New York (AFP)

Assuring that the Chinese had promised to buy between $ 40 billion and $ 50 billion worth of agricultural products, Donald Trump has already encouraged American farmers to prepare for a burst of orders. But industry players expect more details before getting excited.

Just after the announcement of a trade agreement in principle between the first two world economic powers Friday, the tenant of the White House even, in the tone of joke, recommended farmers "to buy more land and more big tractors ".

Contacted by AFP Monday, the country's largest agricultural union, the Farm Bureau, however, did not wish to speak until it had more concrete information on the agreement mentioned by the US president.

"While we are happy to see a relaxation in this endless trade war, the tangible benefits for American farm families and ranchers are not yet clear," commented the president of the United States. National Farmers Union Union, Roger Johnson.

In particular, "over what period would the $ 50 billion in agricultural purchases, double the peak of our annual agricultural exports to China, take place?", He asked in a statement Friday evening.

At the peak of exports in 2012 and 2013, when a drought in the US had pushed agricultural commodity prices to record highs, exports to China had climbed to $ 26 billion.

China still imported $ 19.5 billion worth of US agricultural products in 2017, down to just over $ 9 billion in 2018 after Beijing imposed heavy import taxes in retaliation for similar US measures. .

- Patience dulls -

"Farmers in Wisconsin, Minnesota, Texas and elsewhere are still getting up every morning with the prospect of double-digit taxes imposed by one of the largest markets in the United States," said Brian Kuehl on Friday. responsible for organizing "Farmers for Free Trade", in a statement.

The Trump administration also had to release $ 28 billion in federal aid to mitigate the losses of farmers affected by the new customs barriers.

"Since the beginning of the trade war, farmers have been promised that their patience will be rewarded, which is not yet the case," he lamented.

At the Chicago Stock Exchange, where brokers are betting on the evolution of prices of agricultural products, the market was far from euphoric.

Soybean prices, for example, were up by around 0.4% around 1630 GMT.

US oilseed producers, however, would be the first to benefit from a revival of Chinese orders.

China still imported $ 12 billion worth of soybeans in 2017, accounting for about 57 percent of US soybean exports. This amount fell to $ 3 billion in 2018 after the new taxes and an epidemic of African swine fever that decimated Chinese livestock.

"The quiet reaction of the market probably reflects a certain skepticism, the feeling that even if the announcement of Donald Trump materialized, it would only change the flow of trade" between the various countries, says Bill Nelson of the cabinet Doane Advisory Services.

China has indeed massively turned to Brazil and Argentina to supply soy, pushing other buyers like Mexico or European Union countries to turn to the United States.

"We can not suddenly reveal $ 20 billion in additional demand," says the specialist. "We should turn around all these exchanges again".

To compensate for the losses due to the swine fever epidemic, the Chinese have already greatly increased their hog orders in recent weeks.

They also ordered about 3.7 million tonnes of soy between early September and early October.

"It may sound awesome to the uninitiated, but it's a very small amount compared to what we could have three or four years ago," says Nelson.

© 2019 AFP