The Russian-Turkish alliance began to fend in Syria

Is it possible for the Russian-Turkish alliance to remain healthy in Syria? It is the main question posed after the clashes that took place this month between the Syrian and Turkish armies in Idlib. At the same time, the United States hopes to take advantage of this situation, as Washington expresses its unconditional support for Turkey and considers it another opportunity to denounce Russian operations in Syria.

What happened?

Damascus strengthened its offensive in Idlib last December. When the last ceasefire between Moscow and Ankara collapsed about a month after it was signed, Turkey began deploying its military equipment in the area to support the Syrian opposition militias and reinforce their observation posts, some of which were located on lands controlled by Damascus.

During the past ten days, the Turkish army and civilian advisers have been subjected to artillery bombardments by the Syrian army at least twice, and there have been casualties. In response to this incident, Turkey attacked the Syrian positions, which resulted in injuries to the forces of the Syrian forces, which were 10 times more than that of the Turkish army.

Who is to blame?

Ankara has always blamed Damascus explicitly for the escalation, although at the beginning of February, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan blamed Russia for the first time, because it left the Syrian president to do what he wanted.

Erdogan also charged Iran, and threatened that it could undermine what are known as the "Astana understandings" that included the three countries. Until recently, Ankara was reiterating its desire to maintain the tripartite relationship.

At first, Turkey was playing with time, hoping to reach an understanding with Moscow. Ankara hosted two rounds of talks between the foreign ministers of the two countries and their security forces, but they did not reach anything, and even the phone conversation between Erdogan and Putin did not lead to a settlement.

After that, Ankara issued a warning demanding that the Syrian forces return to their positions before the last attacks, by the end of February. Erdogan added that if the Turkish forces or any other person was injured as a result of the actions taken by the Damascus government, the Turkish forces would "strike the Syrian army forces anywhere, regardless of what was signed in the Sochi Agreement."

What is Russia's position?

Moscow has shown no desire to compromise. At first, it tried to soften the situation by saying that the Turkish military had not reported to its Russian counterpart in time any troop movements. But Russia later blamed terrorist groups.

According to a statement issued by the Russian Foreign Minister, Sergey Lavrov, on February 6, "The Russian and Turkish armies made a last attempt in mid-January to bring the ceasefire into the de-escalation zone in Idlib into effect." But the terrorists not only cared to reduce their military operations, they also increased the frequency of their attacks. ”

Moscow intended to show that Russia and Turkey are suffering, alike, as a result of the escalation, because terrorist operations not only killed about 100 Syrian soldiers and many civilians outside the de-escalation zone, but also many Russian and Turkish military experts, and Moscow maintained this. The position during the past week. In addition, the media run by the Russian government indicated that the escalation between the Syrian and Turkish armies was the result of provocation.

What's Next?

The collapse of the "Astana understandings" would jeopardize the conflict settlement system in Syria, which Russia has spent a long time building. Cooperation between the three related countries, Iran, Turkey and Syria, has led to compromises "on the ground", in addition to some progress on the political and humanitarian fronts. No mediation group in Syria was able to accomplish anything similar. Indeed, before the "Astana understandings" were formed, Russia partnered with the United States to solve issues "on the ground", but it became clear that Washington had no influence over the Syrian opposition forces, as is the case with Turkey.

The western world believes that the "Astana understandings" did not produce much except for strengthening the power of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad, who has recovered about 70% of Syrian territory during the past three years.

Putin finds out the pain of his friendship with Erdogan

Yes, this phrase is generally correct, but it is also true that it was with the consent of Turkey, which many believe had to support the Syrian opposition, but Turkey's primary interest was to form a buffer zone on the border between it and Syria to prevent Kurdish militias from entering Turkish territory, and to secure an area outside the control of The Syrian government, can be returned to the Syrian refugees in Turkey.

Although Ankara has carried out many military operations against the Syrian Kurds, to gain a limited foothold in the region, it remains small and insufficient for the return of the Syrian refugees. One of the solutions is to add part of Idlib to this area. Indeed, prior to the recent military actions, it seemed as though Turkey and Russia had reached an agreement regarding the new borders of Idlib. But Ankara's ultimatum on the withdrawal of Syrian forces by the end of February cast doubt on such an agreement.

And against the backdrop of the ultimatum, Washington announced its clear support for Turkey. During a visit to Ankara, the Special Representative to Syria, James Jeffrey, described Syrian and Russian forces as a threat to Turkish soldiers. Washington has been trying for a long time to break the Turkish-Russian alliance in Syria, and now such an opportunity has become quite favorable to it. The question now is whether Moscow is able once again to turn the situation in Syria to its advantage.

Mariana Belinkaya: expert on Arab affairs and journalist at the Comermant Publishing House »

- Moscow wanted to show that both Russia and Turkey are suffering from the escalation, because terrorist operations not only killed about 100 Syrian soldiers and many civilians outside the de-escalation zone, but also many Russian and Turkish military experts.

The collapse of the "Astana understandings" would jeopardize the conflict settlement system in Syria, which Russia has spent a long time building. Cooperation between the three related countries, Iran, Turkey and Syria, has led to compromises "on the ground."