“The resource of failures is exhausted”: why the president of Georgia started talking about a dialogue with Moscow

Tbilisi should have a dialogue with Moscow, Georgian President Salome Zurabishvili said, commenting on the talks between the foreign ministers of the two countries - David Zalkaliani and Sergey Lavrov, held on September 26 "on the sidelines" of the 74th session of the UN General Assembly.

“When a country has problems such as occupied territories, there are two ways: the first is the military, which we abandoned, and the second is the path of diplomacy and negotiations,” the politician emphasized.

According to Zurabishvili, "there is no Russophobia in Georgia, it has never been."

Recall that the meeting between Lavrov and Zalkaliani was mediated by representatives of Switzerland. These are the first negotiations of this level between Georgia and Russia since 2008, when the countries entered into a military conflict. In the same year, Tbilisi broke off diplomatic relations with Moscow in response to the recognition of the independence of Abkhazia and South Ossetia, which Georgia ranks among its territories.

• Salome Zurabishvili
• Reuters
• © Carlo Allegri

Over the years, contacts between states were maintained only through meetings of diplomats in third countries. The role of mediator between Georgia and Russia was assumed by Switzerland.

Lavrov and Zalkaliani discussed current issues on the bilateral agenda, and also exchanged views on regional security.

According to experts, Georgia is interested in normalizing relations with Russia. The cooling of the already difficult relations provoked by Georgian nationalists this summer led to very large losses for Tbilisi.

“It is clear that sooner or later material motives should have outweighed the other ambitions,” Kirill Koktysh, assistant professor of political theory at MGIMO, explained in an interview with RT.

According to Dmitry Abzalov, president of the Center for Strategic Communications, Zurabishvili has relied on a multi-vector policy from the very beginning, including relations with Moscow.

“Of course, for her and for the party“ Georgian Dream - Democratic Georgia ”(the ruling party, founded by businessman Bidzina Ivanishvili. - RT ), it would just be strange to take the position of Mikheil Saakashvili and break ties with Russia. Therefore, the resumption of dialogue is a natural event, ”the expert explained in a comment to RT.

“Sane politicians”

On September 26, in an interview with Kommersant, Lavrov called for the restoration of air traffic between the countries, interrupted after a wave of anti-Russian demonstrations swept through Tbilisi in the summer. Such a step would be correct after "the majority of the Georgian population realized the counterproductive provocative nature of the trick that occurred in the Georgian parliament," the minister said.

Lavrov also said that at that time the countries were even preparing to abolish visas, the decision was almost ready, but the incident “threw the whole process back”.

• Sergey Lavrov and David Zalkaliani
• © RIA Novosti / Reuters

“Sane politicians have appeared and continue to gain positions in Georgia. Let's see how things go, ”the minister said.

The meeting of the Foreign Ministers in New York was positively assessed by the Georgian State Minister for Reconciliation and Civil Equality Ketevan Tsikhelashvili. She called this dialogue a “sure step.”

For her part, Deputy Prime Minister and Minister of Justice of Georgia Thea Tsulukiani said that the negotiations of foreign ministers have become one of the most important international meetings in recent years.

The first talks in a decade between the Georgian and Russian foreign ministers took place just a few months after a wave of anti-Russian protests by the Georgian opposition.

Recall that the appearance of the Russian deputy Sergei Gavrilov at the session of the Inter-Parliamentary Assembly of Orthodoxy in Tbilisi was a formal reason for the protests. Georgian nationalists were outraged by the fact that the delegate sat in the chair, which is usually occupied by the speaker of the country's parliament. According to experts, the opposition was preparing in advance for anti-Russian actions, and claims to Gavrilov were just an excuse.

Nevertheless, the opposition began daily to withdraw supporters to the streets of Tbilisi, and protests continued even after the Russian delegation left the country. Demonstrators accused the Georgian Dream party of “betraying” national interests and surrendering positions to Russia.

Saakashvili’s footprint

In response to the actions of Georgian radicals, Moscow has banned Russian airlines from flying to Georgia. As Lavrov stated then, Tbilisi became an example of the action of “geopolitical engineering”.

Then, experts drew attention to the fact that just a few days before the start of the mass protests in Georgia, the senior director of the J. Biden Center for Global Engagement at the University of Pennsylvania, Michael Carpenter, who previously served as the Pentagon’s assistant to Russia, Ukraine and Eurasia, visited Georgia. Following the visit, the political strategist wrote on Twitter that he doubts that the Georgian government understands what the country faces "open door policy with Russia."

The Georgian Dream intends to adhere to this course, which replaced the United National Movement (UNM) Saakashvili in the 2012 elections and still remains in power.

• Protests in Tbilisi in the summer of 2019
• Reuters
• © Irakli Gedenidze

According to analysts, the ruling party considers its goal to integrate the country into the EU and NATO, just like the Und. But, unlike nationalists, the “Georgian Dream” I am committed to a dialogue with Russia, which remains one of the key trade partners for the Georgian economy, despite all the military and political crises of recent decades.

For his part, Saakashvili, who provoked a military conflict with Russia at the time, is not abandoning attempts to return to power in Georgia, and is also trying with all his might to undermine the fragile dialogue between Moscow and Tbilisi. It was his supporters who were at the core of the forces that fomented anti-Russian protests in the summer of 2019, experts say.

Amid negotiations between the Russian and Georgian Foreign Ministers, Saakashvili issued a statement accusing the Kremlin of allegedly planning to recreate the USSR by 2024, including Armenia, Georgia, Belarus, Moldova and part of Ukraine. In Moscow, the former Georgian president refuted these suspicions, saying that the Russian leadership did not have such plans.

“You don’t have to wait for blooming”

It should be noted that the meeting between Zalkaliani and Lavrov was not the first recent event that sharply contradicted the requirements of Saakashvili’s supporters. In early September, former Interior Minister Georgy Gakharia became the Prime Minister of Georgia - it was his opposition who sought his resignations in the summer. Nationalists accused him of overly violent dispersal of demonstrations.

According to experts, the radicals seriously lost their positions after a surge in activity in June-July this year.

• Tourists on excursions in Tbilisi
• RIA News
• © Levan Avlabreli

“It is easy to notice that the anti-Russian actions that flared up in the summer in Georgia stalled. This happened for many reasons, not least because of the heavy losses that the Georgian tourism sector suffered, because the air traffic was stopped at the height of the tourist season, ”said Dmitry Abzalov.

In his opinion, the situation has stabilized, and the Georgian leadership was clearly interested in continuing the dialogue with Moscow. The ruling party in Georgia will try to take advantage of the political lull in order to build more profitable external relations, Abzalov said.

“Everyone understands perfectly well that the situation with NATO is in limbo, there are no prerequisites for Georgia to join the bloc in the foreseeable future, as well as in the EU. Tbilisi has many issues of regional importance that should be discussed with Moscow, ”Abzalov emphasized.

The expert notes that the radical agenda is not very in demand today, the United States is busy with internal political issues, and centrifugal flows are observed in the EU.

“You don’t have to wait for the flourishing of Russian-Georgian relations, but the policy is becoming more rational, this is a fact,” the expert added.

A similar point of view is shared by Kirill Koktysh. In his opinion, it is quite possible that Georgia will be able to restore air links with Russia in the foreseeable future. Relations between the Georgian and Russian societies have been preserved; they are longer-term than the political situation.

“The resource of failures in Russian-Georgian relations has been exhausted, so if you maintain the current course, you can count on a slow improvement in relations, although breakouts, of course, should not be expected,” the expert summed up.