On Thursday, August 29, the first meeting of the new Verkhovna Rada will be held in Kiev. The deputies elected in the early elections on July 21 will take the oath. The first to be honored is the oldest member of the parliament, 78-year-old Julius Ioffe, representing the Opposition Platform - For Life.
Then, in accordance with the regulations, the leadership of the Rada - the speaker and vice-speakers will be elected. So far, the only candidate for the post of chairman of the parliament remains the head of the presidential party "Servant of the People" Dmitry Razumkov. Will be formed and parliamentary factions. It is expected that an appeal to parliamentarians will be made by President Vladimir Zelensky.
Personnel shifts
Under the Constitution, Ukraine is a presidential-parliamentary state, and it is the parliament that forms the government. According to Ukrainian media, the country hopes that on August 29 the country will recognize the names of the Prime Minister and members of his cabinet. So far, the most discussed and probable candidate for the post of head of government remains the 35-year-old deputy head of the Presidential Office, Alexey Goncharuk. Prior to joining Zelensky’s team, he headed the European Union-funded expert center BRDO.
- Alexey Goncharuk
- © @ aleksey.goncharuk
The start of the new Rada’s composition should also lead to changes in the leadership of the prosecutor general’s office. The current head of the department Yuriy Lutsenko promised to resign as soon as he finds out the name of the new speaker of the Rada. Parliament must approve his successor. Media outlets for this position are Deputy Head of the Zelensky Office Ruslan Ryaboshapku. On August 27, during a visit to Kiev, his candidacy was approved by John Bolton, US Presidential Adviser on National Security.
The fate of another important figure in the current power bloc - the Minister of the Interior Arsen Avakov - Zelensky's representatives are still silent. In particular, on August 28, Dmitry Razumkov at a press conference did not comment on rumors about a possible promotion of Avakov to the post of deputy prime minister for security issues.
As David Arahamia, an elected deputy from the Servant of the People, said earlier, representatives of opposition parties refused to take part in the formation of the new cabinet. At the same time, MP Arthur Gerasimov, who was elected to Parliament from the party of Petro Poroshenko “European Solidarity”, expressed the opinion that a coalition of the parties “Voice”, “Fatherland” and “Servant of the People” could be formed in parliament.
Ukrainian media also report that the positions of the heads of the Verkhovna Rada committees have already been distributed. In particular, RBC-Ukraine, referring to Dmitry Razumkov, states that most of the committees will be headed by representatives of the Servant of the People. Only the committees on European integration, freedom of speech, youth and sport will be headed by representatives of European Solidarity (Ivanna Klimpush-Tsintsadze), Opposition Platform - For Life (Nestor Shufrich) and Fatherland (Andrey Kozhemyakin), respectively.
It is expected that another committee - on the issues of "human rights, de-occupation and reintegration of temporarily occupied territories, national minorities and interethnic relations" - will be led by an extra-faction deputy, a former people's deputy from the Petro Poroshenko Bloc, Dmitry Lubents.
In addition to political issues, the new composition of the Rada will have to face a technological challenge. On August 27, representatives of the SBU and the State Bureau of Investigation (GBR) rushed into parliament to conduct investigative actions, which aroused the indignation of the still acting speaker of the Rada, Andrei Parubiy.
Security officials consider it a violation of the law the decision of the current parliament apparatus to put into operation the so-called touch buttons. They were developed back in 2008 to prevent voting for deputies absent in the hall. However, attempts to adopt the new system were unsuccessful. And only before the start of the work of the new parliament, Paruby personally decided to launch it.
The representative of President Zelensky in the Rada, Ruslan Stefanchuk, has already warned that the “touch button” can lead to problems in voting on the first day of the meeting of the new Rada. However, according to him, if necessary, deputies will “vote by hand”.
Priority measures
According to the results of the July 21 elections, 254 deputies from the Servant of the People passed to the Parliament of Ukraine. Such a quantitative advantage - almost 30 mandates of more than half the payroll - allows Zelensky’s party not only to form a government alone, but also to actually promote any bills.
Among the priorities that deputies can take up, as Ruslan Stefanchuk said earlier, is to amend the Constitution of the country. They relate to the reduction in the number of members of the Rada and the abolition of parliamentary immunity. According to Stefanchuk, Zelensky’s party intends to make 465 changes to the country's main law.
- Ruslan Stefanchuk
- Reuters
- © Valentyn Ogirenko
On August 27, the deputy from the “Servant of the People” Yuri Kamelchuk announced that parliamentarians intend to adopt “more than 30, and possibly even up to 100 bills” on the first day of work. At the same time, Ruslan Ryaboshapka suggested that the parliament could approve 10-15 bills for the first week of work.
Representatives of the “Servants of the People” also stated that the first bills to be considered by the Ukrainian parliament would be the rules on lifting the parliamentary immunity and impeachment of the president. Earlier, Vladimir Zelensky himself spoke of the intention to make such proposals. Also, according to the press secretary of the presidential party, Tatyana Tsyba, laws are being prepared on the responsibility for illegal enrichment and on parliamentary opposition.
