Washington (AFP)

Donald Trump continues to play with the nerves of his major trading partners with punitive tariffs, sowing disbelief and misunderstanding about his strategy.

For now, the US economy has weathered the unpredictable decisions of the US president quite well, even though agriculture and manufacturing are among the collateral damage.

With China, the prospect of a swift end to the trade war it unleashed 18 months ago shattered on Tuesday when the White House host said he had "no deadline" ".

"In a way, I like the idea of ​​waiting after the election for the agreement with China," said the president, November 2020.

Taken aback by this flip-flop, the markets fell to their lowest level since October.

In recent weeks, the president was convinced he could conclude quickly with Beijing.

From the Oval Office and in the presence of the Chinese chief negotiator, he had even mentioned a signature in mid-November with his counterpart Xi Jinping.

- "Trump likes the rates" -

"I think the only way to understand this is to recognize that President Trump likes tariffs," says Edward Alden, a trade policy expert at the Council on Foreign Relations (CFR).

"He thinks these are by far the most effective weapons, and he believes that tariffs are damaging to competitors but are good for the US economy," he says.

In fact, the growth of the world's largest economy was stronger than expected in the third quarter at 2.1% year-on-year, but it is mainly because of household consumption. investment of companies suffering from the uncertainty created by friction.

At the same time, the Chinese economy slowed sharply, to 6% year-on-year, affected by tariffs.

And Washington could take another blow to the Asian giant if it imposed an additional 15% tariff on December 15, targeting some $ 160 billion of consumer goods made in China including mobile phones and sportswear .

For HFE economists, "if the president does not quickly return to his comments, it will be a knockout to the hopes of an agreement between China and the United States to end their trade war." A psychological blow for consumers too.

Especially since China is not an isolated target. On Monday, the Republican President unexpectedly announced additional tariffs on steel and aluminum from Brazil and Argentina.

Washington has also threatened to overtax $ 2.4 billion in French products including champagne and Roquefort in retaliation for a French tax against the digital giants, Google, Apple, Facebook and Amazon.

- "Whimsical" -

"(Donald) Trump's whimsical mood infuses an enormous amount of uncertainty and volatility into US trade negotiations with their major trading partners," says Eswar Prasad, a professor of business policy at Cornell University and specialist of China.

In addition, unexpected changes in the midst of already complicated negotiations often compromise his own bargaining team while his advisors find themselves in the acrobatic situation of sometimes explaining the inexplicable.

Why for example have announced a phase 1 agreement with Beijing if the technical details were not yet settled?

"This also makes other countries less willing to make substantial concessions, because any potential transaction may be spoiled by a tweet or a random statement from Trump," says Prasad.

But in a new flip-flop, Donald Trump on Tuesday minimized the trade dispute with France during a meeting in the British capital.

"We have a minor dispute" and "we will probably be able to overcome it," the US president said in a meeting in London with his French counterpart on the sidelines of a NATO summit.

"I think that with President Trump we can solve this situation," said Emmanuel Macron on his side.

"What we hope is that there is still room to discuss, consult and that the mass is not said," said shortly before the AFP in Washington the French secretary of state for digital, Cédric O.

He also pointed out that if the United States actually imposed new tariffs, it would not be worthy of an allied country and economic partner.

© 2019 AFP