Will Sadat continue? Scenarios of the Egyptian crisis after the cry of prisons

Mahmoud Ibrahim-Cairo

The demands of detainees in Egypt for a political settlement to get out of prisons have sparked wide debate about the future and scenarios of the situation in the country since the military coup against the late President Mohamed Morsi in the summer of 2013.

Over the past six years, theses have ranged from reconciliation to confrontation by opposition forces, led by the Muslim Brotherhood, which has the largest share of detainees.

It has also come out of close to the regime and independent calls for a political breakthrough, but most collided with the position of the coup leader current President Abdel Fattah al-Sisi on the reconciliation, which usually links the other party to terrorism.

In the face of this, the belief that a political breakthrough in Egypt is imminent has dissipated, despite the fact that Sisi was able to govern after the recent constitutional amendments, the subsequent death of Morsi and the subsequent lack of legitimacy demands, and the inclusion of detainees from the group in the lists of recent presidential amnesty.

According to experts and sources talked to Al Jazeera Net, it seems that the closest scenario to the Egyptian crisis survival of the situation as it stands, based on the imposition of control by the regime in return for the fragility of the opposition and the suffering of the Brotherhood crises and divisions.

On the other hand, opposition movements abroad towards the formation of revolutionary alliances may seem a point of light at the end of the dark tunnel for them, with the Brotherhood affirming its commitment to the peaceful revolutionary path.

The cry of a detainee

A few days ago the media leaked a message from inside the prisons addressed to the Brotherhood leaders, revealing the suffering of political prisoners in Egypt.

The letter called on the group's leaders inside and outside prisons to move in every possible way to resolve their crisis with the regime in Egypt, and not hesitate to take a step back that would save them the remnants of the group, and keep them a little of the rest of their youth, according to the text of the letter.

Though not the first of its kind, the letter strongly asserted itself in the regime's media space and the opposition, but received only political reaction from the opposition, where Brotherhood leaders commented on it as a security message, while others demanded a positive response.

Sadat case
The Muslim Brotherhood's position on the current crisis seems very similar to the so-called Sadat situation that preceded the October 1973 war, when there were no signs of war or peace process between Egypt and Israel at the time. .

What reinforces this scenario, according to observers, the leaders of the group talk of its commitment to the peaceful revolutionary path in the form of repeated statements from time to time, without offering effective steps to make it succeed.

The group's affiliates came out last year and stated that there was an intention to "go back for a reconciliation that would allow the release of all detainees."

A few days ago, Talaat Fahmy, a Brotherhood spokesman, told Al Jazeera directly that "the group tried to communicate with the regime but closed the doors."

Fahmy's speech at the time came to comment on the letter attributed to a number of Brotherhood detainees in prisons.

At the time, the media spokesman stressed the commitment to the revolutionary course, and not to abandon the January Revolution or the rights of martyrs or detainees, without putting forward the vision of the group in that.

Line up and change
Prominent Egyptian politician Ayman Nour believes that the crisis situation in Egypt will not last long, and that the situation remains the same and surrender is not true, pointing to the efforts being made cumulatively will eventually lead to "the desired change that will come very soon or in the medium term." According to his description.

In his interview with Al Jazeera Net, Nour referred to the revolutionary alignment initiative announced a few months ago, pointing out that the change will be through a broad coalition of victims of the regime who have suffered politically, economically, humanly and humanely.

Regarding the detainees' recent message, Nour said, "We are facing a regime that does not know the meaning of the word solution and does not seek any solution, whether through democratic mechanisms through elections or referendums, or a solution through political dialogue."

He added that his country is witnessing a state of crude tyranny (presidential systems without elections or referendums) for a regime that does not want to take any steps towards social reconciliation or mitigate polarization, where he believes that its continuation is based on the continuation of the collision and the continuation of bloodshed.

Conditional Reconciliation

Ruled out scenarios of compromise or cracking the regime at the moment, says Mustafa Zahran, a researcher in the affairs of Islamic movements, that the political scene "is not a crisis, but the real crisis in the Muslim Brotherhood."

In an interview with the island Net Zahran explained that "the Brotherhood is torn and divided on itself, and the Egyptian regime derives its strength from that."

He pointed out that the group is divided by the opportunity to give the system without a settlement "if the authority basically sees this as a solution," he said.

Regarding the recent message attributed to detainees in the Brotherhood, Zahran considered that "there are young Brotherhood in prisons are victims of the records of the group and the existing authority."

He linked the existence of a fixed and existing Brotherhood entity with the opportunity for reconciliation, negotiation and political settlement with the regime in the future.

No reconciliation

MP Mohamed Abu Hamed, a member of the Egyptian parliament, considered the idea of ​​reconciliation between the regime and the Muslim Brotherhood "just a media consumption and nothing more."

Abu Hamed said in an interview with Al Jazeera Net that Egypt "is not experiencing a political crisis, but there is a political and constitutional framework has been formed, and therefore those who call for reconciliation or export to the situation of instability or political crises ordered them in their imagination."

He stressed that "Egypt currently has elected institutions and a stable political situation at the local and regional levels."

Abu Hamed's words are consistent with Egyptian President Abdel Fattah al-Sisi, who said that the Muslim Brotherhood would not have a role in the Egyptian scene during his time in power during his interview with the Kuwaiti newspaper Al-Shahed in October 2018.

But Sisi himself has said more than once that the decision to reconcile with the Brotherhood belongs to the Egyptian people, which some interpreted at the time that Sisi opens the door to reconciliation.

Will the Sadat situation continue to dominate the Egyptian crisis, or will the coming days carry a breakthrough, whether with a political settlement or a new revolution that activists say continues to caress the dreams of the Egyptians?