The goal of Iran's anger overnight turned from the United States to lead the country. A week ago, millions expressed their grief over the killing of the Revolutionary Guards commander in Qassem Soleimani, and it seemed as if his death in a US drone strike had united the Iranians behind the command. But at the end of last week, angry crowds exited and expressed their indignation at the government, after admitting that one of its missiles accidentally shot down a Ukrainian civilian plane, killing 176 people, including 82 Iranians, and considered it a cover-up, and the Iranian regime was caught between pressure Growing from US sanctions and popular discontent.
The slogans of the protesters over the plane disaster were unusually provocative. They targeted not only the Supreme Leader, Ali Khamenei, but also the Revolutionary Guards, who are not usually targets, and the rallies also included groups such as college students, who were deeply concerned by the leadership.
This intense emotion is understandable. Last November, protests took an anti-regime tone, and anger over living hardship due to US sanctions mingled with discontent with official corruption thought to have increased its impact. The authorities managed to suppress these protests by blackouting on the Internet and the brutal crackdown that has claimed more than 300 lives, according to Amnesty International. And the deaths of more than 50 people in a stampede that occurred a few days ago at Soleimani's funeral - caused outrage even as the Iranians were expressing grief over Soleimani's death. Now, the Iranian people have revolted after the Revolutionary Guards attempted to mislead the people by denying the shooting down of the Ukrainian plane.
Ironically, this latest incident may weaken moderates such as President Hassan Rouhani, the main champion of the 2015 Iranian nuclear deal. Rouhani, who also chairs Iran's Supreme National Security Council, was humiliated because the Revolutionary Guards did not inform him of the fact that the plane was shot down, despite being He oversees security affairs, and ordinary Iranians, even moderate forces within the system, may consider him as a sign of his lack of connection to crucial security issues.
While the downing of the plane was a quick setback for the Iranian Revolutionary Guards in the wake of Soleimani’s death, it could also be a political blow to militants within the regime. Moreover, the White House should not assume that its policy of "maximum pressure" aimed at forcing Tehran to renegotiate the nuclear deal has brought the system to the brink of collapse, as most Iranians still see no alternative to the current leadership.
Stress cannot be tolerated
However, Tehran cannot tolerate these multiple pressures indefinitely. Soleimani’s murder may have, in the foreseeable future, squandered any possibility of new talks with the United States. However, some advise Iran to return to its obligations under the 2015 nuclear deal. On Tuesday, the United Kingdom, France and Germany launched the deal's dispute mechanism, and these countries have struggled to salvage the deal. Tehran should also refrain from launching further attacks on US interests by its proxies in the Middle East, which the militants are hinting may be imminent.
The Ukrainian plane disaster comes amid tensions between the United States and Iran that have reached a boiling point. The 176 innocent spirits should inspire all sides to find ways to lead to a diplomatic path. It will be an unforgettable tragedy if this is the first tragedy to come.
The shooting down of the plane was a quick setback for the Iranian Revolutionary Guards in the wake of Soleimani’s death, which could also be a political blow to militants inside the regime.