In search of a coalition: can Israel overcome the domestic political crisis after the parliamentary elections

In Israel, September 17 held early elections to the Knesset, the turnout was 69.4%. The official results of the vote will be announced no later than September 25, but preliminary data are known now: not one of the leading parties is able to form a parliamentary majority.

According to the interim results obtained after the calculation of 90% of the votes, the opposition bloc Kahol-Lavan with a minimal advantage is ahead of the ruling Likud party: they receive 32 and 31 seats respectively. They are followed by the “United Arab List”, claiming 13 places. Our Home Israel and Shas parties can get 9 seats in parliament. According to the “12th channel” of Israeli television, right-wing parties may have 55 seats in total, and left-wing centrist - 56. There are 120 seats in the country's parliament.

After the official announcement of the election results, the Israeli president will instruct the leader of one of the parties to form a cabinet. At the same time, the new government will have to approve the Knesset: this will require a simple majority of the votes of the deputies.

The current Prime Minister of Israel, the leader of the Likud party, Benjamin Netanyahu, has already announced that in the coming days he will begin negotiations on the establishment of a “strong Zionist government”. He said this, speaking at the headquarters of his party.

According to Netanyahu, the country needs “a strong, stable and Zionist government committed to the idea of ​​Israel as a nation-state of the Jewish people ".

“All Likud party partners seek to join forces to create a strong government and prevent the formation of a dangerous anti-Zionist government,” Netanyahu told the audience. “There can not be and will not be a government in Israel based on anti-Zionist and Arab parties.”

He also noted that the country is now experiencing a "historical and turning point."

• Benjamin Netanyahu speaks to supporters at the Likud party headquarters
• © Ronen Zvulun / Reuters

The leader of the centrist bloc of Kahol-Lavan parties, Beni Ganz, called on his supporters to call for the creation of a government of national unity.

“From this night we begin to create on a broad basis a government of national unity. I urge politicians and rivals from all political forces to work together, ”TASS quoted him as saying.

According to Ganz, Israel has great security problems, but no less than the country is threatened by disagreements and polarization within Israeli society. In his opinion, Kahol-Lavan is able to find consensus for Israeli citizens: the party has already begun negotiations with a number of politicians. Consultations with the leader of the Our Home Israel party Avigdor Lieberman are also possible.

Society is polarized

Israel has a low entry barrier to parliamentary elections - only 3.25%, therefore a large number of political associations are always represented in it. Most often, not a single party succeeds in achieving a decisive advantage: in order to form a government, coalitions must be concluded.

Recently, however, it has become increasingly difficult for Israeli politicians to do so. So, after the elections held in April 2019, which were also early, Netanyahu failed to conclude an alliance with other political associations. At the same time, Likud and Kahol-Lavan then received about the same number of votes as in the current vote.

As now, Netanyahu and Ganz announced that time they were ready to form a ruling coalition. By decision of President Reuven Rivlin, these powers were delegated to Benjamin Netanyahu. However, he never managed to find partners to create a ruling coalition. As a result, at the end of May the Knesset was forced to vote for self-dissolution.

These events were preceded by a government crisis in the fall of 2018, when the Our Home Israel Party left the ruling coalition. Its leader, Avigdor Lieberman, then resigned as Israeli Defense Minister in protest against the ceasefire between Tel Aviv and the Palestinian Hamas group after several days of armed escalation. Lieberman regarded this decision of the Cabinet of Ministers as "surrender to terror" and called for tougher measures against the Palestinian group.

• The Knesset
• © Ronen Zvulun / Reuters

However, Netanyahu and his Likud party also belong to the “hawks” of Israeli politics who advocate an expansionist course. On the eve of the election, representatives of this political force made rather radical statements. So, a few days before the September vote, Netanyahu said that if he wins, he will extend Israeli sovereignty to parts of the West Bank in the Jordan Valley and the northern tip of the Dead Sea.

The Kahol-Lavan block is a more moderate force, said Tatyana Nosenko, a leading researcher at the Israel and Jewish Community Studies Department of the Institute of Oriental Studies of the Russian Academy of Sciences.

“The Kakhol-Lavan party has a more moderate position, which considers it possible to move along the path of creating and implementing the principle of two states. In the Likud party, there are different directions on this issue, but the most tough and nationalist one, which was supported by Netanyahu, who advocates the annexation of these territories, prevailed, ”the expert noted in a commentary to RT.

At the same time, the publicist Israel Shamir has a different opinion. According to him, there are not so many contradictions between the Likud bloc and the Kakhol-Lavan bloc, despite their mutual criticism. The main thing that separates them, the political scientist believes, is the figure of Netanyahu, against whom the opposition is sharply opposed.

“Beni Ganz has repeatedly stated that if Netanyahu leaves, the two leading parties will undoubtedly unite and go together,” Shamir told RT.

In turn, Nosenko pointed out that Netanyahu is opposed in his own party.

“The party has long been dissatisfied with Netanyahu’s sole leadership,” the analyst said.

Any combinations are possible.

Lieberman, commenting on the data of the exit polls, said that the only acceptable option could be the formation of a broad coalition, which would include Likud, the opposition centrists from Kakhol-Lavan and his own party.

“There is only one option: a broad government, consisting of the parties“ Our Home Israel, ”“ Likud ”and“ Kahol-Lavan, ”the RIA Novosti politician quotes.

However, experts do not exclude any political combinations. According to Shamir, even an option is possible in which the two leading parties will independently agree on a coalition, and the party of Liberman will be outside the government.

“Politicians will try to avoid new early elections and will make every effort to create a strong coalition. But if Likud and Kahol-Lavan agree on an alliance, they will no longer need Liberman’s party, most will be achieved without his party’s participation, ”the expert is sure.

In turn, Nosenko pointed out that Netanyahu might try to find allies among the elected Knesset deputies from other parties. But if nothing comes of this, then he will have to negotiate with Ganz. At the same time, it is up to President Reuven Rivlin to determine which of the parties to the parliament has the best chance of forming a coalition.

“The decisive word belongs to the president, who determines who to entrust the formation of the Cabinet, based on what prospects each party has for creating a coalition. It is likely that a situation will arise when the government will have to create opposing parties. This has already happened in the history of Israel, ”the expert concluded.