The rift between America and Europe will increase in 2020

The American strike of the Iranian military commander, Qassem Soleimani, caused another dispute with the European allies, at a time when relations between the two sides of the Atlantic are in tension, and the two sides do not agree on several issues, including the Iranian file and trade with China, through climate change, and therefore the West is divided. .

Trump is responsible

Many in Europe blame President Donald Trump for this situation.

Indeed, the White House administration has some responsibility, but transatlantic tensions are much deeper than the repercussions of the 45th US president's policy. Without corrective action, the United States and Europe will increase further in 2020, regardless of who will be in the White House.

American tensions with Europe are not new. The Iraq war divided the Atlantic Partners, but previous repercussions had an effect on politics. Today the concept and value of the Transatlantic Alliance are questioned. Trump is the first modern American president to undermine European integration rather than encourage him, and to view the European Union as a threat rather than an ally, adding to the uncertainty in NATO.

Many Europeans believe their differences with Washington will disappear as soon as Trump leaves office. It is true that a new president can certainly ease tensions, and possibly return the United States to a commitment to NATO, share Europe’s concerns about climate change or Russia, and when dealing with differences, the new president will deal with these issues privately, rather than tweeting on Twitter “Yet after an initial honeymoon period, Europeans will likely be disappointed, because they will discover that many of their differences with Washington still exist, and reflect a long-term divergence between American and European interests.

There are five problems in particular that run the risk of spreading the divide between America and the European Union in 2020, regardless of who is sitting in the White House.

First: tensions over defense spending, as it is likely that Europeans, who benefit from American protection, will continue to spend less than Washington wants, knowing that the US frustrations of the decline in European defense spending did not start with the Trump administration, and will continue after that as well. Indeed, tensions may increase if a future president decides to cut US defense spending and demand that Europeans bridge the gap. Likewise, trade tensions will not necessarily decrease under a new administration.

Second, tensions with China, while Republicans and Democrats ’attitudes toward Beijing have been tightened, Europeans, aware of their growing economic interests, will remain reluctant to choose between their security relations with the United States and the development of trade and investment relations with China, which exacerbates the dispute with Washington.

Third: American interest in Europe will continue to decline, which is the result of the Cold War's domination of US foreign policy. As others have argued, the new Cold War is with China, and the focus of American foreign policy for any future administration will be the Pacific, not the Atlantic.

Fourth, with the rise of other powers, the ability of the United States to monitor the world will diminish, and will be constrained by a weary American audience. And as the French President, Emmanuel Macron, has begun, the Europeans will communicate with other opponents, including Russia and China.

Finally, whether it comes to Iran or climate change, the Europeans have grown accustomed to disagreeing with Washington over the past years, and in a way that was not imagined under previous administrations, and this trend will not change. Even if the next president chooses to commit again to the European Union, the Europeans They know, now, that any future President of the United States can once again return to Trump's approach; and they will hedge accordingly.

new decade

The strong transatlantic relationship is in the interests of both the United States and Europe. As we enter a new decade, the current decade is likely to be determined by the vanishing of the rules-based international system, the emergence of a new era of rivalry between the superpowers, and a united West is necessary in the face of rising China and Russia seeking to restore the glories of the past, and the good news is that the downward path can To avoid it, however, the European Union and the United States will need to change it to renew their pledges.

What can each do? Economically, the European Union and the United States can conclude a new trade deal, which would help America withdraw Europe from China, and better enable it to set global standards and new international "rules". Politically, the United States and the European Union can commit to a common strategy toward Iran, Russia, China, Syria, and other challenges, and militarily each of them can renew commitment to NATO and reshape a political forum, not just a military force.

David Winery is a fellow at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace in Washington and visiting professor at New York University.

Unrealistic steps

Unfortunately, some of these steps seem unrealistic, for now, and until things change, Europeans must stop deceiving themselves that transatlantic tensions will magically disappear after Trump's term. In the absence of action, the gap between the two shores of the Atlantic Ocean may increase over the next decade, whatever the outcome of the presidential elections, in November.

As we enter a new decade, the current decade is likely to be determined by the vanishing of the rules-based international system, the emergence of a new era of rivalry between the superpowers, and a united West is necessary in the face of rising China and Russia seeking to recover the glories of the past.

Trump is the first modern American president to undermine European integration rather than encourage him ... and view the European Union as a threat rather than an ally, adding to the uncertainty in NATO.

American tensions with Europe are not new, as the Iraq war divided the "Atlantic" partners, but previous repercussions had an effect on politics.