Geneva (AFP)

The airlines announced Wednesday that they were hard hit in 2019 by trade wars and social tensions, with net profits well below expectations, even if they remain in the green.

Freight activity for its part is at its weakest since the financial crisis of 2008-2009.

The airline industry will have generated a net profit of $ 25.9 billion in 2019, down 7.5% from the latest forecast in June when Iata had already revised its forecast by 21% to down to 28 billion dollars, announced the organization, which has 290 members and represents 82% of global air traffic.

In 2018, profits reached $ 27.3 billion with revenue per passenger of $ 6.22, compared to $ 5.70 in 2019 and a forecast of $ 6.20 for 2020.

The sector will remain in 2019 the beneficiary for the tenth consecutive year, 2015 and 2016 having been the best years over this period.

For 2020, the Iata expects a net profit of $ 29.3 billion by betting on "an expected rebound in international trade of 3.3% compared to 0.9% in 2019" with "a truce" in trade tensions, in "a year of elections in the United States and a price of oil that should" remain relatively low ".

"The slowdown in economic growth, geopolitical tensions, social unrest, and the lingering uncertainty about Brexit have created a harder-than-anticipated environment for airlines," said the managing director of the airline. Iata, Alexandre de Juniac, during a press conference.

In this sluggish context, air cargo was the most affected and demand in 2019 was "the weakest since the financial crisis of 2008-2009" with a 5% drop in activity. explained Brian Pearce, the organization's economist.

- Boycott of the plane: no effect detected -

For 2020, the organization expects passenger traffic growth of 4.1%, compared with 4.2% in 2019, while traffic could double by 2037 to reach 8.2 billion air passengers.

According to Mr Pearce, the organization has so far not detected any impact on traffic in Europe of the boycott of the plane initiated by the young Swedish activist Greta Thunberg.

"We have not been able to detect" an effect on the traffic, "but what could have slowed the traffic in Europe are the taxes imposed by the governments (on plane tickets, Ed). "The future, this (the boycott of the plane) will be a subject in the richest countries.The traffic growth will come from Asia.Europe is a relatively mature market," he said.

Despite the trade war between the United States and China, it is in the latter country that air traffic recorded the strongest growth with October 2019, over 10 months, an 8.5% increase in domestic traffic by compared to the same period in 2018.

Intra-European markets, with strong growth in the Eastern European countries, and the Asian market, also recorded strong growth between 7% and 8%.

In terms of financial revenues, US-based companies, which account for 65 percent of the industry's profits in 2019, will continue to remain the best performers, according to Iata.

In the European market, much less consolidated than in the United States, for example, at least a dozen companies have been wiped off the map in the last two years, according to Iata.

"There is a fragility of airlines in general and of a number of European companies in particular.It is not totally excluded that we still see a number of companies in difficulty in 2020" in an area where " the competition is very strong "and" where it is expensive to operate ", according to Mr. de Juniac.

© 2019 AFP