Washington (AFP)
More cautious than ever, the much-listened to doctor Anthony Fauci estimated Thursday that the Americans could perhaps take a summer vacation, but under conditions, whereas a stabilization of the number of hospitalizations suggests a first turning point in the Covid-19 pandemic.
Like other countries struck before them, the United States awaits a return to normalcy. President Donald Trump is in a hurry to reopen the country and restart a disaster-stricken economy.
But university and government experts, like Doctor Fauci, warn that even if the long-awaited peak of the epidemic was reached, the reopening will not be possible overnight. The country will have to be patient, they say, and change its habits permanently until there is a vaccine, in order to prepare for a second wave - since the coronavirus will not have disappeared .
All eyes are immediately on New York. Each April day, the state registered more than 8,000 new cases a day, overwhelming its resuscitation services. Governor Andrew Cuomo said on Wednesday that the measures to contain and shut down businesses, which were passed 18 days ago, were bearing fruit, and that the number of new hospitalizations was starting to drop.
But variations from day to day do not form a trend. The governor will take stock of the last 24 hours in the middle of the day on Thursday.
The United States, big as a continent, is not hit with the same intensity. The city of Washington, 350 km south of New York, has so far been relatively spared, for example. The model used by the authorities of the capital predicts a peak ... only at the very end of June.
The most cited model (IHME), which takes into account how the epidemic has evolved in China and Europe, has in recent days revised down several times the forecast balance of the first wave in the United States: from 93,000 to 82,000 then 60,000 deaths.
The American "peak" would be reached this weekend, according to this model used in particular at the White House, but considered too optimistic by certain States, which prefer to marry several models, in the manner of weather forecasts, no model being perfect .
"It is thanks to the Americans who do a good job. Social distancing, etc. Continue!" tweeted Donald Trump.
- "New normal" -
When is the deconfinement? Maybe not until June, the mayor of New York, Bill de Blasio, warned on Thursday.
It will inevitably be gradual and regional, said Anthony Fauci, director of the American Institute of Infectious Diseases, representative of the scientific community in the White House task force that advises Donald Trump on the epidemic.
Firstly because the containment orders were decreed state by state, by the governors, and not nationally by the president, who only issued instructions on distance and telework until April 30.
But also, and above all, because there are rural pockets where the number of cases still doubles every two days.
While California, for example, after fearing the worst, has been reassured enough to begin donating respirators and medical equipment to other states. Washington State, which registered the first Covid-19 case on January 21, closed the temporary hospital the military had installed on Wednesday so that other states could benefit.
Rather than a return to life before, we must prepare for a "new normal", say experts.
"As long as most people don't have immunity, resuming normal activities will quickly spread the contagion," wrote Tom Frieden, former head of the Centers for Disease Prevention and Control (CDC).
It offers conditions for any deconfinement: widely available screening tests; plans to isolate the sick, and trace and quarantine their contacts; and a general upgrade of hospitals to absorb any future wave.
"When that is done, we will have to reopen the tap gradually rather than opening the valves all at once and risking an explosion of new cases," he wrote on Think Global Health.
Restaurants may have to reopen with a limited number of tables, schools may not all reopen at the same time.
Can Americans get out of their homes and enjoy the summer vacation? "It could be there," said Anthony Fauci, on CBS Thursday, but without loosening the barrier measures.
Social distancing will be part of the decor for a long time, he said. He even suggests, half seriously, that the Americans give up the practice of shaking hands.
© 2020 AFP