ANALYSIS
Let's go ! The official campaign for the municipal elections begins on Monday. All the lists have been deposited in the prefecture, and all the parties which will present candidates hope to obtain a maximum of elected municipal officials on Sunday March 15 and 22. And if some have big ambitions, others know that the results will be lower compared to the last election in 2014, where La France Insoumise and La République en marche were not present.
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LREM: "We start from scratch, so difficult to do less"
The presidential party knows that the March 15 poll will be very complicated. In Paris or Strasbourg, which are part of the metropolises targeted by La République en Marche, polls indicate that the battle is far from won. In some cities, ego quarrels cause dissent, as in Lyon. And even if LREM will use the "cuckoo strategy" - appear on lists of "Macron-compatible" candidates or outgoing mayors well established, on the right or on the left - to target the bar of 10,000 municipal councilors, the walkers do not are not the most optimistic.
With the triggering of 49-3 Saturday by Edouard Philippe, LREM could also undergo a sanction vote, if the ballot were nationalized with the predominance of pension reform in the debates. As one member sums it up, "there will be no 'Wow' effect, we don't expect to win cities". The Republic on the march will still be able to congratulate itself on its score on Sunday, March 15 and 22: "We start from scratch, difficult therefore to do less," slips a minister.
An exit bonus which should benefit the PS and LR
Wiped out in the last presidential, legislative and European elections, The Republicans and the Socialist Party should still succeed in obtaining a good score. Because the bonus for the outgoing mayor may run at full speed, the mayor being the preferred elected of the French. Mechanically, LR will ride the blue wave of 2014. But beware of overconfidence. In Marseille, for example, Martine Vassal, the party candidate, must undergo the dissident candidacy of Bruno Gilles. As for the Socialist Party, Martine Aubry in Lille, Johanna Rolland in Nantes and François Rebsamen in Dijon hope to benefit from their local presence.
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Hope for conquest on the side of environmentalists
EELV has not announced a quantified target, but with polls looking good, the Greens dream of conquering Strasbourg, Bordeaux, Lyon, Besançon or Rouen, in the pursuit of their surprise result in the European elections last May. But even if the victories may not all be there, the Greens consider that they have won the battle of ideas. On our antenna on Sunday, Yannick Jadot explained that EELV "had already won: everyone is called 'ecologist'".
France rebellious: a rebound after the Europeans?
The movement of Jean-Luc Mélenchon, on the front line against 49-3, decided not to present lists in the name of La France insoumise, but "citizen lists", supported by the party. Also, in many municipalities, LFI has managed to forge alliances with the rest of the left, as in Bagnolet with the PCF, Grenoble with EELV or Marseille with the PS, the PCF and Public Place, under the banner of "Printemps Marseille ". If La France Insoumise had achieved a breakthrough in the presidential election by sometimes obtaining more than 20% in large cities, it collapsed in the Europeans, collecting only 6% of the votes. The stakes of the municipal ballot are different, but will allow to gauge the local establishment of the party, four years after its creation.
A real test for the National Gathering
On the side of Marine Le Pen's party, internal financing problems prevented the RN from presenting lists everywhere. In some cities, the far-right party even preferred to step aside, as in Paris in favor of Serge Federbusch, a liberal enarch. But the RN, which had won eleven cities in 2014, also wants to take advantage of its latest results (23% in Europeans in 2019) to win other cities like Perpignan, where Louis Aliot will be a candidate.