(Fighting against New Coronary Pneumonia) Proposal for the fight against the epidemic: Tu Guangshao: China is striving to achieve a virtuous circle of epidemic control and economic recovery
China News Agency, Beijing, April 7 Telegram title: Proposal for fighting the "epidemic": Tu Guangshao: China is working hard to achieve a virtuous cycle of epidemic control and economic recovery
China News Agency reporter Lu Mei
The new coronary pneumonia epidemic has caused severe impacts and major challenges to China and the world economy. Tu Guangshao, member of the National Committee of the Chinese People's Political Consultative Conference, executive director of the Shanghai Advanced Financial Institute of Shanghai Jiaotong University, and chairman of the Shanghai New Financial Research Institute, pointed out in an interview with a reporter from China News Service that the epidemic has spread globally, has a high degree of malignancy, and lasts a long time, causing a comprehensive impact on society and the economy. After the epidemic, the international economic structure will also change. China is capable of responding to this crisis and should also play a more active role in the development of the world economy.
Recently, Tu Guangshao organized relevant research groups to analyze the impact of the epidemic on the global economy and the response policies of major economies. He pointed out that the epidemic has an impact on the economy through four transmission mechanisms. First of all, it is the transmission between industries, and the catering, tourism, entertainment, transportation and other industries facing the mass market bear the brunt, and quickly transfer from the tertiary industry to other industries. Subsequently, the mutual transmission of finance and the real economy, the tightening of credit in the financial market and the reduction of liquidity, interacted with the difficulties of the real economy and the tight cash flow, a vicious circle. At a more comprehensive level, it is the transmission between the micro-economy and the macro-economy. Difficulties in real enterprises have led to macro problems such as a decline in economic growth, a decrease in residents' income, and a shrinking job market. At the international level, it is reflected between countries, in terms of industrial chain distribution, import and export demand, etc., and interact with each other as the epidemic develops.
"The impact of the New Coronary Pneumonia Epidemic on the global economy is manifested by a decline in total demand, disruption of the industrial and supply chains, severe financial market turbulence and a sharp decline in asset prices, and overall deterioration of the macro economy." Tu Guangshao also pointed to the financial market as an example. After the occurrence, the liquidity of funds changed from loose to tight; credit relations changed from expansion to tightening, financial institutions tended to be cautious, "not easy to borrow money"; investment risk appetite moved from high risk to low risk, and even "cash King ”; other currencies are concentrated in the US dollar, and the US dollar index rises.
Tu Guangshao believes that what the global economy is facing now is not a question of how much growth, but whether it can be stabilized and how to avoid a greater crisis. The first task is to control the epidemic. The biggest challenge is how to deal with and deal with the relationship between the control of the epidemic and the stable economy: the epidemic cannot be controlled, and the economic situation is difficult to change; the economy is not recovering and it is unsustainable, but it is not conducive to simply restarting production Control of the epidemic. All countries in the world have adopted an extraordinary response, which is also crisis management. The final result depends not only on the ability of each country to respond, but also on the coordination and cooperation of countries, especially major economies.
He pointed out that for China, the first stage of the impact of the local epidemic outbreak on the economy overlaps with the second impact caused by the global spread of the epidemic. Under the background of economic globalization and global industrial chain allocation, China, which is closely connected to the world, is very It's hard to stay out of reach. Faced with many global risks and challenges, China has more favorable conditions and advantages to deal with, and should be confident of this. In recent years, China's economic restructuring and supply-side structural reforms have provided a good economic and industrial structural basis for responding to the epidemic. At present, China's domestic epidemic situation has been effectively controlled, the rate of resumption of enterprises' work has increased, and the epidemic situation control and economic recovery are expected to enter a virtuous circle. The Chinese government has a large policy space and there are many policy tools available. China has a huge market, the supply chain and industrial chain are relatively complete. The combination of enterprise development and industrial adjustment is believed to gradually overcome the negative impact of the epidemic and contribute to the recovery of the world economy.
On the specific operation level, Tu Guangshao pointed out that the most important thing at present is to grasp epidemic prevention with one hand and to resume production with the other, so that the two can promote each other. The government should introduce a more proactive fiscal policy to help small and medium-sized enterprises to solve practical difficulties and help residents in difficult lives; monetary policy should be aimed at maintaining the liquidity of funds, stabilizing the financial system, and increasing the support for the real economy in a targeted manner; In the next step of development and construction, urbanization construction should consider increasing investment in public health and other fields, complementing the shortcomings, which is beneficial to the long-term development of society and can also hedge the lack of external demand caused by the epidemic to a certain extent; appropriately issue consumer vouchers to promote Residents consume and help companies to bail out. Enterprises should strengthen mutual support with supply chain manufacturers, optimize industrial structure, and adapt to changes brought about by the epidemic.
Tu Guangshao said that the outbreak will have a profound impact on international economic relations. As far as the distribution of the industrial chain is concerned, the proportion of countries considering non-economic factors will increase, and the globalization of the supply chain will add new uncertainties. We should also pay attention to whether the economic policies introduced in response to the epidemic have "sequelae" that are not conducive to trade, investment and capital flow. The financial market and monetary system may change, and regionalization and bilateralization will become new ways for international economic cooperation. Adhering to the concept of a community with a shared future for mankind, China should assume more responsibilities and play more active roles. It must play the "three cards", that is, continue to promote globalization, strengthen regional cooperation, and improve bilateral relations, laying a good foundation for international cooperation. (Finish)