- Iran is crossed by social protests against the government in place, mainly by students. For the moment, the government is not using too massive a repression, far from that used in November 2019, which had killed hundreds of people.
- Is this a major change in Iran due to its external geopolitical difficulties?
- For Jonathan Piron, historian specialist in Iran, it is necessary to see above all a change in the dispute before reading a modification of the repression.
Protests in Iran have escalated in recent weeks. If some have targeted the United States or the United Kingdom, a social protest has been targeting the government for several days.
The Iranian government was able to benefit from an internal calm, the country meeting in sacred union after the death of General Qassem Soleimani, killed by the United States. But the situation changed after the government recognized its responsibility in the crash of a Ukrainian airliner, destroyed "by mistake" by a Tehran missile on January 8. The plane contained 82 Iranians as well as Canadians and Ukrainians. Since then, anger has been raging again.
A local news agency reported that Sunday's protesters, mostly students, shouted "Death to the dictator!" And chanted slogans hostile to the Guardians of the Revolution, the Iranian ideological army. Images on social networks also showed demonstrators bypassing American flags placed on the ground instead of trampling them.
It is not the first time that the country's youth have sought to voice their dissatisfaction. In the past, protests were quickly crushed in the blood. Can the scenario change this time? For Jonathan Piron, historian and political scientist specializing in the Middle East and more specifically Iran, we should not overestimate the current movement, more lonely than it seems.
The Iranian government leaves enough room for the demonstrators for the moment, far from the repression of November 2019. Is there a change in the way it deals with social protest, given the current geopolitical context?
We must see the government play the watch and bet on the dissipation of the movement more than a change in its policy of repression. For the moment, the demonstrations of the past few days only concern a specific category of people and in specific places, namely university students. First, it is a part of the Iranian population that has always been used to protest, so the government is not worried. Then and above all, it is a fairly limited mobilization, which does not affect all social categories and does not concern all the country, not like the scenario of last November for example.
Are the current events not different from the previous ones anyway?
What is new is the feeling of anger at the power in place, described as a liar and incompetent. Students have always had this criticism, but now there is tangible evidence to support this statement: the total failure of the plane crash, and the lie that resulted. The question now is what will happen now that there was this demonstration and that the whole population could see that the government lied to them and did not show themselves to be infallible, as he always claimed? How will the rest of the country, excluding students, react to what everyone considers a betrayal?
We see American flags not being trampled, accusations of dictatorship towards power ... The exacerbated patriotism on which Iran has relied to manage its internal crises is it over?
It is true that power can no longer rely on the feeling of national unity on which it has always capitalized. However, student protesters should not be seen as wanting to free themselves from Iran. In a statement in recent days, the main protesters have indicated both their anger at the ruling power, but also their strong criticism against the United States, described as imperialists. They consider that the Americans, with their sanctions, are responsible for the current situation. So the attachment to Iran is still very marked, it is only the power that is disputed.
What future for this mobilization and for social protest in Iran?
What remains to be seen is whether the demonstration ignites and affects the whole country or not. There, it will be interesting to see how the power will react and respond to it. However, November 2019 passed by, the demonstrators saw the force of the repression, and there is a massive fear that it would happen again among the population. Everyone is afraid of a Syrian bis regime which will massacre its population if it revolts too much.
Will this fear be enough to paralyze the population? In any case, if the government is used to being confronted with light demonstrations, there are also more and more broader protests which encompass the country, and at increasingly closer frequencies. And that, the power is afraid of it.
World
Trump warns Tehran: "There cannot be another massacre of peaceful protesters"
World
British ambassador to Iran briefly arrested
- Demonstration
- World
- contestation
- Iran