The latest triumph of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad came earlier this week when regime loyal forces took control of the entire M5 motorway, connecting the country's two largest cities Damascus and Aleppo. It is the first time since 2012 that the government controls the entire route.

The government side has also taken on several medium-sized cities, including Maarrat al-Numan and Saraqib. Russia's military efforts have played a crucial role in its success, as in the past during the civil war.

People are crowded with all kinds of belongings on the truck surface during the flight away from the fighting. This photo was taken last Saturday in the town of Jindayris near the border with Turkey. Photo: Rami al Sayed / TT-AFP

Since the fighting escalated in December, some 800,000 people have moved in the direction of Turkey, according to UN regional spokesman David Swanson. However, the border is closed and the risk of a humanitarian disaster is described as imminent.

Losses for Turkey

Turkey, which supports the rebel side, has strengthened its military presence in Idlib province. For the first time, Turkish and Syrian government forces have met in direct fighting. However, both Turkey and Russia want to avoid a direct confrontation. A Turkish delegation will travel to Moscow on Monday to discuss the situation in the area, reports the news agency AP.

Nearly four million people live in the rebel-controlled area, many of them refugees from other parts of Syria. Rebels who have seen the battle lost elsewhere have been given free rein and driven by green buses to Idlib Province along with families and sympathizers. The area is now dominated by the jihadist rebel group HTS, affiliated with the terrorist group al-Qaeda.

Thinking smith: More difficult to take the rest

The American think tank Institute for the Study of War (ISW) writes in an analysis that Russia is controlling the course and that it is possible that the country now chooses to stop and return to diplomatic means now that the M5 motorway is secured.

A man drives through the abandoned town of Kafranbel, just a few kilometers from the front in the southern part of Idlib province. Photo: Omar Haj Kadour / TT-AFP

A continued offensive west is not likely to proceed as quickly, according to ISW. The terrain is more mountainous and easier to defend, and the rebel forces have built tunnels and other defense facilities in preparation for an attack. Nor does the prospect of a fight in development in the provincial capital Idlib attract.

A map on ISW's website shows how the front was moved from May 6, 2019 to February 7 this year. Since then, even the northernmost part of the M5 has come under government control.