The reasons for the “cycle of protests” in the Arab region are abundant

One of the most prominent internal issues raised in some Arab countries is the escalation of popular protests and factional strikes, which reflect the widespread dissatisfaction with the performance of state institutions and the accumulation of structural crises, and the intensification of contradictions between the escalating societal demands and the limited absorptive capacities of these institutions, in the midst of resource allocation crises and distribution of benefits. Social policy and the depletion of the public budget, as well as demanding fundamental political reforms, including preventing the return of symbols of previous regimes, and reducing the interference of external parties in internal affairs

«Wooden houses»

This movement has extended to several countries in various geographic regions, such as Algeria, Tunisia, Lebanon, Jordan and Iraq, reflecting a seemingly recurring regional phenomenon, such as the effects of domino theory, permeability, “snowball” or “wooden houses”. The proliferation of protests in a country may lead, for the most part, to the repercussions of the neighboring countries and even neighboring countries, and suddenly without carrying the precursors even for some countries that were classified in the literature of comparative Arab regimes as "sleepy homelands" .

Egyptian President Abdel Fattah al-Sisi made the same statement at a joint press conference with his Cypriot counterpart Nicos Anastasiades and Greek Prime Minister Kyriakos Mitsotakis in Cairo on October 8, 2019.``The turmoil in the Middle East is a threat to opportunities, '' he said. We have the right to a safe life, as well as to prevent them from catching up with progress and development, creating new crises in their societies, and exporting their consequences outside the region. ”

Here, it should be noted that the interactions of 2019, both in the beginning or end, witnessed protests led to the overthrow of the regime's leadership in Sudan and Algeria, and large demonstrations in the Iraqi capital Baghdad and cities of the south, which featured the features of the 2011 transformations, after raising the slogan «overthrow the regime», Mobilizing social networking sites, cutting off the Internet, talking about a conspiracy and decision to ban curfews, re-spreading the "masked", invoking the third-party novel (anonymous snipers), the fall of the dead, scenes of chaos, waving the option of state or non-state, as well as frequent strikes in Tunisia and Lebanon And Jordan, for various reasons.

Driving motors

The main drivers of protests and strikes in some Arab countries during the last third of 2019 can be addressed as follows:

1- Preventing the return of symbols of previous systems

The demands of the protest forces aimed to overthrow the structures of the political system in Iraq, and this is the first time that some protesters demand the overthrow of the regime, because they feel, in some directions, the futility of the reform attempts advocated by the demonstrations during the past years, and they believe that the time has come for a radical change In the regime that has existed since the fall of Saddam Hussein in 2003.

The protesters demanded not to allow the return of symbols of Saddam Hussein's regime as well, and called the leaders of the demonstrations to «early elections for the legislative institution, to prohibit the participation of figures from political parties that participated in the rule of Iraq from Saddam's regime to the system of blocks, to allow loyal independents to lift Iraq from "His political, economic and cultural situation is deteriorating."

The Algerian movement has continued since February 12, until the demonstration on Friday 34 in his demand that the President not to hold the presidential elections as scheduled on December 12, because it represents - from the point of view of the demonstrators - a trick aimed at prolonging the survival of the Bouteflika regime, as well as Fear of one of its symbols coming to power over the next five years. Some of the most likely candidates for the presidency in the upcoming elections are: former prime ministers: Abdelmajid Teboun and Ali Benflis, and some institutions may bet on one of them (the candidate of power), according to some analyzes.

Interventions by external parties

Some of the protests witnessed by a number of countries objected to the interference of some external parties in internal affairs, as is the case with regard to the Iranian role in Iraq, especially after Tehran pressed for changes in the leaders of the Iraqi military establishment, which played a pivotal role in defeating the cadres and leaders of «ISIS »From the cities he was settling in, hints emerged for an Iranian role in removing General Abdulwahab al-Saadi, to the Department of Imam in the Ministry of Defense.

Therefore, many Twitter accounts posted photos of the burning of the Iranian flag in Iraqi protests. On the contrary, the Iranian leader, Ali Khamenei, attacked Iraqi demonstrators on October 7, describing their demonstrations as "conspiracy" by "enemies trying to drive a wedge between Tehran and Baghdad," an extension of accusations by some Iranian officials, to the United States and regional powers. Allied to stand behind the turmoil in Iraq.

3- Deterioration of economic conditions

The living conditions are a determining factor for the protest forces in many Arab countries, where providing jobs and solving the problem of unemployment, especially among the Iraqi youth, was one of the engines of the outbreak of protests in Baghdad and the southern governorates, where the demands of youth included the establishment of the National Youth Bank to support and lend them in the establishment of companies. Small, lending them in matters of marriage, health and complete education ».

