The Washington Institute: Has Iran begun losing its influence over the Iraqi tribes?

An article published by the Washington Institute for Near East Policy on its website dealt with the escalation of protests in Iraq, and confirmed that various Iraqi tribes began to turn away from Iran after some of them were supportive of it.

Author Philip Smith said in the article that between the escalation of the pace of protests and the resignation of Prime Minister Adel Abdul Mahdi recently, recent Iraqi events have drawn attention to the future of Iranian influence in Iraq.

Smith - a researcher at the University of Maryland - said that a number of influential Iraqi tribes in southern Iraq have set aside their traditional sectarian nervousness as a result of their anger at the violations of the pro-Iranian factions, and the failures of the Baghdad government to protect many of their basic needs, sometimes used for that violence.

Tehran is often portrayed as controlling Shiite militias and other proxies working to serve its goals in Iraq, but many of these parties - according to the author - have tribal loyalties as well, and are steadily engaging in the conflict either in response to the actions of pro-Iranian groups against tribal leaders or because of Militias largely fail to provide security or to curb corruption.

Backfired
The writer said that the Khafaga tribes - which is one of the major Shiite tribes in southern Iraq - fit a model of two main parts, one of which explains how the tribes are striving towards loyalty to Iran, which is the strongest stake in the conflict, and the other explains how Tehran's attempts to pressure it Backfired.

During the rule of the late President Saddam Hussein, the Khafaga tribe pushed thousands of its elements for recruitment into the armed forces when the Iran-Iraq war was taking place, and when their "Shiite brothers" rebelled in the south against Saddam in 1991.

Later, precisely when the American occupation of Iraq reached its limit and the Syrian uprising became impossible for war, many Khafagha clans began to bias more and more alongside pro-Iranian organizations.

In 2012, for example, Aws al-Khafaji - a tribal sheikh - defected from the leader of the Sadrist movement of Muqtada al-Sadr and created the "Abi al-Fadl al-Abbas forces" that he used to recruit fighters to support the regime of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad.

Another tribal leader, Sheikh Raad al-Khafaji, was said to have been a leader of the Hezbollah Brigades, "the most fanatical and pro-Iranian group," and the United States has designated it a "terrorist organization."

However, the position of the Khafaga tribe regarding these connections began to change in February 2019 when the Popular Mobilization Forces arrested Sheikh Aws al-Khafaji and closed the headquarters of the Abu al-Fadl al-Abbas forces.

According to the Washington Institute article, the popular crowd was arrested because Aws al-Khafaji accused Iran of involvement in the assassination of writer and novelist Alaa Majzoub al-Khafaji, who was known for his criticism of Tehran's interference in Iraq.

Sheikh Aws’s position on recent events was marked by his declared support for anti-Iraqi protests. The tribal youth followed suit, and they erected slogans in support of the protests around Baghdad.

Other tribes, some of them predominantly Shiite and mostly mixed or Sunni, are now starting to set aside their sectarian differences to adopt a more unitary approach to the pressure exerted by Iran and its loyalists in the country, Baghdad’s disregard for it, and its constant fear for security.

Tribal elements played a big role in fueling the protests. In Baghdad, Basra, Dhi Qar and Maysan, those elements took the initiative in using protests to block roads and even resort to violence. The tendency towards revenge - in the opinion of Philip Smith - emerged after several demonstrators were killed.

Muqtada al-Sadr
Muqtada al-Sadr, for his part, has tried to act as a political front for those protesting against Iranian influence and government violations. Sadr City - the main stronghold of its supporters - has witnessed some of the largest protests.

The question remains: What are the options of the United States regarding what is happening in Iraq?

Smith says US policymakers, who seek to banish Shi’ite and Sunni tribes from Iran, should address the real issues that Iraqis are currently focusing on.

For example - and the talk is still for Smith - the United States, which has long focused on providing security and military solutions to the Baghdad government, should demonstrate its soft and rough power in the face of Iran by paying more attention to retraining and equipping some sectors of the local Shi'a tribes, and giving them the necessary means To express her concerns and problems.