Analysis: "Opposition grinds the knives - a toxic cocktail for the prime minister"

Anyone who thought that the political spring would be calmer after the fall nail cutters with disbelief threat to the Minister of Labor will have to think about.

The message in this year's first party leadership debate touches on the spring. It is all about judging a further sharpened tone and increased level of conflict in Swedish politics.

Stefan Löfven and the government look to have a difficult journey until the next election.

On the one hand, the Left Party now wants to take the step fully and extend cooperation with the Moderates and the Christian Democrats to try to topple the government in Parliament.

On the other hand, the Moderates are clear with their message: The goal is an extra choice to dismiss Stefan Löfven.

Together, these two objectives can prove to be a toxic cocktail for the prime minister and for the government.

The Left Party's ambition in its attempt to run over the government is to push Löfven to concessions, the Moderates' ambition is to dismiss the government, and that ambition is shared by both the Christian Democrats and the Sweden Democrats.

So even if the Left Party does not want to dismiss Löfven, that is precisely what can be the consequence if the opposition parties can unite and thus run over the government in Parliament.

Already this autumn, when the opposition directed a distrust threat to the Minister of Labor, the Social Democrats' group leader in the parliament warned of new elections. The fact that the opposition is running over the government on the budget, which is what is actually happening, is a much bigger thing.

The process that is now being initiated in the Riksdag can thus have far-reaching consequences. Moreover, this kind of political struggle in a central budget issue can be driven by its own dynamics into a situation where the parties lose control of the process.

For both the Left Party and the Moderates, the harsher tone towards the government is partly to deal with internal problems. Following the January agreement, Jonas Sjöstedt has been criticized internally for having made Löfven too easy to wind down. That is what Sjöstedt is now trying to bring back with tougher demands on the government.

For the Moderates, the situation is similar. The party's conclusion today is that the Moderates made an overly smooth figure during the last term of office. That is what UIf Kristersson is trying to cure now. The press is big from within the party organization to become tougher towards the government, among other things to try to stop the electoral flow to the Sweden Democrats.

However, there is still time for the government to save the situation. Stefan Löfven's catchy message on Wednesday was that the Moderates' bid of SEK 3 billion more to the municipalities is too "stingy". The prime minister says he wants to have greater investments in the municipalities, but does not want to tell how much.

Nor can the Social Democrats afford to let the Moderates bid on them on their own half. Welfare has always been one of the most important issues of social democracy. So expect that the Social Democrats and thus the government will offer everything that the opposition in the Riksdag will agree on. Only then can Löfven also divide the common front that would otherwise threaten to emerge in Parliament.

The Moderates and Christian Democrats have also set their own limits on how much they can bid: Everything should be financed with spending cuts in other areas. And here the opposition parties feel completely different, which drastically reduces the scope for increased state grants to the municipalities.

However, there are savings where the opposition parties actually think roughly the same and could therefore agree. Two such examples are the development year and the initial deduction. The development year is a new variant of the free year passed by the Environment Party and the entry tax deduction is lower employer fees for newly arrived and young people, a heart issue for the Center Party.

This teaches that these parties are also prepared to open the wallet to invite the opposition parties in the Riksdag.

No matter how this ends, the country's municipalities will be able to count on clutching at the box office when spring's big political bid auction is over.