ANALYSIS: "Perhaps today's message is a first step towards a more compromising China"

"Too little too late" was at the heart of the comments from leading activists. Both activist Joshua Wong and the pro-democracy bloc in parliament made statements following Carrie Lamb's message. But their comments can be interpreted as a way to improve their negotiating position.

In fact, the message is a lot, at the last moment.

When Carrie Lam suddenly left the message that the extradition law is now formally withdrawn, it meant a great success for the protest movement. In addition to being the first time Beijing backs, it also constitutes a violation of a frightening development that has been constant since the protests began: a stubborn refusal to meet the protesters' demands in some way, the ever-escalating violence, and the ever-escalating threat of even more violence.

A little more than a week ago, the first shot was fired, a warning shot fired by a police officer. A day later, Chinese state media released images of columns of military vehicles driving into Hong Kong from the mainland. The explanation that it was about an annual and planned "rotation of staffing at the Hong Kong garrison" did not make the pictures less ominous, not in the current situation.

The current situation is a kind of claustrophobic wait, after three months of completely locked positions. And over the oppressive feeling in a waiting city, the specter of events at the Tiananmen Square hangs in June 1989. A military intervention against the protesters has seemed, if not likely, possible. China's President Xi Jinping is pressured by both the trade war and the unrest in Hong Kong.

One sign of the press against Xi Jinping is that he has waited unusually long to announce an important political meeting for China's top leadership, namely the Central Committee's fourth plenary. Only a few days ago came the message that the annual meeting should be convened. It will launch in October. He has been waiting for eight months, they are usually held in February.

Beijing was also waiting for the first of September, because then the students in Hong Kong would return to school, and it was hoped that the protests would come to a natural end. That date came and went, and only meant that the students had an opportunity to show even greater determination, by school strike.

Now, instead, Beijing seems to have chosen a new tactic. From trying to scare the protest movement, one tries to calm down the events.

Perhaps today's message from Carrie Lam is a first step towards a calmer Hong Kong, and perhaps even a more compromising China.