“Mutual concessions will be required”: will it be possible to establish a truce in Libya

The command of the Libyan National Army (LNA) Marshal Khalifa Haftar issued a statement in which he welcomed the Russian-Turkish initiative to establish a truce in the country. However, the military announced their intention to continue the operation in the north-west of the country.

"The LNA command welcomes the initiative ... aimed at establishing peace ... declares that the efforts of the armed forces in the war against terrorist groups will continue," the statement says.

The document, the text of which is quoted by RIA Novosti, notes the intention to continue work on creating a civil state in Libya. However, they see no other way to achieve this goal in addition to the destruction of "terrorist groups" in the LNA.

“These groups have established control over the capital of Tripoli and receive assistance from some countries and governments that supply them with military equipment and ammunition,” the statement said.

Thus, the LNA commented on the joint statement of the presidents of Russia and Turkey made following the talks in Istanbul on January 8. They, including, discussed the Libyan crisis. Vladimir Putin and Recep Tayyip Erdogan, as mediators, called on “all parties in Libya to cease hostilities from 00:00 on January 12, declare a sustainable ceasefire, backed up by the necessary measures that must be taken to stabilize the situation on the earth and normalize everyday life in Tripoli and others cities, and immediately sit down at the negotiating table. "

The leaders declared their commitment to the sovereignty and national unity of Libya, and also called the political process the only way to achieve peace in the country. The heads of state also said that they support the ongoing Berlin process, which is capable of "yielding tangible results."

Earlier, representatives of the Government of National Accord (PNS) sitting in Tripoli also welcomed the results of the meeting between the Russian and Turkish leaders, noting that they greatly appreciate the efforts of the two countries aimed at resolving the conflict in Libya.

• Military Libyan National Army
• Reuters
• © Esam Omran Al-Fetori

Period of anarchy

The beginning of the mentioned Berlin process was laid in September 2019, when negotiations on a Libyan settlement took place in the capital of Germany. The consultations were attended by official representatives of Russia, the USA, France, Great Britain, Italy, Egypt, the United Arab Emirates, Turkey, the League of Arab States and the European Union.

The second round of international negotiations took place in early October. According to the results of the consultations in the Russian Foreign Ministry, the parties made an “in-depth exchange of views” on the current military-political situation in Libya. However, no specific measures have been worked out following these meetings. As stated by the PNS Foreign Minister, Mohammed Siyala, the next conference may be held in mid-January.

After the overthrow of the government of Muammar Gaddafi in 2011, Libya was not able to overcome the military-political fragmentation. There are two centers of power in the country that are fighting each other. In the north-east of Libya, in the city of Tobruk, there is an interim government led by Abdullah at-Thani. It relies on the military resources of the Libyan National Army.

Another military-political center is functioning in the north-west of the country, in the Tripoli region, where the Islamic groups fighting against Gaddafi have consolidated their positions. In 2014, they formed an alternative government of salvation and the New Universal National Congress, supported by Qatar and Turkey.

Both sides during 2014-2015 fought a fierce battle. During this campaign, Haftar’s troops managed to take control of the large Libyan city of Benghazi. In 2015, with the UN mediation, the Government of National Accord was formed in the country, which included the New General National Congress as a result of negotiations.

The businessman Faiz Sarraj was chosen as the head of the new government, and the fight against the “Islamic State” * was named as one of the goals of the PNS. However, the government was not recognized in the east of the country and could not control the situation throughout Libya.

• Consequences of hostilities
• Reuters
• © Goran Tomasevic

In April 2019, Haftar ordered an attack on Tripoli to liberate the city from "terrorists." In response, armed groups based in the western regions of Libya have announced the start of a retaliatory operation called “Volcano of Wrath”. As the representative of the Tobruk provisional government Aref Ali Nayed told RIA Novosti on January 9, now the army of Khalifa Haftar is “only a few kilometers from the center” of Tripoli.

In this situation, the PNS turned to Turkey for military assistance, whose authorities recognize the legitimacy of the Sarraj government. Ankara responded to the request: at the end of November, memorandums on security and military cooperation, as well as on limiting jurisdiction at sea, were signed between the PNS and Turkey.

The signing of the documents was commented on in the Russian Foreign Ministry. “We hope that the parties to the aforementioned memoranda will show political prudence and will refrain from steps that could further aggravate the already difficult situation in Libya and the Mediterranean as a whole,” said Maria Zakharova, the agency’s official in early December 2019.

She also noted that the agreement gave rise to allegations that Ankara is trying to “legalize its military support” to the PNS, including through an open violation of the arms embargo against Libya.

However, a document stipulating the sending of the Turkish military to Libya, as well as training and military cooperation of the parties, was approved by the Turkish parliament on January 2. Turkish lawmakers also approved a memorandum on the delimitation of marine zones, which caused dissatisfaction with Greece. On January 7, Nasser Ammar, commander of the support forces for Operation Volcano of Wrath, announced the arrival of the first group of Turkish troops in Tripoli.

On Wednesday, January 8, Sarraj and Haftar arrived in Rome, where they had to negotiate with Italian Prime Minister Giuseppe Conte, but in the end, Sarraj did not meet with any of the politicians. According to the head of the Russian contact group on the Libyan settlement of Lev Dengov, this was due to organizational problems.

“The interests of Turkey and Russia coincide”

According to experts, despite some disagreements, Ankara and Moscow were able to find a common approach to launching the process of resolving the Libyan crisis. This point of view was expressed by the deputy director of the Institute for African Studies of the Russian Academy of Sciences Leonid Fituni.

“Russia and Turkey as a whole have rather different interests, because in addition to geopolitical goals, Ankara also has ideological and confessional interests, which are of considerable importance for this region. In Russian politics, however, the confessional component is completely absent, ”the source said.

“Therefore, Turkey and Russia have long worked out a common position on the Libyan agenda. And now the positions of the parties have really come closer, despite the fact that some third players tried to use this situation to quarrel our countries, ”the expert noted.

• Vladimir Putin and Tayyip Erdogan
• globallookpress.com
• © Xinhua

In his opinion, at the moment, chances remain that despite the harsh rhetoric of the conflicting parties and the acute phase of the conflict, a peace can still be reached in Libya.

“This is a matter of rather complicated negotiations, mutual concessions of the warring parties in Libya will be required, to which Ankara and Moscow can push them. It should be noted that Putin and Erdogan’s personal efforts play a high role in Russian-Turkish coordination. They have developed a fairly trusting relationship, which allows them to work together to solve problems, ”added Fituni.

A similar point of view is shared by Vladimir Avatkov, senior researcher at the Center for Post-Soviet Studies of the IMEMO Primakov Russian Academy of Sciences. In his opinion, both Russia and Turkey are interested in establishing peace in Libya.

“Now the objective interests of Turkey and Russia coincide, if we talk about the situation in Libya. Both countries are interested in peace in this region, ”the expert explained in a comment to RT.

According to Avatkov, the positive experience of conflict resolution, which was accumulated by Ankara and Moscow in the framework of Syrian cooperation, can be used today in Libya.

“In Libya, a very difficult situation remains, the civil war continues. Given the importance of Turkey and Russia for the region, the fact that they have developed a common line to resolve the Libyan conflict is critical and can contribute to the establishment of peace in Libya in the long term, ”the expert summed up.