“Role of the bridge between Iran and the USA”: why Paris and Tokyo thought about negotiations with Tehran on the JCPOA

Tokyo and Paris are ready to provide Tehran with a loan of $ 18.42 billion in exchange for the return of the Iranian side to compliance with the terms of the nuclear deal, the Japanese national daily Mainichi reported, citing unnamed Japanese officials. According to the publication, the Japanese government decided to join the French initiative in order to smooth out Iran’s possible discontent with the Japanese intention to send two ships of the naval self-defense forces to the Gulf of Oman to accompany the merchant ships. Such plans for the leadership of the island state were previously told by sources of the Kyodo agency in the government.

In addition, according to information from Mainity’s interlocutors, Tokyo is interested in establishing a dialogue between Iran and the United States on nuclear issues, which could be facilitated by credit support to Iran. It is assumed that the loan will be targeted - the funds will be intended for the purchase of food and medicine.

Paris plan

Recall, Iran withdrew part of its obligations under the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) in May 2019, exactly one year after the United States left the agreement and imposed economic sanctions against Iran. During this time, the European parties to the deal - Germany, France and the United Kingdom - could not develop an effective mechanism to circumvent these restrictions and maintain trade relations with Iran.

In July 2019, the official representative of the Iranian Foreign Ministry announced that the republic was beginning to enrich uranium at a level higher than that stipulated by the agreement. In early September, the President of the Islamic Republic, Hassan Rouhani, announced a new stage in reducing Iranian obligations under the JCPOA - Tehran refused to comply with restrictions on atomic research.

• Oil refinery in Iran.
• Reuters
• © Essam Al-Sudani

The destruction of the JCPOA, which began at the initiative of Washington, is not beneficial for the European parties to the agreement, who have long-standing trade ties with Iran. The conclusion of a “nuclear deal” in 2015 and the lifting of international sanctions from the Islamic Republic opened up opportunities for European business to restore economic relations with Iran.

So, in 2016, the European aircraft manufacturer Airbus signed a $ 25 billion contract with the Iranian side. In 2017, exports of goods from France to Iran reached € 1.5 billion, from Italy € 1.7 billion. In the same year French energy company Total signed a contract with the National Iranian Oil Company (NIOC) for the development of the South Pars oil and gas field in the amount of $ 1 billion. However, already in 2018, Total had to leave the project due to the sanctions introduced by Washington again.

French Foreign Minister Jean-Yves Le Drian said during a conference in Paris with a pool of the diplomatic press that the French idea now is to provide “a credit line secured by oil in exchange for, firstly, Iran’s return to compliance The JCPOA, secondly, the secure situation in the Persian Gulf, and thirdly, the launch of negotiations on regional security and the situation after 2025. "

At the same time, the plan assumes that US President Donald Trump will provide exceptions that allow certain countries to buy Iranian oil, despite the restoration of US sanctions against Iran, the French Foreign Minister said.

However, Tehran doubts that Paris will be able to obtain approval of these plans from the American administration. About this at the end of September.

“I think that, unfortunately, they (European partners. - RT ) are waiting for the go-ahead from Washington. And this will be a contradiction, because the United States adheres to a policy of maximum pressure, ”Iranian Foreign Minister Javad Zarif said in late September on NBC.

According to Sergei Fedorov, a leading researcher at the Institute of Europe of the Russian Academy of Sciences, the Paris initiative did not find support among other European capitals precisely because it contradicts Washington’s position.

“France can afford an independent political line, because it has always claimed a special role in the Western world. But countries such as Italy, Belgium, the Netherlands - they depend on the United States, which apply sanctions against everyone who maintains trade relations with Iran, ”the expert explained in a comment to RT.

Attempts by Paris to find ways to resolve the situation around Iran under the conditions of the sanctions pressure of the United States fit into the traditional outline of French politics, Fedorov said. According to the expert, France initially opposed the destruction of the JCPOA and is now trying to play the role of a mediator in the international arena.

