A mathematical study says that Spain has already passed the peak of hospitalizations and that April 9 will be the critical date for ICUs

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Two key dates: last March 31 and April 9 . The first is a great day, because it could have been the peak of coronavirus hospitalizations in Spain. The second, worries and is going to redouble material and professional efforts: that day of the next week the peak of patients in the Spanish ICU will occur.

At least this supports a report on a prediction based on mathematical models carried out by a research team at the University Institute for Multidisciplinary Mathematics at the Polytechnic University of Valencia.

"It took us so long to get this report out again because the model is very sensitive to parameters , and as a consequence, despite the results we show, the reality is that there is a lot of uncertainty about what is happening and will happen", They recognize team members who have made the report.

In fact, in his study there are many factors that they cannot control: unknown data such as the percentage of people who end up in the ICU and recover or the actual number of infected in Spain.

When will we go out?

One of the aspects that these mathematicians have studied and that worries the Spanish a lot is the ' D-day' of confinement : when can we leave the house. For that they have projected different models. A favorable scenario and a more pessimistic one.

For both, they have projected a staggered exit from the confinement of 25% of the people in quarantine every seven days since May 1, 2020, that is, on May 1, 8, 15 and 22 . In all cases assuming that precautions will continue to be taken to avoid contagion.

The difference is that in the most unfavorable scenario, either because people do not maintain their social distancing behavior or the good weather does not affect the spread of the disease. The favorable scenario, on the other hand, considers that the good weather and the maintenance of social distancing, which would begin on May 15, reduces the contagion capacity by a third.

According to the criteria of The Trust Project

• Coronavirus
• Infectious diseases
• Respiratory diseases

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