Is this the start of a new showdown between Edinburgh and London? Prime Minister Michael Gove's chief of staff announced on Sunday that the government would not agree to the holding of a new referendum on the independence of Scotland after the large victory Conservatives in Thursday’s legislative elections.
But five years after 55% of Scottish voters rejected independence for the first time, Scottish Prime Minister Nicola Sturgeon replied on the BBC that it would not be enough to say "no". "You cannot keep Scotland in the Union against its will," said the leader of the Scottish National Party (SNP). "If Boris Johnson is confident on the Union issue, then he should be confident enough to (...) let people decide," she added.
After the broad victory of Boris Johnson and his campaign for Brexit, the question of Scotland's independence has returned to the fore. And for good reason. During the legislative elections, the independence party won more than 80% of the seats, recording its second highest victory in its history. The political party now brings the number of its representatives in the British Parliament to 48, instead of 13 in 2017.
"Scotland rejected Boris Johnson and the Tories"
In the eyes of Nicola Sturgeon, "it is clear that the type of future desired by the majority of Scots is very different from that chosen by much of the rest of the United Kingdom. Scotland rejected Boris Johnson and the Tories, and again, we said no to Brexit, "she said Friday after the election results were announced.
But the atmosphere in Edinburgh was anything but exhilarating. "I think a lot of Scots were shocked on Friday morning. People here didn't expect such a large conservative majority," said Andrew Judge, deputy director of politics and international relations at the university. from Glasgow, contacted by France 24.
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Nicola Sturgeon plans to present fairly quickly a power transfer program that would allow Scotland to hold a referendum free from legal constraints. But the fight may be tough. "This is not about asking permission from Boris Johnson or any other politician in Westminster. The people of Scotland have spoken. Now is the time to decide our own future," warned the Scottish Prime Minister.
It is in this context that she will meet next week Boris Johnson, who had excluded during the campaign the possibility of a second referendum on the Scottish question. "The confrontation will take a long time," said Andrew Judge. "The SNP is at an impasse. It is clear that the question of who should govern Scotland was central to this election. But, at the same time, support for independence has remained fairly static since the last referendum, at 45%. " "The fact that most Scots have a firm opinion that hasn't changed much over the years makes things even more difficult for the SNP," added the specialist.
No Catalan referendum
Above all, there is no question of the SNP organizing a Catalan referendum. "They want Westminster to issue an order under section 30, which is an agreement that any referendum would be respected by both parties, otherwise it would have no constitutional status in the UK," said Andrew Judge. But the panel does not rule out legislating without the consent of the British government.
Whatever happens, the process of a possible referendum may be very slow. For Andrew Judge, the Scottish Prime Minister has every interest in continuing her agenda even if it is not likely to produce instant results. "The only thing that could result - even if I think it's very unlikely - is that Boris Johnson is considering some sort of procedure to start a discussion on Scottish independence. But, even then, it won't happen not for a number of years. "
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According to the specialist, only one strategy could turn in favor of the SNP and ensure it a more favorable result than that of 2014: the slowdown of economic activity in Scotland during the Brexit negotiations. "Economic fear could be the only thing that can help produce a referendum result different from the previous one."
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