Tunisia's legislative elections on Sunday did not emerge as a clear majority to form a government, predicting tough negotiations that began even before the official preliminary results were announced on Wednesday and before the second round of presidential elections next Sunday.
In this report, we review the Tunisian political scene following the legislative elections in four questions:
1. Why did the boycott rate soar?
The rate of non-voting was 58.6%, which is almost double that in the 2014 legislative elections, although the ongoing polls fueled street and television debates, which means that abstinence reflected not only indifference but also a penalty for competing parties and the political show, According to Agence France-Presse.
"Two months ago, we were talking about the elections, and we expected a better turnout," said the head of the Independent High Electoral Commission, Nabil Bafon.
During the first municipal elections after the 2011 revolution held in May 2018, the turnout was 66.3%.
The rate of abstention in the first round of the presidential elections on September 15 last year reached 51%.
Salim Kharrat, of the Compass Observatory, said that the high rate of abstinence "is also linked to the poor performance of the outgoing People's Assembly," which saw a high absence of sessions, party tourism and lack of initiative or contact with constituencies.
Kharrat explained that "73% of Tunisians do not trust the parliament," while the 2014 constitution made him the center of power.
2- Who is the winner?
According to the Tunisian Emroud and Sigma polls, Ennahda won the largest number of seats in the new parliament (40 out of 217), followed by the "Heart of Tunisia" party led by presidential candidate Nabil Karoui (33 to 35 seats).
A third poll by the Targa Council gave 46 seats to Ennahda and 35 to the heart of Tunisia, while both parties confirmed that they were the winner without providing figures. Official preliminary results are due on Wednesday, but according to these surveys, neither party has exceeded 20% of the vote.
In terms of seats, these announced results represent barely a third of the number required to obtain an absolute majority in parliament (109 deputies).
Even if Ennahda dissolved in the first place, it lost between 20 and 30 seats compared to the outgoing parliament. Whoever wins, it will be difficult for him to gather the necessary majority to form a government.
3. What are the following stages?
A week after the final results are announced, the dissolved party is first tasked with forming a government within a maximum of two months, then the formation is presented to parliament for confidence.
In the event of failure to gather a majority, the president of the republic, who will be elected on October 13, could propose a prime minister who would be given two months to form a government.
If paralysis persists, the president has the "possibility of dissolving parliament" and calling for new legislative elections, according to the constitution.
4. What are the implications for the presidential elections?
Despite the notable entry into parliament of the Heart of Tunisia, which was founded less than six months ago, it apparently failed to achieve its goal of being at the forefront, which would have allowed a significant margin of movement for its president and candidate for the second round of presidential elections Nabil Karoui.
It is clear that Ennahda has mobilized its bases by announcing the support of the other candidate for the second round of the presidency, constitutional law professor Qais Said, who is seen as a conservative on social issues, and polls give him greater chances of winning the post of president.
It seems that the winners of the legislative elections, as in the last municipal elections, are independent, and this provides further evidence of the depth of the desire for change, which may serve the interest of Qais Said, far from the traditional Tunisian political elite.