▲ A citizen who sees photos of past elections at the 'Beautiful Election Center' installed at Seoul Station
I am interested in whether the 'hidden opposition vote', which is not reflected in the polls, will affect the results of the election, as the ruling Democratic Party and the Democratic Party appear to be dominant in various polls conducted ahead of the April 15th general election.
In general, opposition supporters who were critical of the current government tended to feel pressured to reveal their political disposition in polls, and the hidden votes sometimes resulted in unexpected results on election day.
According to the recent polls registered to the Central Election Survey Deliberation Committee today (1st), the Democratic Party is ahead of the Consolidated Party in the overall judgment.
Political party support was 37% for Democrats, 22% for unified parties, and 27% for non-participants in Korea Gallup's 24-26 survey last month. The number of shamans was 8.4%.
However, there is an analysis that there may be more opposition votes, considering that the shamans are considerable and that the political sector usually sees 40% of all voters as conservative supporters.
Some opinion polls have inflated support for the Democratic Party as the ruling party's support is overly reflected.
Democrats and the United Party are also aware of the votes that do not appear in polls.
The Democratic Party took into account the hidden votes such as 'shy pay' while analyzing the regional judgments based on recent polls conducted by the city and provincial parties.
However, the impact is estimated to be negligible.
"It is a general pattern, but it doesn't seem to be large in size," said Lee Geun-hyeong, chairman of the Strategic Planning Committee of the Democratic Party in a radio interview last month.
The United Nations believes there are quite a few opposition supporters who have not responded because of distrust of the polls and expects them to vote.
However, excessive optimism is on the verge of the fact that in the recent elections such as the June 13 local elections in 2018, the Shay conservative has not been realized.
"I think it can be as small as 4% and as much as 8%," said Jin-Bok Lee, general manager of the General Election Countermeasures. "I said.
Experts also expect there will be hidden votes in this election.
The idea that support for the opposition, like in the days of authoritarian governments in the past, could be disadvantaged, is that older people who remain like habits, and opposition party supporters in areas with strong specific forces, such as Yeongnam and Honam, tend not to reveal their tendencies.
It is not an authoritarian government at the moment, but there is also an analysis that enthusiastic supporters may feel pressured similarly to the past when they see the phenomenon of selling and selling 'text bombs' to politicians and officials who do not like it.
"There were always hidden votes as well as this election," said senior expert committee member Cheol-Ho Bae. "There are shamans and concealed people who do not fully reveal their intentions or political inclinations in the polls."
"In the case of Honam, where the Democratic Party is predominant, the conservatives are rather reluctant to speak because of the sense of isolation felt as a minority and are reluctant to reveal their political tendencies than other regions in Chungcheong Province." "I explained.
Shinyul Myongji University professor of political and diplomacy said, "There have been few public opinion polls so far." The presidential election is conducted on a nationwide basis, but the regional survey has a small sample and the response rate is low. I pointed out.
Professor Shin said, "Most of the conservatives have been silenced after going through a massive incident of impeachment of President Park Geun-hye." These people are still there, but voting is possible. "I insisted.
Some elections had a decisive influence on the hidden vote, but others ended in hiding.
At the time of the June 2 local elections in 2010, the perspective of predicting the victory of the ruling Grand National Party was dominant, but the result was a crushing defeat in Gyeonggi-do and only the Yeongnam area, the 'field'.
The general analysis was that hidden votes from opposition supporters, who were not caught in the polls due to the Cheonan incident before the election, appeared at the polls.
In the 2018 June 13 local elections, the then-sponsored Democratic Party leader Hong Joon-pyo emphasized that the ‘Soy Conservative’ was gathered, and the Democratic Party also believed that the ‘Soy Conservative’ would be around 10%.
However, when the cover was opened, the conservative support did not appear as expected by the Korean party, and the Democratic Party took 14 of the 17 regional leaders, including Busan, Ulsan, and Gyeongnam.
(Photo = Yonhap News)