Reading Greta's speech, September 25, 21:21

The speech of one high school student at the age of 16 is spreading throughout the world.

A young man who has attracted attention has spoken to the phrase “Please listen to the voices of scientists”.

I listened to experts and read the powerful speech. (Reporter, Network Press Department Yoshiyuki Takahashi)

Meeting with temperature difference

This time, the United Nations Summit for Global Warming Countermeasures highlights the “temperature differences between countries”.

77 countries around the world promise to achieve zero emissions of greenhouse gases by 2050, while the major emitters of greenhouse gases, such as the US, China, and India, promise to achieve zero did not do it.

Many countries, such as Japan, did not announce concrete measures at the summit.

I'm heading for extinction ...

Attention was paid to such a speech by a 16-year-old Swedish high school student, Greta Thunberg, in front of representatives from each country.

“While we are going extinct, you can only talk about money or the fairy tale of everlasting economic growth.”

“You hear our voice, say you understand the urgency. If you really understand this situation and don't take action, you believe in wickedness. can not"

He criticized with a strong tone and demanded immediate countermeasures.

Under “Science”

Greta speaks about global warming around the world.

The words that come up repeatedly in such places are “Science” such as “Please listen to the voice of“ scientists ”” and “We are united under“ science ””.

A similar word appears in this speech. I listened to experts to understand what the strong word was based on and read the speech.

The facts that science shows for over 30 years are clear

First, here is the next word that appears in the beginning of this speech.

“For over 30 years the facts that science shows are very clear, yet you keep an eye on the facts and you don't even see the necessary policies and solutions ...”

What does "the fact that science shows from more than 30 years ago" mean?

“I think that this is the fact that global warming is progressing with the greenhouse gases.”

That is what Fumio Hasebe, a specially appointed professor at the Hokkaido University School of Global Environmental Sciences.

Prof. Hasebe has been working for many years on research on the destruction of the ozone layer around the earth, which is greatly involved in climate formation.

“From this time on, greenhouse gases have been warming, and it has become the norm in the scientific world. I think Greta probably has said this.” (Professor Hasebe)

If you look at it, it's true that 30 years ago, the United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) was established.

In 1990, 29 years ago, the IPCC prepared a “first evaluation report” for the first time.

Looking at the outline of the reports published on the homepages of the Ministry of the Environment, etc., it is said that "the report that evaluates the research results contributed by the world's leading researchers and summarizes the results" "Content" was written as follows.

▼ Emissions associated with human activities have steadily increased the concentration of greenhouse gases (carbon dioxide, methane, etc.) in the atmosphere, thus increasing the global greenhouse effect.
▼ (If no special measures are taken) By the end of the 21st century, the average sea level of the earth is expected to rise from 35 centimeters to 65 centimeters.

Greda seems to refer to the reports and movements at that time as “the facts that science has shown for over 30 years”.

On the other hand, “IPCC's knowledge about climate change is not sufficient, and there are many uncertainties in its forecast, centering on the timing, scale, and regional pattern of climate change.” "It is unlikely that it will be possible to detect this clearly by observation within and beyond the next 10 years", and there was a statement indicating that research at that time was not sufficiently advanced.

The chance is only 50%

The other is, “There is a general idea of ​​halving (greenhouse gas) emissions over the next 10 years. However, it is only 50% likely to reduce the global temperature rise to 1.5 degrees or less. There is also the word "No".

After this, strong words like "50% risk is unacceptable" "You are betraying us, but young people are beginning to notice your betrayal" are coming out one after another. is.

The Ministry of the Environment Global Environment Bureau ...

This time, I asked the Ministry of the Environment's Global Environment Bureau's "Decarbonization Innovation Research Laboratory".

“It seems that there is a part corresponding to the“ 1.5 degree special report ”adopted at the IPCC General Assembly last October.”

In this special report

● If it keeps the current pace, it is predicted that it will rise 1.5 degrees from 2030 to 2052 (compared to the temperature in the latter half of the 19th century that was pre-industrial).

And
● In order to limit the rise in climate to 1.5 degrees, it is necessary to reduce carbon dioxide emissions by approximately 45% by 2030 compared to the 2010 level, and to achieve almost “net zero” by around 2050. There is.

“Greta ’s statement,“ General thinking of halving emissions over the next 10 years, ”falls under“ to reduce carbon dioxide emissions by about 45% by 2030 ”. Is n’t it? ”

Even if it is net zero

What about Greda-san, “there is only a 50% chance that the global temperature rise will be kept within 1.5 degrees”?

“In the report, in order to keep global warming within 1.5 degrees, the amount of carbon dioxide that can be emitted in the world will be about 580 gigatons in the future.”

“And the remaining 580 gigatons will be discharged, and even if the amount of emissions is almost“ net zero ”by 2050, the probability of being held within 1.5 degrees is over 50%. "I think there is only 50%" "(person in charge)

Your betrayal

From the expert's opinion, Mr. Greda appealed to the voices of science and scientists that the crisis would come, based on past IPCC reports, etc. And it seems.

The IPCC report, which initially stated that the research that supported it was not sufficiently advanced, also stated in the 5th assessment report that “the human influence may have been the dominant effect of global warming. It ’s very high ”.

In the end of the speech, Mr. Greda says, "You are betraying us. But young people are starting to notice your betrayal."

I disregarded the warning that science has shown many times, and I was not allowed to pass the notes on to the next generation.