Reporter Gong Mengze

Recently, the impact of the new crown pneumonia epidemic on the automotive industry has gradually emerged. Moody's, an internationally renowned rating agency, has once again sharply lowered its forecast for the global automotive market in 2020.

"Securities Daily" reporter noted that according to Moody's new forecast, global car sales will decline by 14% in 2020, an increase of 11.5 percentage points from the previous forecast of 2.5% decline. At the same time, it is expected that the overall sales of the Chinese auto market will decline by 10% in 2020, an increase of 7.1 percentage points from the previous forecast of a decline of 2.9%.

On March 31, Premier Li Keqiang hosted an executive meeting of the State Council. The meeting confirmed that the new energy vehicle purchase subsidy and purchase tax exemption policy were extended for two years. The industry generally believes that this move will greatly promote the consumption of new energy vehicles and bring substantial benefits to the new energy vehicle industry.

Epidemic could cause global car sales

Sharply reduced ten million vehicles

According to relevant statistics, global car sales (including passenger cars and commercial vehicles) in 2019 were 90.32 million. According to Moody's, on the whole, global car sales this year may fall by 14%, a sharp drop of 12 million units, and fall below the 80 million mark. This number even exceeded the annual sales performance of Volkswagen Group, the world's largest car manufacturer.

At the same time, as the world's largest automotive single market, data show that in 2019, the sales volume of the Chinese automotive market (including passenger cars and commercial vehicles) reached 25.769 million. According to Moody's latest forecast, a 10% drop means that China's auto market sales will be reduced by about 2.58 million in 2020.

The reporter reviewed the production and sales data of domestic independent brand car companies and found that in 2019, Great Wall Motor's annual sales volume was 1.06 million vehicles, Geely Automobile's annual sales volume was 1.36 million vehicles, and the total sales volume of the two vehicle companies was about 2.42 million vehicles. In other words, according to Moody's forecast, the overall sales performance of the Chinese auto market in 2020 is equivalent to subtracting the sales of two leading independent brand car companies, Great Wall Motor and Geely.

In fact, in addition to Moody's, well-known market research institute IHS Markit also believes that the global automotive market in 2020 is not optimistic. According to IHS Markit's forecast, global car shipments will decline by more than 12% year-on-year in 2020, while the year-on-year decline in China's auto market will reach 10%.

From this point of view, the forecast data of the two agencies are showing a view that 2020 may become the most difficult year for the global and Chinese automotive markets. This statement is also confirmed by Geely Automobile.

On March 30, Geely Automobile released the 2019 performance report. An Conghui, president of Geely Holding Group, said that the new crown pneumonia epidemic has severely affected the company's supply chain and production level, and will put additional pressure on turnover and profitability in 2020. It said that 2020 could be the toughest year in history.

Subsidy extension

Promote the smooth operation of the domestic auto market

Against this background, on March 31, the executive meeting of the State Council determined that the new energy vehicle purchase subsidies and purchase tax exemption policy were extended for two years. The industry generally believes that this will further promote the consumption of new energy vehicles. The vehicle purchase tax accounts for 10% of the vehicle cost. This part of the tax incentives will further enhance the price advantage of new energy vehicles and also strive for greater growth space for the new energy vehicle industry that has not yet achieved profitability.

Cui Dongshu, secretary general of the Passenger Car Market Information Joint Committee, said, "New energy vehicles produced 50,000 units in January-February this year, a year-on-year decrease of 63%. Among them, the total number of new-energy vehicle passenger cars fell by 58%, and China's new-energy vehicle market is serious The downturn. And the European new energy vehicle market has a strong performance, which increased 122% year-on-year in January. Therefore, domestic subsidies are needed to increase support. "

"In addition to the extension of the subsidy policy, it is recommended to encourage the policy to extend from the manufacturing end to the subsidy for buyers, and have more policy support in the use of links, such as preferential access to new energy vehicles on the highway, and more ways for new energy vehicles in first-tier cities. Multiple support will better promote new energy vehicles, "said Lang Xuehong, deputy secretary general of the China Automobile Dealers Association.

In this regard, Cui Dongshu also emphasized that the continued subsidy will drive the growth of new energy vehicle market sales, but the domestic must also keep up with the international pace. "Especially in Europe, new energy vehicles have been developing at a high speed, and the transformation is fast. Domestic car companies should strengthen the path of new energy transformation and strive to promote the transformation of traditional vehicles to new energy."