Paris (AFP)
The world must accelerate its preparation for the "inevitable" consequences of climate change, which also presents economic opportunities, argues an international commission in a report released Tuesday.
"Adapt now", argues the study of the "Global Commission on Adaptation", created in 2018 at the initiative of the Netherlands, particularly exposed to the consequences of climate change, a part of the territory lying below sea level, joined by 19 other countries.
It is led by former UN Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon, Bill Gates, founder of Microsoft and climate activist, and Kristalina Georgieva, who is expected to become the IMF's patron.
"A well-conducted adaptation can bring better growth and development (...) save lives, protect nature and create opportunities", with a "triple dividend" made of avoided losses, economic benefits (reduced risks, better productivity, innovation) and social and environmental benefits, says the report.
The text lists five areas - advanced warning systems, adaptation of infrastructure, agricultural improvements, protection of mangroves, protection of water resources - in which investment of 1.800 billion would generate "net profits of 7.1 trillion".
"Actions to slow climate change are promising, but not enough, and we need to invest in a massive effort to adapt to now inevitable conditions: rising temperatures, rising sea levels, stronger storms, more unpredictable rainfall," the report says.
And if the consequences are global, the most affected populations are the poorest, warns the text.
According to this report, without adaptation the increase in agricultural yields could fall by 30% by 2050, affecting mainly small farmers.
The number of people lacking water at least a month in the year could rise from 3.6 billion today to more than 5 billion in 2050, rising water levels cost 1,000 billion a year, and more than 100 millions of people dipping below the poverty line in developing countries by 2030.
Referring to the recent hurricane Dorian, which devastated the Bahamas in particular, Mr. Ban noted in a conference call that the proliferation of such phenomena could lead to "a sense of inevitability and helplessness."
But "it's just not true" and strengthening adaptation "makes sense economically", can "save lives, protect our communities (...) and build a better future".
"Adaptation is not an alternative to redoubled efforts against climate change, but an essential complement," argues the report, arguing that without adaptation measures we expose ourselves to "a huge economic and human toll".
"Even if our ambitions are reached (warming limited to + 2 ° C), which we are not doing, the already warmed up will inevitably have impacts," said AFP Dominic Molloy, one of authors of the report, while the world at + 1 ° C compared to the pre-industrial era is already experiencing storms, heat waves or droughts.
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