2014 was a difficult year for the Middle East, but it was an interesting year for Russia. While the Islamic world was witnessing the rise of ISIS, Russian President Vladimir Putin was lifting a ban previously imposed on private military contractors by Russia, after admitting in an interview in 2012 that they "must be taken into account." That year saw the birth of the Russian group «Wagner», headed by a former Ukrainian soldier, stood with the Ukrainian separatists supported by Russia, before the establishment of his mercenary unit. Wagner saw a rapid transition from fighting in Ukraine to the civil war in Syria. 2,500 Wagner troops are believed to be fighting for Russia and Syrian President Bashar al-Assad.

The latest development

Wagner is only Russia's latest development in the special war. Although not the first country to engage in foreign adventures with mercenaries, Russia is setting a new and dangerous trend: using mercenaries only in combat rather than logistical support for its armed forces. This aggressive intervention adds a new dimension to Putin's power abroad. “Russia's intervention in Syria has served many of Putin's interests,” explains Joshua Jaffa. “The Assad regime saved from defeat, stopped the specter of regime change, and secured an undeniable role for Russia. Middle East.

Other analysts go further. Dr. Kirill Avramov and journalist Ruslan Terad argue that Syria is using Russia's "testing ground" to master a "hybrid proxy war, and to disguise the lines between official foreign policy and private groups to create a shadowy gray zone of combat, run by the state through private groups."

Publicly, Wagner's mission was limited to security support only. However, as it became clear in 2018, over the past two years, the group has been actively involved in training, intelligence gathering and advanced operations on behalf of the Syrian army. On paper, there are no official ties between Russian forces in Syria and Wagner; however, the group is an important support for Russian forces on the ground.

Change the intervention policy

In addition to achieving Russia's objectives in Syria, the deployment of special military groups such as Wagner changes the policy of foreign intervention. With the group concentrated in sensitive Middle East regions, Putin can cut political costs to achieve its geostrategic goals. In fact, the continued use of mercenaries allowed the official announcement of the withdrawal of Russian troops from strategically vital areas in Syria, knowing that mercenaries could replace state soldiers. At the same time, it is still possible to enhance their participation in the Middle East as a form of propaganda. Take the so-called "ISIS snipers" in Russia.

These snipers are closely linked to the Wagner group and have received Russian and even Arab media coverage since the increase in Syrian forces in 2017 against ISIS. In a ridiculous development, propaganda videos show images of mercenaries advancing against ISIS operatives at a time when snipers send threats to ISIS fighters, promising to execute 100 of them for every Russian hostage held by the terrorist organization in 2017. ISIS snipers, along with ISIS's public allegations of the capture of Russian mercenaries, illustrate how the privatization of the war can blur the lines and change the balance very quickly.

Analysts Avramov and Terad say the important interaction between mercenaries and Russian armed forces abroad is shifting "the boundaries between the public and private sectors in the name of demanding the practical successes of the official armed forces, while reducing the number of deaths through private military companies."

Russia's tendency to outsource military resources is growing only in Syria and the Middle East. In addition to contracting with Assad for 25% of the profits from the oil fields, Wagner has finally expanded to Africa.

By the beginning of 2018, ousted Sudanese President Omar al-Bashir had hired the Wagner Group to enhance the security of his regime. The group was expected to deal with a leader wanted by the International Tribunal for his involvement in war crimes, to ensure Russian business deals related to gold, diamonds and uranium. The importance of natural resources to Russia should not be underestimated as part of Putin's privatization of the war. A year after arriving in Sudan, Wagner also sent mercenaries to the Central African Republic.

Remove the separator lines

It is clear that Russia is removing the lines between government armed forces and commercial actors after it signed arms deals with the Central African Republic, a year before the arrival of the Wagner Group. Russian sources argue that troops in the Central African Republic are merely trainers who help train local forces. Observers note the group's presence in unstable areas, which are rich in natural resources.

Own war industry

The end of the Cold War was a catalyst for the emergence of the "special war industry." The United States is famous for this trend in Iraq and Afghanistan, yet it is America's former adversary that is expanding this battle even further. The Middle East and Africa are a new chessboard. After the Arab Spring, Africa appears to be the new gold mine for special military operations. Ultimately, however, we must not forget that private military companies often represent the interests of the state.

Wagner became an open secret to Putin, as evidenced by the alleged murder of Russian journalists reporting on the group. Even American journalists have been targeted, emphasizing Putin's desire to hide official ties between Moscow and Wagner to maintain reasonable denial and reduce the political costs of fighting while expanding his ambitions in the Middle East. A new Cold War began, rooted in sabotage, guerrilla tactics, corruption and strategic alliances in conflict zones. The United States and its allies are watching closely.

Nikolai Dew Gundersen is an analyst and political writer

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