China's ambassador Gui Congyou threatened earlier on Friday with "consequences" for Sweden if the government is present at the award ceremony of Swedish PEN's Tucholsky Prize to Swedish citizen Gui Minhai, who has been imprisoned in China for four years.

But Prime Minister Stefan Löfven (S) firmly responded to the threat, saying that Minister of Culture and Democracy Amanda Lind (MP) would distribute the prize as planned. China then countered with a new threat: Lind and Löfven are deported from China if they attend the ceremony.

Björn Jerdén, director of the Asia Program at the Foreign Policy Institute, believes that China wants Sweden to have a more passive role when it comes to the case of imprisoned publisher Gui Minhai.

- China obviously believes that the case of Gui Minahi is so important that one is prepared to take the consequences. One possible motive for the threats is that Sweden should have a more passive role in this matter, he says.

Support of China

Björn Jerdén, however, believes that it is not clear what is behind China's actions.

- It may be that the ambassador and the staff at China's embassy want to show that they are doing a good job and then are on a little extra.

Does the ambassador support China in this?

- There is obviously support in Beijing to criticize the Swedish government. The ambassador does not do this all by himself. At the same time, there are still many question marks about what is his own decision and what comes from China, says Björn Jerdén.

"Threats happen under the surface"

He also says it could have consequences if China makes its threats real.

- In the past, we have seen it becoming more difficult for politicians and government officials in the country to attend meetings in China. It will be harder for companies to export to China and it will be more difficult with a visa, says Björn Jerdén.

He says that several of the methods used to punish a country do not take place openly.

- When you pronounce the threats you are diffuse and it happens under the surface. Not always easy to know what you are exposed to, which also makes it difficult to know what to expect. It is part of the point that it should be unclear. The countries that are punished must live in uncertainty, says Björn Jerdén.