Zaher Albik-Ankara

At a time when the map of the conflict is expanding and becoming more complicated in northern Syria, field movements warn of the possibility of a military confrontation in which Turkish forces and Syrian opposition factions clash with the Syrian regime forces backed by Russia, especially after Turkey lost five of its soldiers a week after the killing of eight others in the Syrian bombing On Idlib.

For nine months, Idlib governorate has witnessed a sporadic military escalation of the forces of the regime and its ally Russia, which is represented in field attacks and fierce shelling centered mainly on the international road that links Aleppo to the capital, Damascus.

In light of Ankara's lack of confidence in Washington, the risk of a military clash with Russia, which in turn will lead to the collapse of relations between Ankara and Moscow, is Turkey's biggest concern politically, militarily and economically, which reduces the Turkish options and makes them more complicated.

Turkish military action
Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan warned on Wednesday that the Turkish army would strike the forces of the Syrian regime in the event of repeated attacks on Turkish soldiers, even if that was outside the areas covered by the Sochi Agreement, adding that the aircraft bombing civilians in Idlib will not be able to move freely as it was in the previous.

Observers believe that the Syrian regime seems unable to take any decision on launching military operations, and that all the decision lies in the hands of the Russians who are strong in Syria, which in turn leads to the conclusion that the confrontation is between Russia and Turkey and not between Turkey and the Syrian regime.

6131952758001 d7f5a8fa-89ba-4f8a-a4db-cd386848d278 39a3051f-ae2b-4260-b65b-012b03c359fb
video

And days ago, the Turkish army sends consecutive frames of its forces to Idlib, and statistics indicate that these forces in terms of number and number are considered the largest that the Turkish army has entered into Syria since the beginning of the Syrian crisis, and is larger than the one that the army used in its previous operations in Syria, including " Euphrates Shield, "Olive Branch", and "Peace Spring", west and east of the Euphrates River.

In the absence of official statistics on the number of these forces, the official Anatolia Agency published a separate news series about sending hundreds of military vehicles, while the Syrian Observatory for Human Rights counted the entry of 850 Turkish military vehicles to Idlib since the second of this month.

Turkish reports suggested that the Turkish army, after the recent military reinforcements, completed its preparations to form what it described as an advanced military fence wall whose borders have not been clear yet, indicating that Ankara has taken a final decision to prevent the regime from crossing certain borders in Idlib and even the Turkish border, in a decisive measure to prevent a new wave of asylum. To Turkish territory, including political, security and economic consequences for Turkey internally and externally.

The clash with Russia
In conjunction with the visit of the Russian delegation to Ankara, the Turkish Ministry of Defense confirmed that the Turkish observation points continue their tasks and that they are able to defend themselves, while the ministry confirmed that Ankara is not planning at all to withdraw the Turkish points, in a message on Ankara's rejection of any Russian proposal to amend the limits of understandings Sochi and withdraw the Turkish control points that are behind the lines of order.

In this context, Yassin Kovanch, a professor of international relations at the University of Argis in Kayseri, considered the current military escalation between the Syrian army and Turkish forces in Idlib governorate, the worst crisis facing Turkish-Russian relations since the Turkish projection of a Russian fighter on the Syrian-Turkish border in 2015.

Covanche told Al-Jazeera Net that despite the complicated differences and the great divergence in the positions of the two countries, the Turkish desire to avoid any real clash with Russia, and Moscow's desire not to lose Turkey is pushing for the search for exceptional solutions that may appear in the form of an amendment to the Sochi understandings and come up with a new formula It meets part of the demands of the two countries until it returns again to deserve the fate of what remains of Idlib.

6131645936001 870727a0-c71b-4d1c-a4b8-773867c75299 a5f6b1cd-baee-4bef-bc7d-6520e3049212
video

One of the scenarios now presented is the possibility of a direct escalation between Russia and Turkey, which is excluded by the professor of international relations Kovanch, as he says, "I do not think that the direct confrontation between the Russian and Turkish forces is on the table now, we may witness some kind of minor conflicts as we saw in 2015 when we brought down The Turks are a Russian plane and then we see who will retreat first.

He believes that the common assumption that the Turks are now in a weaker position inside Syria is incorrect.

The American role
In its response to the Syrian artillery shelling of Turkish sites in northwestern Syria, Washington announced its support for Ankara, its NATO ally, and offered to help it, while threatening to impose sanctions on Damascus, in an attempt to push the Syrian regime and its ally Russia to end the escalation.

James Jeffrey, the US envoy to Syria, had previously declared that he was "very, very concerned about the very serious conflict" in Idlib Governorate, northwestern Syria.

For his part, US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo described the Syrian bombing of Turkish sites in Idlib Governorate as a "dangerous escalation", and said that US officials fully support what he called "justified self-defense actions" carried out by Turkey in response to the bombing.

And the Turkish journalist Sinan Soylmaz said that the US position this time is serious, not only in supporting Turkey, but also wants to stop what he called the "American agency" given to Putin.

6131648649001 a490b0ef-6328-4a81-9570-145366229e48 a962042c-5a77-42ed-8f63-acd98c934cc2
video

Soilmaz said to Al-Jazeera Net that this direct American intervention in supporting Turkey after the escalation in Idlib Governorate shows that Russia is no longer the only player in this conflict, indicating that America wants to return to Syria as a partner in any future settlements, as Russian President Vladimir Putin did not provide His military adventures in Syria that began in September 2015, only after he was given a green light by US President Barack Obama, and after understandings between him and other supportive parties in this file.

But given previous experiences of the Americans' seemingly largely unconcerned position with the Syrian file, as well as President Donald Trump's repeated statements about his desire to withdraw completely from Syria, Swielmaz believes that it must wait until it becomes clear whether this American pursuit is serious or is it only a temporary talk.

The Turkish press writer emphasized that in the event of a wider military confrontation in Idlib, Turkey would urgently need to support advanced defense systems as quickly as possible, as it was mainly dependent on the American Patriot systems that are temporarily installed by NATO, but most of these systems were withdrawn In light of the growing differences with these countries and Ankara's purchase of the S-400 defense system from Russia, which is the system that has not entered service yet.