Egyptian-Turkish controversy .. Does the East Mediterranean gas trigger a conflict to reshape regional powers?

Abdel Hafez El Sawy

The Egyptian role in Libya seems to have moved beyond the issue of preserving its national security and securing its western borders, in the direction of seeking to manage the region by the coalition of Egypt, Saudi Arabia and the UAE

Egyptian support for retired brigade Khalifa Hifter, who is leading an armed struggle against the legitimate al-Wefaq government, is no longer hidden, despite the threat and instability that it causes in Libya.

President Abdel Fattah al-Sisi's papers are mixed with regard to the nature of his relationship with his neighbors in Libya.In April 2016, Sisi expressed the exclusion of the idea of ​​attacking Libya and acquiring its oil under the pretext of countering terrorism, after a group of Egyptians were slaughtered in the Libyan city of Sirte.

Speaking to the United Nations in mid-September, Sisi also addressed the issue of redistribution of wealth in Libya, angered Libyans who considered it an interference in their internal affairs.

Finally, Egypt declared its objection to the border demarcation agreement between Libya and Turkey, and considered it a lack of legal legitimacy, to respond to Turkey that it will continue to implement the agreement without regard to the "screaming and howling of some," which raises the question of the possibility of the eruption of a regional conflict over the background of gas wealth in the eastern Mediterranean.

Energy in Egypt and Turkey
Energy sources in Egypt, according to the Ministry of Petroleum data, are natural gas by 55%, oil by 41%, and hydropower by 2%. Turkey's energy sources include oil, natural gas and coal, accounting for 66.7% of energy consumption, 24.5% of water resources and 8.6% of renewable energy.

Egypt achieved self-sufficiency in natural gas during 2019, and its petroleum trade balance achieved a surplus of about $ 9 million in 2018-2019, but these figures include the share of foreign partner estimated at 40%, which means that the fact of the petroleum trade balance of Egypt Suffers from a deficit.

Turkey relies on the import of about 75% of its energy needs from abroad, with a balance of payments of about $ 40 billion annually, and Russia, Iraq and Iran are the most important energy suppliers to Turkey.

Therefore, the issue of the Eastern Mediterranean gas is of great importance to Ankara, on the one hand it reflects an economic need, on the other hand its regional situation and the need to maintain its position, and being a regional power with historical considerations and rights in the region's wealth.

An imbalance in regional power
In 2013, by seeking to support his military coup regionally and internationally, Egypt signed an agreement to redraw the border with Cyprus, which greatly helped Egypt, Cyprus and Israel to explore for natural gas in the waters of the eastern Mediterranean.

In 2018, Egypt's Zohr field came into production, through which Egypt announced its self-sufficiency of natural gas in mid-2019, with daily production of the field 2.7 billion cubic feet.

Egypt has announced its strategy to be a regional hub for natural gas trading, through the pipeline owned by the Mediterranean Gas Company - a company owned by Egyptian and Israeli businessmen - to carry gas from Cyprus and Israel to Europe.

This is the same step that Turkey has long planned to be a regional center for natural gas trade in the region, through the transfer of gas from Azerbaijan and Russia to European countries. According to Turkish President Tayyip Erdogan, the Turkish pipeline will be launched in January 2020, bringing Russian gas to Europe via the Black Sea and Turkish territory.

Natural gas wealth and trade, therefore, is one of the areas of competition and conflict between Egypt and Turkey, although it has other political and security implications in addition to its economic dimension.

It is the step of demarcation of the border and the production of natural gas fields for the benefit of Cyprus, Greece and Israel, which raised the Turkish side, because it ignored the rights of Turkish Cyprus, so Turkey walked in 2018 ships to explore for natural gas in its water environment, as well as the water perimeter of Turkish Cyprus, and considered Turkey - Foreign Minister Gavishoglu said that the border demarcation agreement that Egypt signed with Cyprus in 2013 is illegal.

Turkish Response
In the face of Egypt's various alliances, such as the energy with Israel, Cyprus and Greece, and political with Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates; Turkey has moved to strengthen its regional position, enabling relations with Libya and pushed military support to the legitimate government of reconciliation.

In the past few days, memorandums of understanding have been signed on security cooperation, as well as an agreement on the demarcation of borders in marine waters, which Egypt, Cyprus and Greece have objected, because it will strengthen Turkey's position and presence in the natural gas exploration in the waters of the eastern Mediterranean.

The Egyptian Foreign Ministry said in a statement that the Libyan-Turkish agreements signed on November 28, 2019 were non-binding.The Egyptian objection is based on the Skhirat agreement, which brought the Wefaq government, the power to sign international agreements is the prerogative of the entire cabinet, not the president. Ministers alone.

But the Turkish president confirmed his country's determination to continue to implement the agreements in all its terms. He made the remarks while participating in the ceremony to link the Trans-Anatolian Gas Pipeline (Tanab) with the Trans-Adriatic Pipeline (TAP) to transport gas from Azerbaijan to Europe.

Erdogan said that "our exploration work will emerge from peace and prosperity, not conflict and blood," stressing that Turkey will not withdraw its ships from there "to comply with the screams of some and howling," adding that "there are those who seek to fuel tension rather than the equitable sharing of hydrocarbon resources in the East Sea." Average, and resort to the language of threat and extortion despite the possibility of fair sharing. "

According to data based on US geological sources, the wealth of Eastern Mediterranean waters from natural gas and oil is estimated at 122 trillion cubic feet of natural gas and 1.7 billion barrels of oil reserves.

Egypt's share of this wealth is estimated at 850 billion cubic meters, Cyprus is 140 billion cubic meters, and Israel is 310 billion cubic meters, a right of the Palestinian people.

Leviathan, Tanin, Karsh and Ruyi wells are estimated at 795 cubic meters of natural gas, disputed between Israel and the rest of the region, such as Lebanon and Cyprus.

Since the military coup in Egypt in the summer of 2013, the relationship between Cairo and Ankara has been strained.Turkey rejected the coup and received thousands of opposition Egyptians.Turkish president has also made a clear accusation against the Sisi regime for the murder of the late President Mohamed Morsi.