• Justice: Pedro Sánchez commits two years of efforts by Spain in Belgium to bring Carles Puigdemont
  • 10-N. Navarra, the socialist fief where Bildu's independence seed grows

"Or us or the blockade." "Or us or the far right." In short: "Or we or chaos." With this epilogue the PSOE closes this second consecutive campaign, the electoral repetition in which Pedro Sánchez wanted to see the way to expand the 123 deputies of April, the final surrender of those who then denied him the Government alone. But at the last minute nerves have been unleashed. The rise of Vox in all the daily polls of the matches has ended up shaking the PSOE. Like a storm that is approaching and you do not know if it will unload and sweep with everything or just be a few drops. An irrational fear of what the 10-N that the party went through yesterday could hold, despite the fact that the president of the government and socialist candidate and his team remain convinced that they will rise. "He is sure and the data they have is good," say party sources.

The unexpected growth of the extreme right, third in many surveys, has provided Sánchez with the last argument to call for the mobilization of the progressive electorate and to appeal directly to the "defrauded" with Pablo Iglesias and Albert Rivera. The end of the campaign leaves the doubt of whether the PSOE will be able to capture votes from Citizens, as intended, and if it will be able to scratch something on its left flank. Sanchez has been dedicated mainly to attract the first, the moderates who have not identified with the right turn of Rivera.

But the data from the latest studies do not confirm the transfer of votes from Cs to the PSOE, around only 7%. Pissed off with Rivera migrate mostly to PP and Vox. And while this is happening Pablo Iglesias has become strong in his sector of the left and although he suffers from not having led to a Government of Sanchez and the entry into the scene of More Country, he faces a controlled loss.

These two circumstances limit the growth capacity of the PSOE, which on April 28 obtained the support of 28.6% of the Spaniards and 7.5 million votes. Even so, as different territorial sources explain, there is scope to achieve a new deputy for Andalusia (that of Huelva), to fight to increase a seat in Valencia or in Alicante, also in Cáceres or Badajoz and in Huesca. But it does not seem that there are options of great options to improve in Catalonia, perhaps one more, according to the sources consulted, although Sánchez maintains that they will be «first force», nor of doing so in Castilla y León, where the Socialists managed to overcome for the first time to the PP. In Madrid it is even expected to lose a parliamentarian - from 11 to 10 - as a result of the controversy in Móstoles, where the mayor has plugged in several relatives.

Yesterday, in an interview on TVE, Sanchez called the two million undecided at the polls that can be decisive. Without clarifying how many seats he aspires or assuming that he will move forward, he defended that they have gone "from less to more" and that he has noticed this week an "important" mobilization of his electorate. Party sources say they are very satisfied with the campaign and have exceeded the number of interveners and attorneys in April.

The president does not want to talk about numbers because, in any case, he said yesterday, he will win. And that must be the passport so that, this time, they will facilitate the investiture. Or through a sum of the left-wing bloc (United We Can, More Country and other forces such as the PNV) but without granting to the Ministry any Ministry or with the abstention of PP and Cs if this arithmetic is insufficient or requires the contest of the independentists . He has already announced that in 48 hours he will quote in La Moncloa Casado, Rivera and Iglesias to make a proposal.

Before that time comes, Sanchez put the finishing touch with two acts in Alcalá de Henares (Madrid) and Barcelona. «A strong government against the extreme right, moderated against extremisms». Or the PSOE or chaos. The same argument that Mariano Rajoy used in 2015 and 2016.

According to the criteria of The Trust Project

Know more

  • PSOE
  • Citizens
  • Vox
  • More Country
  • Pablo Iglesias
  • PP
  • Mariano Rajoy
  • PNV
  • Pedro Sanchez
  • United We Can
  • Albert rivera
  • General elections

Poll EL MUNDO-Sigma DosThe PSOE falls below 28-A, the PP is approaching and Vox is positioned as the third force

Elections This is how the parties face the electoral campaign against Pedro Sánchez

Poll EL MUNDO-Sigma DosEmpate between right and left at the start of the election campaign