Italy was plunged into this crisis 12 days ago, when the NLD party chairman and deputy prime minister, Matthew Salvini, felt the opportunity to take advantage of his overwhelming popularity and demanded new elections. Despite his recent hints, including what he said last Tuesday that both coalition partners would be able to fix things in the end, the coalition had ended, and trust between its parties had evaporated. The 5-Star Movement now calls Salvini "untrustworthy."
Outgoing Prime Minister Josep Conte launched an attack in his speech to the Italian Congress against Salvini, accusing him of "political opportunism" and "showing a great lack of constitutional culture" by sacking the government when parliament was on its summer recess. He has often criticized the far-right leader for holding a rosary while delivering speeches or debates. Conte claimed that the NLD tried to obtain funding for his party from an illegal party in Russia.
When Salvini ended the coalition early this month while campaigning on Italy's shores, he was confident an early election would be won. But things proved more complicated than he thought. The idea of a coalition between the 5-star and the center-left Democratic parties, which hate each other, has received more support than expected, raising the prospect of removing the NLD from power for years.
Salvini had the opportunity to sack the government while the NLD confirmed its victory in the European Union elections at the end of May, but hesitated. But he came back and made the move while the Italian parliament was on summer recess, giving his rivals the chance to regroup. Though still brilliant, he no longer seems a genius in political tactics. His speech in the Senate seemed curiously improvisational.
What happens next depends on Italian President Sergio Matarella. He may decide to return to a ballot as inevitable. It could take several months to form a coalition between the "5-Star" and the Democratic Party, although the latter has spread the idea badly, and the budget's achievement will show the extent of tension between the parties. Of course, such a government will not be more stable than its predecessor. Salvini is now portraying the idea as a deceptive ploy by the political establishment to keep him out of power.
The NLD leader anticipated Tuesday's congressional meetings, proposing an economic stimulus package of 50 billion euros in the 2020 budget, which could be presented to the European Commission in mid-October and approved by parliament before the end of the year. If serious, it would lead to a catastrophic confrontation with the EU, given Italy's huge debt.