The sharp statements exchanged between Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov and Turkish Foreign Minister Mevlut Cavusoglu reflect the escalating disagreement between the two sides against the backdrop of the field developments in Idlib, and the possibility of further escalation in the coming period, due to the launch of the joint military operation between the Russian and Syrian army forces, Which led to the restoration of Khan Sheikhoun, the largest city of the southern countryside of Idlib, and the withdrawal of the forces of HTS (Jabhat al-Nusra), in parallel with Lavrov's assertion that the two sides will continue military operations to liberate Idlib from the grip of terrorists, revealing that Moscow is moving forward in the operations. The military, without regard to the reaction of Ankara, which is still determined to adhere to the Sochi Agreement, and refused to evacuate the insurance points approved by the agreement.

Several axes:

The most prominent controversial issues between Turkey and Russia on the field developments in Idlib are:

1. New rules of engagement

The military strike, which was aimed at repelling the progress of a Turkish military reinforcements convoy of 50 military vehicles, increased the expectations of observers the possibility of a direct Russian-Turkish military escalation. The bombing of the column was not part of the so-called "friendly fire", as was evident in the statements of Russian and Turkish officials, about this particular operation. Russia, which often leads aerial bombardments in joint battles with Syrian army forces, justified the reinforcements on its way to terrorist elements, while Ankara said it was heading for a security post. Zavishoglu has avoided blaming Moscow for the bombing - which is reported to have been repeated at least six times - in which he accused the regime of involvement, demanding that it "stop manipulating fire." Overall, it is envisaged that Russia is still keen to emphasize the priority of changing the situation in Idlib and restoring it in favor of the regime at the expense of the Turkish military presence.

2. A sharp diplomatic speech

A new diplomatic clash erupted, with Lavrov not only referring to Moscow's previous warnings of impatience with growing terrorism in Idlib, and that the Sochi Agreement will not last forever, but explicitly held Ankara responsible for the increased control of terrorist organizations in Idlib from 50 to 90% He added that, in addition to his submission in this context, he stressed that the security points established in accordance with the agreement, did not carry out its tasks under which to undermine the structure of terrorist organizations, which implies a Russian indictment is the first of its kind for Turkey to support terrorist organizations in Syria.

3- The implications of the Turkish-American rapprochement east of the Euphrates

The overall recent developments in the Syrian landscape also reflect a paradox that most of the estimates follow, and that the current clash between Moscow and Ankara comes in the wake of a US-Turkish rapprochement, imposed by Washington and Ankara's success in reaching understandings on the safe area on the other side, after a series of One of the differences between them because of the completion of the S400 deal between Turkey and Russia, in what is considered by several trends as an indication of the prospects of changing alliances in the future again.

Possible scenarios:

In the short term, it is conceivable that the current developments will be reflected in the Russian-Turkish relations, but this will depend on the response of the parties concerned to the understanding on Idlib and the fate of the Turkish presence there. In the context of these developments, a number of possible scenarios could be put forward, for example:

1. Continued escalation

Although Turkey faces accusations by several parties of supporting terrorism, which it is pursuing in Syria and other countries, it seems different to them, when Russia supports these accusations, either implicitly or explicitly, especially since this means that Moscow may seek to put Further obstacles to Turkey's attempts to maintain its military bases in Idlib will be reflected in the relations between the two parties, whose pattern may change during the next phase.

2 - contain tension

The two sides may reconsider mechanisms for dealing with the current crisis, which could increase the likelihood of contacts between them to defuse mutual tension. But it is also possible that Turkey will seek to gain several points by resorting to changing its tactics in Idlib, such as pushing the opposition forces to the fore as a substitute for the fighters of the HTS, which they control, and perhaps making way for Russia and the regime to confront the latter, which implies. To the statements of Turkish Foreign Ministry officials from time to time, in the context of allegations of support for the so-called Syrian National Army or opposition forces to the regime, allowing it to enhance the opportunity to maintain the "manifestations" of the Sochi Agreement, to ensure that the opposition forces remain until the conclusion of the political agreement, Thus maintaining the security points set up A. There are.

3. New Deal

In the medium term, the two sides may seek an understanding on the establishment of a safe zone in Idlib, similar to the Turkish-American safe zone east of the Euphrates, a demand adopted by Turkey in the first phase of the outbreak of the Syrian conflict, but has not been supported, but it will depend on the extent Moscow responded to this demand.

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Interim testing

Russian-Turkish relations face an interim test, which will determine the solidity of the existing alliance between Ankara and Moscow. This does not mean that this alliance is subject to sharp changes, especially since the two sides have the ability to overcome the repercussions of the current developments. However, the most important significance of this shift is that Turkish-Russian relations in Syria are governed by a framework of deals and understandings that are vulnerable to collapse, a pattern that reflects the pragmatism of the coalition parties in managing their relations.

- Although Turkey faces accusations from many parties

Supporting terrorism, it seems different to her,

When Russia supports these accusations, both formally

Implicit or explicit, especially since it means that Moscow has

Seeking to put more obstacles to attempts

Ankara retains its military bases in Idlib.