With the due date of the lifting of the arms embargo approaching, according to Security Council Resolution 2231, which followed the announcement of reaching the nuclear agreement between Iran and the "5 + 1" group on July 14, 2015, the United States of America began launching a diplomatic campaign internationally to stop lifting This ban, in October, based on the fact that this would threaten security and stability in the region, which the latter responded to by saying that Washington is not a party to the agreement after its withdrawal from it two years ago, indicating the possibility of adopting more escalating options in the event that the US President Donald's administration managed Trump from attracting international support for her position on this To context in a way that suggests that there is a new crisis looming, which will escalate in the coming stage.
Parallel steps
The range of differences between Iran and the United States of America has widened again due to the approaching date of the lifting of the arms embargo imposed on Iran under Resolution 2231, in October, as Washington seeks to prevent the implementation of this entitlement on time, and exerts pressure in this context on Germany and France And Britain in particular, which are the European countries that were involved from the beginning in negotiations with Iran, which ended in reaching the nuclear agreement that is about to end its fifth year in July.
It also appears that it will seek talks with China and Russia to persuade them to support the new trend of extending the embargo, and in this context, US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo said on April 29 that "Washington is examining all options to extend the arms embargo." In this context, he appears to be referring to the preparation of a new legal wording that confirms that the United States is still a partner in the agreement, as it is still bound by previous international resolutions on it. As a prelude to using this in the coming stage to enhance the possibility of extending the embargo or exerting pressure on countries that can conclude deals with Iran in this regard.
Possible fallout
According to Washington's vision, the implementation of this entitlement may negatively affect the current approach it adopts toward Iran, and is based on an unprecedented rise in pressure to push the latter to change its current policy, and to accept negotiations to reach a new agreement that does not include what are called "gaps" Experiencing the current agreement. In other words, Washington believes that Iran's obtaining this important strategic return from the nuclear agreement could impose the following consequences:
1- Continued escalation
Washington believes that lifting the arms embargo will send a wrong message to Iran that it has the ability to challenge the American "will" and circumvent the pressures and sanctions imposed by Washington, in a way that will push it to continue the current escalation policy that is not limited to raising the level of its nuclear activities, but also extends to launching a satellite. For military purposes, approaching the American naval vessels in the waters of the Arabian Gulf, and managing the escalation carried out by the militias loyal to it in Iraq and targeting their interests, as part of its efforts to raise the cost of the killing of Qassem Soleimani, commander of the Quds Force, on the third of last January.
2- Enhancing the role of competitors
Lifting this ban will expand the scope of bilateral relations between Iran and China and Russia in particular, which will extend to the military field in this case, as previous reports indicated that Tehran might seek to conclude military deals with the two countries to obtain advanced military equipment, and it has become like These deals are resentful on the part of Washington, considering that this deducts its influence in the region.
3- Continue to support allies
Several circles in Washington express particular concern that Iran may take advantage of the lifting of the embargo to continue military support to its allies, in a manner inconsistent with its interests and accounts regarding some regional issues, especially regarding the Syrian file and the ongoing escalation between Iran and its allies on the one hand and Israel on the other. Hence, one can explain the reasons why Tel Aviv was keen to support the efforts of the American administration to extend the current ban.
Advance warnings
Iran, in turn, seems significantly interested in lifting the arms embargo, and the government of Iranian President Hassan Rouhani a year ago was keen to promote the positive repercussions that the lifting of the ban would impose, and tried to invest that to respond to the strong criticism that it was exposed to, and still is, by the main institutions in The state and the fundamentalist conservative movement, due to the decline in the revenues of the nuclear deal after the United States withdrew from it and imposed new sanctions on Iran.
Hence, Tehran was quick to send advance warnings of the repercussions that could result in any possible extension of the embargo, which means that it does not exclude the success of the efforts made by the United States at the present time, despite the public opposition expressed by some powers towards it, such as Russia, as it included The messages that Rouhani sent to the forces involved in the agreement, warning of the dire consequences that could be extended by the extension of the embargo, but the threat was more evident in the words of the Secretary-General of the Supreme Council for National Security Ali Shamkhani, who said on May 3, that “the dead body” For the nuclear deal you will go to death I want to circumvent the decision through 2231 and the continuation of the arms embargo ».
Iran’s insistence on implementing the lifting of the embargo on time and warning about the consequences of the counter-track for that is due to several considerations, the most prominent of which are:
1- The last option
Although Tehran has more than once indicated a withdrawal from the nuclear agreement along the lines of the step taken by the United States two years ago, it was keen to avoid this option already because of the new data that it might see as incompatible with its interests at the present time, especially with regard to strengthening A wider confrontation with the United States or Israel will erupt in the next stage. Hence, Iran believes that Washington's success in extending the embargo may inevitably push it to this option that it does not like, given that extending the embargo has spent, in the view of some Iranian officials, the rest of the agreement, and there is no longer what causes Iran to adhere to it after that.
2- Development of the military sectors
Tehran believes that its specific capabilities are limited to specific areas such as missiles and naval forces, which are important sectors that cannot be ignored, but this does not deny that there is a great shortage experienced by other sectors, such as armored vehicles, which is what drives them at the present time to insist on developing these sectors, and they were It is of the opinion that lifting the arms embargo could help it in this regard.
3- Tightening the blockade
Any potential success for Washington in attracting the support of the international powers involved in the nuclear agreement to extend the embargo indicates the weak results of the Iranian efforts in the past period to contain the consequences of US sanctions and circumvent them, a variable that will not only multiply the impact of those sanctions, but rather send a message to Washington pushing it To move forward in the current policy, so that Iran may retract its positions on various issues.
A new battle
It seems that the international scene will witness a new diplomatic battle between Tehran and Washington, perhaps with a direct or indirect escalation in the region, as the two sides race to lift or extend the arms embargo.
- Tehran was quick to issue advance warnings of the possible consequences of any possible extension of the arms embargo, which means that it does not exclude the success of the US efforts at the present time, despite the public opposition expressed by some powers towards it, such as Russia.