After a difficult labor that lasted for about four months, Tunisia was finally able to announce the formation of the new government headed by Elias El-Fakhfakh, and obtain the confidence of the Parliament. And that government comes after a long period of absence, as it is the second to be presented to parliament for confidence, preceded by the government of Habib al-Jamali, the candidate of the Ennahda Movement, which was unable to gain the confidence of Parliament on January 10, which returned the entire process to square zero. . According to the constitution, Tunisian President Qais Said has the right to assign the figure he deems most capable of forming the government, away from the majority party. Al-Fakhfakh is the eighth prime minister of Tunisia after 2011, after Youssef Chahed, who has held the post since August 2016. This analysis seeks to review the challenges facing the formation of the new government.

Government formation contexts

Getting to the formula for forming the current government was not in any way simple, as it came in a complex context that can be referred to as follows:

Al-Gamali government failure

The choice of traps came at a defining moment in the history of the Tunisian state, as the government of Habib al-Jamali, who was nominated by the Renaissance Movement as the majority party, failed to gain the confidence of Parliament, due to the state of polarization, and the attempts of control through which the movement sought to impose its elements on formation The government, which ended in failure to reconcile with the parties, and toppled the government of al-Gamli, and then transferred - according to the constitution - the authority to choose the person in charge of forming the government in consultation with the parties to President Qais Saeed.

These consultations ended with the Tunisian president announcing, on January 20, the assignment of traps to the task of forming the government, which sparked a state of controversy between the parties, at a time when he saw a number of parties - led by the "Democratic Bloc" and "Long Live Tunisia", Who suggested his name - he is considered a person with administrative and economic experience, and has a well-known history, but others saw that he belonged to a party that is not represented by any seat in Parliament, which is the Democratic Bloc for Labor and Liberties, and that some of the other figures suggested by the parties would have had support A wider enables her to gain the confidence of Parliament more easily.

The foundations of forming a government

Whereas the traps announced, as soon as he was tasked with forming a government, that his government would open the door to the widest possible political belt, away from any party exclusion or quotas, while fulfilling the majority orientation expressed by the Tunisians in the elections to the Parliament, the consultations that took place after that included excluding a fundamental party And he is the “Heart of Tunisia”, which is the second largest party in Parliament, which was later exploited by “Ennahda” to hint at not giving confidence to the government of the traps, because of its lack of commitment to respect the representation of the majority parties in parliament, and it also created a climate for raising interpretations about the reasons for that exclusion. , And linked him to the desire to choose his political alliance Among the parties that voted for President Qais Saeed, and even attempted to pit the grassroots supporting these parties, given that excluding them from the government formation is an omission of their electoral votes.

Overcoming the constitutional deadlock

It can be said that the consensus that occurred was driven by the desire of all parties to avoid the constitutional impasse, as it was decided that in the event of the trap government failing to gain the confidence of Parliament, the Tunisian president would dissolve the parliament, and call for early parliamentary elections, which President Saeed threatened Actually, this prompted the intervention of Tunisian union leaders and the business sector, where they organized a group of shuttle diplomatic meetings, in an attempt to urge the competing parties to reach a compromise in a way that supports the stability of the Tunisian state and saves them the cost of entering new elections.

Attempts to block formation

Where the Renaissance movement has sought, through several measures, to weave threads of intertwine to target the issue of forming the new government. Days before the government of the traps set itself up in Parliament to obtain its confidence, the Ennahda movement offered the possibility of withdrawing confidence from the caretaker head of government Yusef al-Shahid, taking advantage of that attempt to interpret the constitutional text in Chapter 89, which is related to forming a government in the absence of a constitutional court that is It is the reference, but some considered this attempt as a political maneuver to withdraw confidence from the witness, and to choose an alternative for him from the movement, in an attempt to stop President Said's move to dissolve the council, if all the doors are closed to traps, but the reaction of Tunisian President Qais Saeed It came critical. He stressed that "maneuvers under the cloak of the constitution cannot pass," and that he will stand in the way of the conspiracies led by some political parties. Whereas, the proposed move by "Al-Nahda" is unconstitutional, as a result of the witness's government being a caretaker government, and therefore it does not derive its legitimacy from the current parliament, as it expresses a state of parallel actions in light of the final consultations of the Pvt.

This coincided with the previous announcement by the Ennahda movement to withdraw from the formation of the government of traps, which clearly meant that the formation of the ministerial team faltered, as this withdrawal came as a reaction from the movement to not annexing the “heart of Tunisia” to the government, and the differences over some ministerial positions, except The movement soon retracted this threat.