“As I understand it, the deputies will be offered to vote for a huge number of laws literally at the first meetings. This includes the abolition of parliamentary immunity, bills for the development of the IT industry, the legalization of incomes of the population, the fight against the registration of large businesses in a state of emergency, ”a representative of the Voice party said in an interview with RT.
“It seems to me that the deputies will simply not be able to read a hundred bills. Therefore, everything will be the same as in previous parliaments - voting will take place according to the order from above, ”he noted.
In turn, a source in the party "Fatherland said that" among the priorities is a bill that relates to the legalization of cars on Euro numbers. "
“This is definitely not the most important reform for the country. I think that Zelensky’s entourage fears protests in the fall, which is why he is taking such a step. The desire of the Rada to vote for everything at once in one day can lead not only to chaos, but also to pushing "new schemes". It takes several months to study all these bills, ”the source said.
Masterful "Servants"
However, according to experts, it is still not a fact that the Servant of the People party will be completely controlled by President Zelensky. Earlier, oligarch Igor Kolomoisky, whom some consider close to the president, said that up to 100 people could leave the Zelensky faction. This, according to Kolomoisky, could lead to new parliamentary elections.
A RT source in the Servant of the People party claims that it was the fears of the impending collapse of the faction that prompted the Ukrainian authorities to push as many bills as possible in the first days and months of the Verkhovna Rada - until the deputies settled down and found new patrons.
“The deputies were directly told that they would have to work almost around the clock. The President believes that the Rada will be able to work effectively only for six months, and then confusion and reeling will begin. No one will simply vote for any documents, ”the source said.
- Congress of the party "Servant of the people" in Kiev
- RIA News
At the same time, a representative of the European Solidarity party, in a conversation with RT, expressed the opinion that in the first weeks of work, the “Servant of the People” will demonstrate to voters “unity and desire to carry out reforms”.
“But in reality the party is not monolithic and, according to my forecasts, serious conflicts can begin inside,” Petro Poroshenko, representative of the party, believes.
According to the deputy director of the Institute of the CIS countries, Vladimir Zharikhin, the disintegration of the Zelensky fraction into interest groups is inevitable.
“As specific decisions are made, interests begin to diverge. Therefore, gradually the party will begin to divide into groups that, to one degree or another, will become embryonic groups, which will be further divided into fractions. It will be a relatively quick process, ”said RT Zharikhin.
In turn, the director of the Institute of Peacekeeping Initiatives and Conflictology Denis Denisov, in a commentary on RT, stressed that there are basically no monolithic political forces in Ukraine. Different groups within parties and factions are affiliated with various oligarchic structures. The Servant of the People will not be an exception, the expert believes. And this will lead to the fact that the deputies will begin to contradict the authorities on issues of interest to these groups.
“The chances are very small that all the initiatives of the presidential administration will certainly be implemented,” Denisov said.
"Unreal dreams"
According to a sociological survey of the Democratic Initiatives Foundation and the Kiev International Institute of Sociology, conducted from August 8 to 20, Ukrainians are most likely to expect a ceasefire from President Vladimir Zelensky in the Donbass. Such expectations were stated by 71.5% of respondents. In second place is the increase in salaries, pensions, and living standards (44%). On the third - tariff reduction (31%).
- Protest rally in Kiev
- RIA News
During the presidency of Petro Poroshenko, Kiev has not adopted the laws stipulated by the Minsk Agreements - on the amnesty of combatants in the east of the country and the special status of Donbass. This status should be enshrined in the Constitution of Ukraine.
At the end of July, the representative of Russia in the contact group on the situation in the east of Ukraine Boris Gryzlov wished the Ukrainian parliament to adopt a law on the special status of Donbass. Russian President Vladimir Putin spoke about the need to advance the Ukrainian side in this process during his last meeting with French leader Emmanuel Macron.
In turn, on August 24, Daniil Getmantsev, the elected deputy of the Verkhovna Rada from the Party of the People’s Party, opposed granting Donbass a special status, since this step allegedly could lead to the "loss of the country."
Kolomoisky also spoke on this subject, in whose opinion Zelensky should refuse to fulfill the part of the Minsk agreements that relates to amendments to the Constitution. Now in the Verkhovna Rada only the party “Opposition Platform - For Life” advocates the adoption of the corresponding law.
“The New Council and the new government will not be able to meet the Ukrainians' hopes for peace, tariff reductions, and the fight against corruption. Because there are too many external forces that are not interested in solving these problems. External forces represented by the USA and Europe are not interested in resolving these problems, ”said Vladimir Zharikhin.
This position was also supported by Denis Denisov, who said that so far there are no signs that the Ukrainian authorities are really ready to take the necessary steps towards normalizing relations with the self-proclaimed republics of Donbass.
“Until now, we have not seen a concrete plan from the side of the president and his entourage,” the expert believes. - Regarding the reduction of tariffs in Ukraine, these are completely unrealizable dreams for Ukrainian society. “Although such mechanisms exist, the conjuncture and political situation in the country do not favor such changes.”