"Show great independence"

Information that Tokyo made a proposal to join the Paris initiative appeared in early October. This was stated by the official representative of the Iranian Foreign Ministry Abbas Mousavi at a press conference, the Japanese central television and radio company NHK reported. According to the diplomat, with this step, Japan is trying to smooth out tensions between Iran and other states. However, official confirmation of this information by the Japanese authorities has not yet been received.

Iran is a long-standing trading partner of Japan, which often ranked third after Saudi Arabia and the UAE in terms of oil supplies to this country. In total, the Middle East countries account for about 88% of all Japanese oil imports. At the same time, Tokyo is resorting to a reduction in oil purchases from Russia - in January 2019, Russian oil supplies to Japan decreased by more than 40%.

According to experts, these changes are based on political motives - Tokyo’s territorial claims on the Kuril Islands and the firmness with which Moscow rejects them.

• Visit of Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe to Iran.
• Reuters
• © Official President website

As RT analysts previously told, Tokyo is looking for an opportunity to reorient oil purchases to other markets, even the United States is considered in this context. However, American oil and liquefied natural gas are too expensive for Japanese companies. For example, in 2017, Japan bought LNG from the United States at a price of $ 645 per ton, while a ton of LNG from Angola cost only $ 337.

Therefore, the expansion of Middle East energy imports remains the most preferred option for Tokyo. But the sanctions imposed by Washington against Iran impede Japan’s plans to increase supplies of Iranian oil, experts recall.

“Japan can support the initiative of Paris, because it is interested in obtaining Iranian oil and energy,” Sergey Fedorov explained.

It is no coincidence that in June of this year, the first visit of the Prime Minister of Japan, Shinzo Abe, to Tehran took place. Following talks with Iranian President Hassan Rouhani, he said that if a conflict erupts in the Middle East, the consequences will affect the whole world.

“Japan will do everything in its power to reduce tensions in the region,” Abe emphasized.

As Valery Kistanov, head of the Center for Japanese Studies at the Institute of the Far East of the Russian Academy of Sciences, explained in an interview with RT, Tokyo takes a very restrained position on Iranian issues and is in no hurry to support Washington’s course.

“Moreover, Japan is trying to play the role of a bridge between Iran and the United States,” Abe’s recent trip to Iran attests to this. Although the Japanese Prime Minister was not able to take on the role of mediator between Tehran and Washington, Tokyo is obviously taking a more neutral position on this issue than other G7 countries. Japan is very dependent on oil supplies, and Iran is a major supplier of hydrocarbons, ”Kistanov emphasized.

Washington's unpredictability

The proposal that Tehran can receive from Tokyo and Paris, if the information on the loan transaction project is finally confirmed, will be interesting for the Iranian side, said orientalist Karine Gevorgyan.

“Iran needs this line of credit to pay for imports. If the situation does not break the deadlock, Iran will be forced to continue to enrich uranium and conduct nuclear research. In my opinion, Tehran’s statements about withdrawing from the deal are more of a political game, because, by and large, the Iranians still continue to abide by the agreement, the practical deviations are very insignificant. But sanctions harm the Iranian economy, ”the expert noted in a commentary on RT.

At the same time, experts are not ready to give an accurate forecast regarding the possible reaction of the United States to the idea of ​​Paris to "exchange" Tehran’s return to the implementation of the JCPOA for a loan, as well as Tokyo's possible joining this initiative.

According to Valery Kistanov, most likely, this idea will not receive the approval of the American administration.

“But the Japanese government can do this, because Japan not only wants to act as a mediator, but also to show greater independence in the field of foreign policy,” the expert said.

According to Karine Gevorgyan, Washington would like to sit at the negotiating table with Iran without preconditions. However, Tehran refuses this format of negotiations, insisting on a meeting with all countries participating in the JCPOA.

“The Iranians do not want to meet directly with the Americans, because Tehran is afraid in this case of reputational losses both domestically and in the international arena. As for the Paris initiative, it is still impossible to predict what Donald Trump will do in this case, ”the expert summed up.