Renaissance Party exercises

After the Ennahda movement threatened not to vote for the new government in the event that the "Heart of Tunisia" party did not participate in it, and in light of its failed attempt to obstruct the formation of the government and put forward another constitutional alternative, the movement finally gave in to the dictates of reality, and accepted the government of the traps as it is free from the liberal party, and then The entry of "Ennahda" to the government of the traps without obtaining its conditions represented in the participation of the "Heart of Tunisia" party, and obtaining the sovereign ministries, is like closing the way for the hypothesis of dissolving Parliament, and what this means is to preserve the position of its president, Ghannouchi, at the head of parliament. , While still searching for other ways to impose her will.

Traps government challenges

The new puppet government faces a number of challenges, which can be noted below:

Fragility of party-back

Where many see that this government has sharp contradictions, to form it from members belonging to left, liberal and Islamic parties, in addition to independents, and therefore they possess different ideologies and visions, and the degree of trust between them is minimal, especially between the "democratic trend" and the "people" movement and " Long live Tunisia ”on the one hand, and“ Ennahda ”on the other hand, which the People's Movement expressly stated by declaring that“ meeting with the Ennahda Movement in one government does not mean the political alliance, and meeting on one intellectual ground, which will make the work of the new government an issue Hard and very complicated ».

The inspector finds the formation of the new government that it brought parties from different political spectrums, in which the sovereign portfolios were granted to independent personalities, while the rest of the ministries were distributed between technocrats and parties, so the government-forming ribs do not augur with government harmony and sustainable consensus.

The affiliation of the traps to the Democratic Bloc Party, which does not have any seat in Parliament, and later announcing its resignation from all party responsibilities in the party, leaves the new Prime Minister in a state of absence of the necessary partisan support within Parliament, which is expected to have implications for The path of the new government.

Anti-party alliances

Although Ennahdha agreed to join the government of the traps, it was temporary, and came in response to the current moment that necessitated bypassing the matter in order to avoid dissolving the council and holding early elections. However, "Al-Nahda" is expected to pressure the new government, taking advantage of its control over a good number of seats in Parliament. If we add to this that the “Heart of Tunisia” party, which is the second largest party in the parliament, has been absent from the current formation of the government, this will lead it to lead the opposition forces and search for a new map of alliances, which may include both: The Free Constitutional Party (17 Seats) and the reform bloc (15 seats), the effects of which will be largely reflected in the ability of the new government to pass its plans.

The socio-economic challenge

Al-Fakhfakh announced that the new government is taking top priority in tackling crime, terrorism, combating high prices, poverty, corruption, and reviving the economy. He expressed this by proposing seven main economic and social priorities to top his government's action plan, as these priorities aim mainly to address the shortcomings in the economic sectors, in light of the greatest challenges that the economy faces after years of low growth rates and high unemployment rates. Government deficits, mounting debt, high inflation and deteriorating public services. And the government will deal with the file of economic monopoly. As for the second priority, it includes providing urgent support to the institutions that constitute the pillar of the Tunisian economy.

Urgent rescue government

As the Tunisian economy needs an urgent rescue government in light of the slow movement of the Tunisian economy. While the international rating agency (Moody's) improved Tunisia's sovereign rating from “negative” to “stable”, while maintaining it at the “B2” level, it made it clear that despite the success of policies in the area of ​​budget support and price stability, external fragility is still important And, as a result of the accumulation of debt, and the growth rates are still not sufficient to improve the economic and social conditions, in addition to the social and environmental risks faced by Tunisia.

Securing financial resources

The new government will also need to secure a new foreign financing of $ 3 billion after the end of the IMF loan program that started in 2016, with no new support agreed upon after April 2020. This makes the new government a difficult path to enter the path of negotiations again, The resumption of dialogue with international donors, the first of which was the International Monetary Fund itself, in order to obtain financial support.

High expectations ceiling The length of the transitional period that took the process of forming the new government has led to the accumulation of expectations of the Tunisian street, whether from the president or the new government, that each of them contribute to addressing many of the social and economic problems facing the country, which should be concerned He has political powers, as betting on popular patience may not be appropriate.

Depth of the crisis

It can be said that the stumbling block for the formation of Tunisian governments in the aftermath of the October 2019 elections is only a reflection of the depth of the political crisis facing Tunisia in light of the results of the elections from a council that includes a group of divided parties, and the absence of a party or a specific political trend that has the majority that enables it From the helm.

- The traps belonging to the Democratic Bloc Party, which does not have any seat in Parliament, and then later announcing its resignation from all party responsibilities in the party, leaving the new Prime Minister in the absence of the necessary partisan support within Parliament, which is expected to reflect its effects on the path The new government.

- The length of the transitional period that took the process of forming the new government led to the accumulation of the expectations of the Tunisian street, whether from the president or the new government, that each of them contribute to addressing many of the social and economic problems facing the country, which the political forces should pay attention to, as Betting on popular patience may not be appropriate.