Speculation that Trump and Rouhani will meet next month is skeptical and optimistic in Washington

Mohamed Minshawi-Washington

US President Donald Trump wants to meet his Iranian counterpart Hassan Rouhani on the sidelines of the UN General Assembly next month, and the administration is working quietly and privately to hold the meeting.

With these words, Nicholas Heras, a Middle East expert at the new US National Security Center, began his dialogue with Al Jazeera Net on developments regarding the possibility of a Trump and Rouhani summit.

The Iranian president renewed his request to the United States to "take the first step" by lifting sanctions on Iran, after US President Donald Trump was open to the idea of ​​a summit with him in line with mediation efforts by French President Emmanuel Macron.

At the end of the G7 summit, Trump said a meeting with his Iranian counterpart was expected in the coming weeks, and Trump had agreed to meet Rouhani "if conditions are right."

Heras believes that Trump "believes that if he meets his Iranian counterpart face to face, he will be able to convince the Iranians to return to negotiations on their nuclear and missile program, as well as Iran's behavior that threatens the stability of the Middle East."

At the same time, an expert on Iranian affairs at the Quincy Trita Parsi Institute, as he tweeted, blames Trump and says that "the crisis facing Washington and Tehran mainly stemmed from Washington's breach of its commitments after the withdrawal of the Trump administration from the nuclear deal."

Lobby opponents
Ben Rhodes, a top adviser to former President Barack Obama, described Trump's policy toward Iran as dangerous and likened it to a train on broken bars, which seriously hurt the credibility of the United States.

He stressed that Trump's policy "is a logical extension of the view of Benjamin Netanyahu, Republicans and research centers financed by the United Arab Emirates united by hostility to the nuclear deal. Trump does just what they dictate."

Gerald Sepp, a foreign affairs expert at the Wall Street Journal, listed three obstacles to any summit between Trump and Rouhani, but also mentioned ways to overcome them.

The first is Tehran's demand for the lifting of sanctions imposed by Washington since it withdrew from the nuclear deal. It is hard to imagine this happening, but it can work with Western allies to lend huge loans or financial facilities to Tehran to overcome the effects of those sanctions.

The second of these obstacles is related to the wide opposition that may face the holding of a summit meeting between Rouhani and Tehran from the circles which he described as hard-line in the Iranian regime, especially before Washington offers what shows its goodwill towards Tehran. Hold such a summit.

The latest of these obstacles concerns the announcement by US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo last year that Tehran must comply with 12 conditions before sitting at the negotiating table.

It is difficult for Tehran to meet these demands, which focus on removing Iranian support from its regional allies such as the Houthis and Hezbollah, as well as curtailing its missile program. Sepp believes that this request may be overlooked by Washington in order to achieve the goal of holding the Trump Rouhani summit.

Parsi believes that the recent developments of a meeting that could facilitate understanding of the recent Israeli escalation by bombing targets inside Syria, Iraq and Lebanon, "If Tehran chooses to respond, it will eliminate any possibility of a summit between Rouhani and Trump."

Trump's desire to meet
Many US experts believe that President Trump cannot hide his desire to hold a summit with President Rouhani, such as that with North Korean leader Kim Jong Un.

Holding such a summit would give Trump broad public support as he continues to deliver on his election promises. "If the meeting takes place, President Trump will receive bipartisan support for his efforts to renegotiate with Iran."

Republicans fully support Trump, while Democrats are demanding that Trump be more sophisticated in his diplomatic engagement with the Iranians, according to researcher Nicholas Heras.

Despite the Trump team's realization that "Tehran cannot accept US demands, the conception of the meeting is growing as France and the Europeans pressured Iran to give President Trump what he wants to hold a direct meeting."

As the US presidential election season begins in November 2020, Heras believes Trump understands that "a summit with Rouhani would open the door to broad negotiations between the Americans and the Iranians, which would be a big boost for Trump and the Republicans as we approach the 2020 elections."