Prioritize Sudan: Hamdouk in front of a minefield

Ahmed Fadl-Khartoum

Sudan's new Prime Minister, Abdullah Hamdouk, must pass minefields in order to reach the implementation of difficult priorities that he raised following the swearing-in.

The Sudanese street sees Hamdouk as the savior of the country's deteriorating economy since South Sudan seceded in 2011 and went about 75 percent of oil production, leading to an accelerated rise in inflation and a dire depreciation of the national currency (pound).

Although the Sudanese revolution was led by a broad coalition of political and civic forces, the man would clash with a cracked internal front at the level of the revolution's allies themselves, as well as political forces that feel excluded and marginalized.

During the first six months of the three-year transition period, Hamdok will have to manage the issues of war and peace leading to a reasonable settlement with the armed movements.

National Accord
Hamdouk's reassuring messages that despite his nomination by the Freedom and Change Forces will likely work for all Sudanese, are unlikely to curb emerging opposition currents, such as the coordination of national forces led by the Popular Congress Party.

The leader of the Popular Congress Party, Tajuddin Banga, downplayed the prime minister's speech and described it as "expatriate talk" because the man did not appear to read the constitutional document.

Bandu says to Al Jazeera Net, that Hamdouk at the head of the government of freedom and change, a government that will implement the program of this coalition, which is free of consensus, according to his opinion.

Hamdouk advises to open the constitution document for amendment in order to accommodate the views of other political forces, as the current constitution does not authorize the prime minister other than the program of forces that nominated him for the post, adding, "If (Hamdouk) serious, he must first amend the constitution."

The Popular Congress Party leader Ali al-Hajj has vowed in previous statements to "tear" the constitutional document and the fall of the new government.

war and peace
According to the transitional documents, the transitional government should work to achieve peace during the first six months of its life, which Hamdok has made a priority in building sustainable peace and ending the suffering of displaced people and refugees.

Sadeq Yusuf Hassan, vice-president of the Justice and Equality Movement (JEM) and vice-president of the European-Sudanese Center for Peace Studies in the Horn of Africa, Paris, believes that Hamdouk said this issue will remain a concern for the next government.

However, Youssef assures Al-Jazeera Net that reassuring that Hamdouk in his speech gave priority to the issue, saying, "The man has contacts with all armed movements and we are optimistic about his speech to address the problem."

Yusuf expressed hope that the dossier would not return to the first box when the former government negotiated in Abuja, Doha and Addis Ababa without interest, and stated that there are requirements for the Revolutionary Front "alliance of armed movements" and the displaced and refugees and security arrangements.

The crisis of the economy
Economist Mohammed Al-Nair is optimistic that Hamdouk will talk about reliance on production and self-resources rather than donations and grants, as well as his promise to scrutinize the criteria of his government staff to reject any nominations for change forces to ministries if they are weak.

But the expert returns and warns against resorting to easy solutions by lifting subsidies on hydrocarbons and other goods and services, because the former regime tried it five to six times and caused the devaluation of the pound, and create new pressure on the citizen who will not bear more burdens.

He advised Nair to stabilize the exchange rate and find the actual value of the pound first, and then consider raising support.

The lifting of fuel subsidies led to violent protests in September 2013 in which about 200 protesters were shot dead by the security services, and protests that toppled Omar al-Bashir on December 19 over doubling the price of bread.

Solution paths
The economist proposes two paths to reform the economy, with the spirit of compromise between the military and civilians prevailing during the short transitional period and avoiding overlapping of powers between the Sovereign and Councils of Ministers.

He believes that a short-term path should remove distortions in the economy, such as the existence of two “official and parallel” dollar prices, two “check and cash” prices, the eradication of the parasite and brokers, and the state's stay away from market surveillance under the pretext of liberalization.

Nair said that cash shortage is a big distortion, as 97% to 98% of banknotes are outside banks, indicating that Hamdouk talked about the restructuring of Sudanese banks that do not collectively equal the capital of a foreign bank, and suggested increasing the paid-up capital to one billion pounds for any bank.

Wasted resources
According to official reports, Sudan exported 6.6 tons during the first half of this year while the target is 50 tons.

He calls for bringing the savings and remittances of expatriates "6-8 billion dollars annually" to the banking system by giving them incentives and real value of remittances, as well as achieving political remedies by removing Sudan from the list of terrorism, curbing corruption and bringing peace.

In the long run, tight plans to increase production and productivity in agriculture, grazing and industry and halt crude exports, excluding the export of sacrificial animals, will pay off in one to two years.