Lotan: Russian publications criticize Assad .. Have the ties between Moscow and Damascus cracked?

Four and a half years after the start of the Russian military operation in Syria, the rift began to appear between Moscow and Damascus, and even semi-official writings - published in Russia - criticized the inability of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad to find a political settlement to the conflict that is tearing his country apart.

This is how the Swiss newspaper Lutan summarized - in an article by Emmanuel Greenspan - what had become the case between the two allies, based on this from an article by the former Russian ambassador in Damascus Alexander Aksinionuk, where she said that it reflects the growing Russian frustration with the Syrian President Bashar al-Assad.

The article of the Russian diplomat - who is a prominent member of an influential Assembly of Experts serving the Kremlin - harshly criticizes an unprecedented amount, and is not consistent with the speech that Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov presents to the media.

"It is often difficult to distinguish between anti-terrorism and government violence against the opposition," says Xinyonyuk, noting the recent escalation of tension in southwestern Syria, where "mysterious killings, threats and kidnappings have become more frequent, among other fatal errors committed by Syrian intelligence." Explaining that the errors of these devices are in fact the source of escalation.

Increased anger

Frankly devoid of diplomacy addressed to the Syrian president, the former ambassador in Damascus describes "bribery in the trade, transport, transit and humanitarian convoys sector in favor of a chain consisting of certain units of the army, security services, mediators and senior businessmen traditionally loyal to the president's family," noting that a group of interests is formed at the summit Not "concerned with a peaceful settlement."

The Russian diplomat said that those who want political reform "cannot express it publicly because of the prevailing atmosphere of fear and the domination of secret services." The former ambassador concluded that the country "needs at least $ 250 billion, which is 12 times the current GDP," and that "economic reconstruction and development of a political system are based only on a comprehensive approach and international approval."

However - the newspaper says - the Syrian dictator's inflexibility foiled all Russian diplomatic initiatives to start a political dialogue with the opposition, and his persistent efforts to control and extract Idlib province from Turkish-backed rebels were worse than that, as they led to direct clashes between Turks and Russians In late February, it was almost turning into a major war had it not been avoided by a phone call between President Vladimir Putin and his Turkish counterpart Recep Tayyip Erdogan.

As a result, the newspaper says, Moscow is angry at seeing Bashar al-Assad maneuvering among his various supporters, including Iran and the UAE in the recent period, after it reopened its embassy in Damascus in 2018.

The Swiss newspaper commented that the article, which summarized its content, first appeared on April 17 on the Valday Club website, and is affiliated with another group of influential experts who are regularly consulted by Putin, which gives him weight as either a message alerting the expert community to a change in policy. , Or a message to increase pressure on the target.

For independent international relations expert Vladimir Frolov, Lutan says, the article is above all a sign that Russian diplomacy is frustrated by its declining influence on the Syrian dossier in favor of the army, especially as Aksinonuk has always had a bad opinion on Assad, knowing that Russian diplomacy does not rest for a failed leader Geneva talks about the constitution, but Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoyogo - like Putin - is still on Assad's side.

The newspaper pointed out that in the wake of the article, Russian media supporting the Kremlin published an unusual poll stating that only 32% of Syrians support Bashar Al-Assad, suggesting his replacement, before the article that appeared on the Federal News Agency website was deleted.

But observers realize that this agency is affiliated with businessman Evgeny Bergugen, one of Putin's ancient acquaintances, and the head of mercenaries "Wagner Group" that is fighting in Syria and Libya after its activity in Ukraine, and is the losing competitor for oil and chemical assets in Syria, which Damascus has favored Iranian investors.

Vladimir Frolov believes that "this anti-Assad media campaign is largely carried out at the initiative of the Bergugen Foundation, knowing that it is a means for some actors in Moscow to send signals of Russian discontent.