Selim Selim - Berlin
Reducing expectations for an end to the war in Libya is the policy pursued by German Chancellor Angela Merkel in her statements prior to the Berlin conference, a meeting that will not end the crisis in Libya as the Germans assert, but it is only the beginning to establish peace in Libya.
But the conference itself, which brought the two major parties to the conflict, retired Major General Khalifa Hifter, the head of the reconciliation government, Fayez al-Sarraj, and the parties involved in the Libyan affairs at the dialogue table, are efforts that are calculated for German diplomacy, analysts say.
A golden opportunity
Daniel Gallagh, editor-in-chief of the "Zeinaite" magazine in Berlin, says that the conference provides the golden opportunity for Germany as a mediating force with support and cooperation with the European Union and the United Nations, and this shows the power of diplomacy to bring all parties related to Libyan affairs to the table.
He adds that if the conference fails in Berlin, this will have catastrophic results, and it will be difficult for other parties to intervene to solve the conflict again.
The focus of the German officials in this conference this time will be on the parties that have a hand in the conflict in Libya, and international politics, and not on the two parties to the conflict represented in Al-Sarraj and Haftar who will not have practical participation despite expecting their attendance or even signing an agreement, as explained by the chief editor of "Tissenit" magazine. .
Also, German officials will not only hold this conference, but will be followed by other conferences and working groups that may meet every two weeks, discussing the issue of militias and reducing the access of weapons to them.
Gallach believes that the cease-fire agreement that was a Russian-Turkish effort is an attempt to pull the rug out of the German initiative, but it failed, and this is what motivated the Germans to make all their efforts to try to resolve the conflict to cut off the roads on other parties, especially the Turks and Russians, and so that there are no military interventions from Before them, he said.
Low expectations
Libyan academic and political activist Saad Eddin Ammar concurs with this argument that the Germans hastened the convening of the Berlin Conference to resolve the Libyan crisis to cut off the Turkish-Russian role that conflicts with European interests on Libyan soil.
And the Libyan academic based in Germany put two scenarios for the Libyan scene after the Berlin conference, the first of which represents the success in imposing a cease-fire by sending European forces supporting peace in Libya, but he fears dividing the country.
The second scenario is the failure of the conference, which means the continuation of the proxy war on Libyan soil, which Germany and European countries do not want, so that a new Syria is not to be flooded with irregular immigrants, with Berlin being the worst affected.
The Libyan activist says that there are several factors in the Berlin conference biased to Haftar, including the absence of countries that have an important role in the Libyan issue, such as Qatar, Tunisia and Morocco, especially as these countries support the Saraj government.
Saad El-Din calls for the necessity of naming things by their names that there is an aggressor party, which is Haftar, on a legitimate and internationally recognized government, and the international community must support it by all means and take measures to stop armaments, and punish violators by a decision of the UN Security Council.