Frankfurt (AFP)

The President of the European Central Bank Christine Lagarde will weigh every word Thursday after the end of its first monetary policy meeting, in a perilous context of economic sluggishness and internal tensions.

This meeting "will be more devoted to the way in which Mrs Lagarde will establish her stall of president of the ECB than to the political decisions", estimates Chiara Zangarelli, economist at Nomura.

Unless a big surprise, the custodians of the euro should keep interest rates at their lowest and continue asset purchases at a rate of 20 billion euros per month, as the main weapon of support for the economy announced in September and reactivated beginning of November.

The issue will be elsewhere: Christine Lagarde, the first head of the ECB without training economist or direct experience of central banks, herself warned last Monday before the European Parliament that it was in "accelerated learning phase".

"I try to learn German, but I also try to learn the language of central banks, not to disappoint those who think that every word carries the weight of one hundred years of monetary policy," warned the former director of the International Monetary Fund, who succeeded Mario Draghi in early November for an eight-year term.

- Series of questions -

If this confession of humility slipped into a smile bears the mark of the Lagarde style, a professional lawyer known for her skillful communication, she had accompanied him with a request: "Give me a little patience, do not overinterpret. 'will have my own way of dealing with some key issues'.

Now the ritual of the monetary policy press conference, at 2:30 pm (13:30 GMT), is to weigh every word to address the markets: in the slightest adjective qualifying economic conditions or risks, regulars see the announcement future decisions of the central bank.

In a context still marked by trade tensions, the ECB should not touch the measures unveiled in September by Mario Draghi, but could lower its growth forecast for the year 2020, while it will deliver an extended forecast game to the market. horizon 2022.

Also, Ms. Lagarde should be questioned "on the adequacy of monetary policy with the downturn," predicts Gilles Moec, economist at Axa, joined by AFP.

On this point, the president of the ECB could mark "an immediate change" in its communication, conditioning new measures "an assessment of possible side effects of the policy," said Mark Wall, economist at Deutsche Bank.

- Strategic Review -

Another series of questions should focus on the future of the negative rate on bank deposits, already lowered from -0.40 to -0.50% in September: it is tantamount to taxing banks on the liquidity they leave behind. the ECB window instead of lending them, but is starting to have an impact on households.

In Germany, some banks no longer hesitate to tax from the first euro cent deposited on a new savings account, by assigning a negative rate very unpopular in a country where one prepares his retirement by saving rather than buying his home.

Ms. Lagarde has another priority to close ranks in a board of governors divided as ever at the end of the Draghi era, and who had publicly spread its differences.

To mark the change of regime, it should officially launch Thursday an overview review of the objectives and instruments of the ECB, reflecting on its strategy including the imperative of climate protection.

Finally, the former French Minister of the Economy will have more than ever to deploy its political talents to "convince European leaders to relax their national public finances, to set up a common budgetary tool and to accelerate the Banking Union and capital, "Wall said.

Lagarde is expected to reiterate Thursday calls for Europe to innovate and invest in the face of economic and climate challenges, one of the keys according to her to help the ECB to win its bet on growth and price developments.

© 2019 AFP