Foreign Policy: The enemies of Sudan's democracy lie in wait for the circles

An article in the American magazine Foreign Policy warned that the enemies of Sudanese democracy lie in wait for the circles, and that the country whose people succeeded in overthrowing the "tyrant" Omar al-Bashir regime is now fighting an epic in order to secure freedom.

The article written by Rebecca Hamilton, associate professor at the College of Law at the American University in Washington, said that Al-Bashir’s 30-year-old regime squandered the country’s human, financial, and natural resources.

She pointed out that the transitional government in charge of the matter was entrusted with the task of laying the foundations for a new Sudan based on three pillars: freedom, peace and justice. To achieve this, the transitional government has identified 16 steps, including - for example - resolving the economic crisis, preventing further deterioration of the economy, dismantling the structure of the defunct system based on the idea of ​​"empowerment", and building a state of law and institutions.

Hamilton described this as "tremendous" action even if the government completed the three-year transitional period, adding that it was not entirely clear that it would be able to complete it.

The coming months will likely determine whether Sudanese democracy will die even before it is born.

The American Academy believes that there are many threats that may prevent Sudan from reaching the democratic elections stage scheduled for 2022.

The National Convention and the Deep State
She says that the first threat comes from the National Congress Party and its supporters, the transitional government recently enacted legislation to dissolve the party, but the passage of that law does not mean that the members of the National Congress will leave the political scene.

Although members of the National Congress Party are prohibited from participating in the new Legislative Council, they can still do much to undermine the reforms the transitional government is seeking to undertake.

Hamilton gave examples of what she says of the supporters of the National Congress in a campaign of this kind through the platforms of mosques and social media, and it seems that their aim in this is to urge people to change their positions on the transitional government by claiming that its ministers are determined to destroy the traditional Sudanese culture by establishing a secular state that respects the rights Human.

There is another example of the threat to the transitional government posed by the "deep state": Although many government employees have no sympathy for the NCP, some of these will work to block change, according to the author.

Early elections
A third example of threats is that existing political elites may call for early elections, and under the terms of transitional measures, neither members of the transitional government or the Sovereign Council are entitled to contest the 2022 elections, and this means that opposition parties present on the scene - some of which formed before the Bashir era And during it - it will not have much direct authority during the transitional period.

According to the author of the article, the wisdom of these conditions lies in the fact that the transitional period will give the young generation - many of whom were involved in politics during the revolution - time to prepare for their electoral campaign, and if elections are held ahead of schedule, this will be in the interest of political parties. The list you are most likely to achieve victorious.

To make matters worse - in the opinion of Rebecca Hamilton - the army and the rapid support forces and internal security all have conflicting loyalties, interests and cultures, which opens the door for the possibility of conflict between the various units in the security sector.

Rapid Support Forces
According to the article, foreign parties - such as the UAE, Saudi Arabia, and the European Union - provided Sudan with financial assistance in exchange for "services" provided by the Rapid Support Forces.

The elements of the Rapid Support Militia operate mercenaries in Yemen, and the European Union uses them as a tool to help them tackle human trafficking operations in Sudan and the countries surrounding it, according to the expression of Foreign Policy article that warned that this relationship has now stopped.

Rebecca Hamilton - the author of The Struggle for Darfur - claims that it is difficult to trace the money flowing into Sudan in the Bashir era, but it specifically refers to the "involvement" of the Rapid Support Forces led by General Mohamed Hamdan Hamidati in "illegal smuggling" "It ranges from gold mining (from the Darfur mines owned by Hamidati) to the arms trade (which the neighboring Central African Republic is buying)".

Until such time as those operations are investigated, any civilian-led government will not be immune from the threat of a coup d'état.

Unresolved conflicts
Moreover, there are unresolved conflicts in the peripheral areas of Sudan, in reference to the author to the regions of Darfur, South Kordofan and Blue Nile. The American university professor considers that reaching peace agreements with armed groups in those areas is necessary not only for the stability of the country, but also to enable the transitional government to achieve the goal of the revolution in building a country that accommodates all groups of the Sudanese people.

Hamilton praised the transitional government's decision to delay the formation of the Legislative Council until peace agreements are concluded with armed groups, so that representatives of "marginalized" areas can participate in it. She described the decision as a "wise" move in the short term, but warned that the establishment of the Legislative Council should not be postponed indefinitely.

The last threat that has always waited is that the people who made the revolution will withdraw their support for the transitional government if they do not see a tangible improvement in their daily living, and this makes "economic recovery" a top priority for the government on a list of urgent issues.

As one protester leader said - the author did not mention his name - "The people have shown extraordinary courage, and then expect extraordinary results" from the government.

Mass cleansing
Hamilton stated that, during her recent visit to Sudan, it became clear to her the size of the challenge awaiting the government to achieve the principles of freedom, peace and justice, after thirty years of "authoritarian" rule.

It will be easy for the transitional government - as the article put it - to fulfill the aspirations of many Sudanese people who yearn to purify the country from all who have been associated with the former regime "in a comprehensive way."

However, the writer continues, saying that such a step is nothing more than a continuation of a vortex that has been associated with Sudan since its independence.

One of the paradoxes that Rebecca Hamilton mentioned in her article shows the extent of the corruption that has ravaged the body of the Sudanese state under the regime of Omar al-Bashir, the one that she stood on her own during her visit to Khartoum.

She stated that she had met the Director General of Omdurman Teaching Hospital, Muhammad al-Hajj Hamid, while he was turning cards in his possession, and the American Academy says that these papers shed light on some aspects of corruption in the hospital.

It quoted Hamed as saying that these documents revealed how some of the workers recruited politically by the previous system of hospital management, were transferring the money that should have gone to treat patients to the pockets of those who owe allegiance to the ruling National Congress Party.

An example of corruption
Among those documents showed that six of the junior doctors at the hospital affiliated with the ruling party were receiving a salary of $ 340 a month, while their non-members of the National Congress were receiving salaries in the Sudanese pound, equivalent to only forty dollars per month.

And since seven countries - including Libya, Egypt, and South Sudan - alongside terrorist groups such as Boko Haram and the Somali Mujahideen Youth Movement, are located next to Sudan, this would foretell the bad turn that is staring the country’s future in the event that the transitional measures fail.

However, the writer returns and says that it is wrong to assume that such failure is unavoidable. There is a path that leads the country forward if all the parties that want to see a democratic Sudan emerge from the transitional period.

Perhaps, according to Hamilton, this requires patience with a transitional government that takes two steps forward and three steps back.