility. There are many candidates, but one of them will go to jail without a doubt! ”Zelensky wrote then on Facebook, clearly hinting at Poroshenko, whose campaign slogan was“ There are many candidates, there is only one president. ”

• Gettyimages.ru
• © golubovy

Zelensky’s team did indeed return to the Criminal Code an article punishing officials for illegal enrichment. However, high-profile arrests and trials against odious officials did not wait for voters.

“There really is no progress in the fight against corruption. As long as there is only the anti-corruption system that was built during the time of Poroshenko, it is ineffective, ”said Alexander Kava.

The lack of progress in the fight against corruption is noted by Zelensky himself.

“We promised citizens victory over corruption. Now it’s not even a draw, ”said the President of Ukraine, speaking in Parliament in March.

According to Rostislav Ishchenko, in Ukraine no one was going to seriously fight corruption.

“If we subtract corruption from the Ukrainian state, it will simply disappear,” the expert said.

Crisis of confidence

According to experts, the unpopular reforms and Zelensky’s inability to fulfill his campaign promises led to a decrease in his rating. According to a poll conducted by the Rating group on May 12–13, 2020, if the presidential election were held in the near future, 39.3% of the population of Ukraine would vote for Zelensky.

According to Alexander Kava, one of the reasons for Zelensky’s rating drop is “initially high expectations of his voters.”

It will be more and more difficult to change the situation in their favor Zelensky every month, the RT source in the Office of the Ukrainian President is sure.

“Zelensky is an inexperienced politician, and this greatly affects his decisions. The Party of the Servant of the People party is no longer a monolithic structure, and many deputies ignore the president’s calls. In the fall, the parliamentary crisis may worsen, and this will hit Zelensky’s positions, ”the source said.

In turn, the representative of the Party of the Servant of the People, in a conversation with RT, said that the time for conducting quick reforms in Ukraine had been missed.

“It becomes much more difficult to find votes for important laws; MPs no longer want to blindly fulfill the requirements of the President’s Office. Moreover, no changes for the better are happening. The last year has shown that Zelensky does not have a strong team of like-minded people. Therefore, I think that in the coming year Ukraine will face a political crisis and a total drop in confidence in the President’s Office, ”the deputy explained.

A similar point of view is shared by Vladimir Shapovalov.

“The year of Zelensky’s presidency has become a time of unfulfilled promises. Although he had a political carte blanche and a large credit of trust among the population. But he showed himself to be a weak president, he is afraid to act decisively and disperse radical nationalists. But while he maneuvers, his political support is melting away, ”the expert summed up.