Lebanon is facing a severe financial dilemma, represented in the high exchange rate of the dollar against the national currency (lira), as traders buy materials in dollars and sell them to the consumer in lira, which explains the growing wave of prosecutions of a number of cashiers, even some writings point to the features of a crisis in the import of medicines, This explains the outbreak of strikes in a number of cities. However, the government has finally confirmed that measures to stabilize the lira exchange rate are under way.

4. Decline in public services

One of the main demands of the protests, which swept the southern Iraqi provinces, was the demand for basic services and the repair of infrastructure, especially those related to drinking water and electricity, which called on the Supreme Shiite authority, Ali al-Sistani, on 4 October, to hold the government, parliament and the judiciary primary responsibility in Lack of solutions to crises that have accumulated for more than a decade. Demonstrators' demands included the abolition of provincial councils and the offices of general inspectors, and the granting of broader powers to governors and judges in administration and control.

The statement of the leaders of the Iraqi demonstrations stressed the importance of initiating «the provision of health insurance for all Iraqis, and increase financial, technical and administrative support to hospitals and health centers and clinics, with a commitment to provide medicines and tests and the possibilities of all surgical operations». Elsewhere, the statement called for "starting the national school construction project, which includes the construction of 25,000 schools for four years, and the rehabilitation of existing schools, taking care to start a program to develop teaching and educational staff." This applies to strikes and demonstrations in some peripheral areas of Tunisia.

Strengthening financial and administrative control

The fight against corruption is a major demand in the arena of protest in a number of Arab countries, where the Iraqi protest forces demanded to "refer all files of corruption and corrupt to the judiciary," and "the formation of a committee to return public money at home and abroad, and the return of Iraqi property and antiquities, and review the property of the State and the Sunni endowment. And stop the Shiite and remove abuses on public property ». In a statement to Al-Arabiya TV on October 6, the speaker of the House of Representatives, Mohammed al-Halbousi, called for putting "big whales" of corrupt prisoners in prisons and vowed to join the protesters unless their demands were met.

6. Return of categorical claims

The Jordanian teachers 'strike continued for five weeks before the directorates of education in conjunction with the start of the school year, especially after the Ministry of Education refused to approve the teachers' allowance (50%) and justified its rejection of the lack of financial allocations, in light of the continuing budget deficit for the last third of the fiscal year. Some teachers were arrested by the security services and then released. This represented a record as the longest union strike in the country, after some 100,000 teachers stopped teaching, affecting 1.5 million students.

On 5 October, the government apologized to the striking teachers, especially since the union's demands were to recognize and apologize. Prime Minister Omar Razzaz said: “The dignity of the teacher is of our dignity, and of his prestige is our prestige. "The government regrets any event that detracts from the dignity of teachers, and is committed to completing the investigation and taking its findings and awaiting the results of the verification report of the National Center for Human Rights, to take appropriate action."

In the past few days, Lebanon has witnessed an open strike by the owners of petrol stations, joined by the owners of ovens and bakeries, due to the worsening fuel crisis. A number of heads and representatives of party and independent lists in Kairouan, Tunisia, also carried out a protest in the headquarters of the Subsidiary Body for Elections, demanding the right of access to information to see all the records of the count, against the background of inconsistencies regarding the results of the legislative elections, and the difference in the number of votes authorized by the Electoral Commission In this context, the head of the list of the Free Constitutional Party, Samir al-Haddad, told the Tunisian newspaper «Sunrise» on 9 October, saying: «There is manipulation and suspicions amount to crimes».

Cool protests

There is a divergence in the demands raised by the protesting forces in the Arab countries, in addition to the absence of leadership of these forces and movements, which loses the reason behind them, there is no representation in the negotiations with the government, in addition to the absence of coordination committees (coordination) among them at the level of the provinces or regions , In a way that governments are betting on "cooling" or declining the momentum of the protests, which has already happened for some, especially in light of its confinement to specific geographical areas, as expressed by the Iraqi situation, which did not witness protests in the north and west, especially the areas devastated by the war Against ISIS over the past few years Several years ago, this was in line with the government of Adel Abdul Mahdi's decisions to contain the anger of the protest forces, such as the adoption of unemployment benefit for 150 thousand people, and the provision of housing units for low-income, and the establishment of marketing complexes in commercial areas in some governorates, and granting the families of the dead of the protests privileges of martyrs.

On the other hand, some Arab governments suffer from the accumulations inherited from previous governments, which gives them the pretext of giving the forces of protest and demonstration a window of opportunity to correct some situations, but they adopt a partial response and temporary solutions. Ultimately, the structural aspects of the protests - in Arab countries - remain viable at any moment again, as a result of the availability of ignition fuel.

Some of the protests, which witnessed a number of countries, represented an objection to the interference of some external parties in the internal affairs, as is the case with the Iranian role in Iraq, especially after Tehran pressed for changes in the leaders of the Iraqi military establishment.