Political Transition: What Consequences May Conte Resign as Italian Prime Minister

Italian Prime Minister Giuseppe Conte resigned from his post. He filed a statement to the President of the Republic, Sergio Mattarella, the presidential Quirinal Palace said in a statement.

“President of the Republic Sergio Mattarella received the Chairman of the Council of Ministers, Professor Giuseppe Conte, who transmitted the resignation. The President took note of this and instructed Conte to fulfill current responsibilities, ”the report says.

It is additionally noted that political consultations will begin on August 21, the purpose of which is to determine whether it is possible to create another parliamentary majority that would support the new government.

Recall that earlier one of the leaders of the government coalition, Matteo Salvini, who heads the Liga party, announced that the political force had ceased to exist, and demanded a vote of no confidence in the Conte government.

In response, Conte announced his resignation, and in a farewell speech to the Senate accused Salvini of unleashing a political crisis and political irresponsibility.

“I intend to complete this political transition by saying that after the meeting I will go to the president of the republic and hand him a letter of resignation,” Conte emphasized earlier on Tuesday.

As Elena Maslova, a senior lecturer at the Moscow State Institute of International Relations and International Relations at the Moscow State Institute of International Relations, noted that in her conversation with RT, the Italian government crisis has entered an “active phase”. Now, in her opinion, a lot will depend on what path the president of the country, Sergio Mattarella, will take.

“In Italy there is no option to automatically hold early elections. Now everything will depend on President Mattarella, ”says Maslova.

According to experts, the president may not call early elections and begin consultations with parties in parliament, prompting them to form a new government.

“After Conte’s resignation, most likely, an interim government will be created similar to what is now operating in Austria, where the ruling coalition has also collapsed,” Vladimir Schweitzer, head of the Center for Political and Political Studies of the Institute of Europe of the Russian Academy of Sciences, said in a conversation with RT.

The roots of the crisis

The impetus for the government crisis in Italy was a vote in parliament on August 7 on the construction of the Turin-Lyon high-speed railway. Then the two parties that make up the current government of the country: “League” and “Five Star Movement” voted in different ways. The League, unlike the Five Star Movement, supported the project. Disagreements arose for Matteo Salvini to demand the dissolution of the government and parliament and the holding of early elections.

• Minister of the Interior Matteo Salvini
• Reuters
• © Yara Nardi

The coalition created in May last year was united by the Euro-skepticism of both parties, which opposed the mainstream political forces and promised voters changes. In particular, they advocated the lifting of anti-Russian sanctions and limiting the flow of illegal immigrants to Italy.

However, disagreements accumulated as they worked in a single bundle: on tax policy, the candidacy of the new head of the European Commission, Ursula von der Leyen, and other foreign policy issues. The League, whose head positioned himself as a supporter of US President Donald Trump, did not approve of the prime minister’s attempts to get closer to China.

An additional incentive for Salvini to reconsider his participation in the coalition with the Five Star Movement was the growing popularity of his party amid the approval of a tough anti-immigration policy. Salvini became the beneficiary, as Minister of the Interior and Deputy Prime Minister, who was responsible for this policy.

As a result, the League, which was part of the coalition as a junior partner of the Five Star Movement, overtook its allies in popularity by popularity. So, according to sociologists, now about 36% of voters are ready to vote for the Salvini party, and exactly two times less for the Five Star Movement. According to the results of the March 2018 elections, the situation was the opposite.

Thus, according to analysts, Matteo Salvini has a theoretical opportunity to become the leader of the party with the largest number of deputies following the results of early elections. And this is a direct path to the prime minister’s chair.

Possible coalitions

However, even the current 36% support of the League is not enough to form a government. For this, new allies are needed. As such, according to the estimates of Italian and international media, there can be two parties - The Brothers of Italy, the ultra-right under the leadership of Georgi Meloni, and Forward, Italy! Under the leadership of Silvio Berlusconi. Salvini already had an experience of union with them. They went to the parliamentary elections in 2018 as a single bloc, though later Matteo Salvini preferred the coalition with the Five Star Movement to the Allies.

In an interview with Il Giornale on August 12, Salvini announced his readiness to recreate the right coalition. However, no formal agreement has yet been received from either Meloni or Berlusconi. According to experts interviewed by RT, Matteo Salvini will have to make a lot of efforts to overcome both personal and political differences with Silvio Berlusconi.

According to Elena Maslova, the early elections, which the League is counting on, may not take place at all. The fact is that the nearest time when they can be held is October. And a change of power at the end of the year when you need to adopt a budget is not the most tempting prospect, analysts say.

Another option that is also being discussed in world media: a likely coalition between the Five Star Movement and the Democratic Party. The latter has the second largest parliamentary faction. Until 2018, it was she who was ruling. However, on many issues, the "democrats" and "stars" have different positions, which calls into question the functioning of the cabinet.

Earlier, the ex-prime ministers Matteo Renzi and Romano Prodi called for the creation of such a government. The latter believes that it would be worth including representatives of “Forward, Italy!”. However, in this case, Matteo Salvini had already promised to take his supporters to the streets in protest.

“There is a point of view that the Conte-2 government will be formed, that is, a new coalition with a different set of parties will be created,” said Elena Maslova.

In this case, Matteo Salvini runs the risk of losing the power that is in his hands now, the expert adds.

• Italian Parliament meeting
• Reuters
• © Remo Casilli

However, according to Vladimir Schweitzer, early elections, in which the leading party will be the League, and Matteo Salvini will apply for the post of prime minister - the most anticipated option.

“The Italians cannot delay the date of the vote. The election campaign will take at least three months. Moreover, it is unlikely that the elections will be held on the eve or after Christmas, ”the expert said.

Troubled future

In any case, as political scientists say, the future government of Italy, whether it will be formed after the elections or before them, will be of the same coalitional nature. The new cabinet will face complex problems: the settlement of relations with the EU, the problem of illegal migration from African countries and the difficult situation in the economy.

“The internal problems of Italy are very closely intertwined with pan-European ones. The most important thing for the country is to resolve the situation with growing external debt. It is a serious threat to both the country's economy and the eurozone. Of course, modern Italy does not have such a catastrophic situation as, for example, Greece, but its growing debt burden complicates the European economy, ”states Schweitzer.

At the same time, according to political scientists, the course towards building a stable dialogue with Russia is unlikely to change.

“Everything will be stable with respect to Russia, because both parties are interested in further cooperation,” says Elena Maslova. - As for domestic politics, it all depends on the composition of the coalition. Fiscal issues will be raised again, reform is expected to reduce the number of parliamentarians. It has long been said that a large-scale constitutional reform has ripened, and this transformation trend will still continue under the next Italian government. ”

Yuri Kvashnin, head of the European Union Research Section of the Institute of World Economy and International Relations of the Russian Academy of Sciences, agrees with this point of view. In his opinion, a coalition of right-wing parties may well be beneficial for the Russian Federation, although one should not expect the lifting of European sanctions.

“Traditionally, the right-wing parties of Italy advocate constructive cooperation with Russia. They understand the importance of expanding economic ties with the Russian Federation, especially in the energy sector. It is likely that Rome and Moscow will be able to significantly improve trade and economic relations and launch mutually beneficial projects, ”Kvashnin said in an interview with RT.