Letter to Brussels: Boris Johnson expects new Brexit conditions from the EU

The UK is not happy with both backstop - the preservation of Northern Ireland in a customs union with the EU after Brexit, and the border regime between Northern Ireland and Ireland. This was written by British Prime Minister Boris Johnson, the head of the European Council, Donald Tusk.

“There is very little time, but the UK is ready to move forward quickly, and I hope that the European Union will also be ready, given the existing common ground. I am equally confident that if we manage to reach a satisfactory agreement without an “Irish clause”, our parliament will be able to act promptly: it has already demonstrated that the majority supports this kind of agreement, ”Johnson Tusk wrote.

Recall that the EU as the main condition for Britain to withdraw from this organization put a solution to the problem of Northern Ireland. According to the Brexit agreement, developed in Brussels and approved by Theresa May's government, but not yet approved by the British Parliament, this British territory after leaving the country from the European Union should remain within the Customs Union and the Single European Market for some time. This regime, called back-stop, was seen by the EU leadership as a concession to London, experts say.

From the point of view of European officials, his alternative can only be the establishment of a border regime between Ireland and Northern Ireland, similar to that which exists between any country that is both non-EU and non-EU.

In a letter to Tusk, Johnson categorically rejected the backstop option, calling it "anti-democratic and inappropriate for the sovereignty of the United Kingdom as a state." However, the prime minister also did not like the option of the border regime. Johnson recalled that the introduction of checks and controls on the border between Ireland and Northern Ireland is contrary to the terms of the so-called Good Friday Agreement, or the Belfast Agreement, concluded in 1998. It practically put an end to the clashes between Catholics and Protestants in the Northern Irish counties of Great Britain, which now occur quite rarely and do not have such a fierce character as before.

Johnson emphasized that the European Union should offer an alternative to these two options, and this should be done before October 31 - the deadline that the EU gave to the British Parliament in order to approve the Brexit agreement.

Donald Tusk responded to Johnson's Twitter message. In his opinion, the exclusion from the brexit agreement on the conditions for the preservation of Northern Ireland in the EU Customs Union will lead to the establishment of a rigid border on the island of Ireland.

“Backstop is a safety mechanism to avoid the establishment of a rigid border on the island of Ireland if an alternative is not found or until it is prepared. Those who oppose backstop without offering anything in return actually support border restoration, whether they admit it or not, ”Tusk wrote on his microblog on Twitter.

Domestic political factor

The British Prime Minister intends to devote the discussion of Brexit with European leaders all week. His working schedule includes meetings with the head of the Irish government Leo Varadkar, German Chancellor Angela Merkel, French President Emmanuel Macron.

“Of course, our friends and partners on the other side of the channel are now demonstrating unwillingness to change their position - this is normal, but I’m sure that they will do it. Nevertheless, we must also prepare for an exit (from the EU) without a deal, ”Johnson said in an interview with Euronews.

• British Prime Minister Boris Johnson
• Reuters
• © Toby Melville

The intention of the British Prime Minister to leave the European Union without any agreement causes great concern among many Britons. A recent government report, Operation Yellowhammer (Operation Yellowhammer), predicts that the immediate result of "hard brexitis" will be disruptions in the supply of drugs, as they come mainly from the mainland, as well as fuel for a significant part of the country's regions, including Of London. Due to the lack of agreement with the EU, up to 85% of trucks with goods and food that arrive in the UK through the English Channel will stand in line at French customs for several days.

The report predicts that it will be possible to partially stabilize the situation in only three months, but even then freight traffic will reach a maximum of 70% of today's level. The consequence of all these problems will be an increase in prices, primarily for food, the authors of the study claim.

Labor leader Jeremy Corbin has already stated that the opposition will try to prevent Brexit without a deal.

“We support the holding of an emergency parliamentary meeting to prevent the Prime Minister from withdrawing our country from the European Union on October 31 without further parliamentary discussions,” Reuters quoted the policy as saying.

The head of the research company Europe Insight Andrei Kulikov believes that the early termination of parliamentary vacations is primarily dictated by the interests of the political struggle in the UK.

“The Labor Party plans to raise the question of trust in Johnson under the pretext of combating hard brexitis. They intended to do this in early September, when the deputies would have planned to return from vacation. Now the Laborites want to start a discussion of this issue earlier. Corbin wants Johnson to speak in parliament as soon as possible, explained himself to the deputies. In this way, the Labor Party will get extra time to find allies in the fight with the Prime Minister, ”he said in an interview with RT.

Johnson’s letter to Tusk is also related to the domestic political situation in the country, Kulikov said. It came out before the British Prime Minister's tour of European capitals. At the same time, the addressee of the letter is not only EU politicians, but also their own voters, the expert believes.

“Early parliamentary elections are more than likely, this is a common opinion in the country,” Kulikov said.

Leonid Polyakov, a professor at the HSE Department of Political Science, doubts that the parliament will convene ahead of schedule, as the prime minister has enough opportunities to prevent this.

“Of course, Corbin is already gathering the whole royal army to put forward a vote of no confidence in Johnson. He longs to stand at the head of the so-called interim government in order to announce a new referendum on the advisability of withdrawing from the EU. However, the parliament may not be released from the holidays or even dissolved at all, ”Polyakov said in a commentary to RT.

“The Prime Minister will take risks”

The letter from the British Prime Minister gives the impression of a very vague document and an attempt to justify a hard brexit to voters, experts say.

“Johnson writes about the third option, but does not say what this option can be. He invites Europeans to come up with something themselves. None of the top officials of the European Union has yet responded to this proposal.

Nevertheless, there is information that the EU authorities adhere to their previous position, that there is an agreement and there will be no new negotiations. The only thing they can do is discuss the political declaration again. This is an optional document that outlines only the general contours of how the two sides see their future relationship, ”says Kulikov.

• Brexit protest at the border crossing between the Republic of Ireland and Northern Ireland at Carrickcarnon
• Reuters
• © Clodagh Kilcoyne

According to Polyakov, the “third option,” voiced in the letter, may be related to the establishment of an electronic control system on the border of Ireland and Northern Ireland, as is done on toll roads.

“That is, a special device will stand at the customs - a transponder, which will register the border crossing without contact. All participants in trade and other transactions will be recorded using radio waves, which will guarantee that there is no smuggling and will help establish real control at the alleged border. However, so far no one understands how this should be done technically, ”the expert said.

Polyakov suggests that other options are possible.

“There is a consideration among Johnson’s supporters about leaving without a deal and urgently holding an all-Ireland referendum on the issue of back-stop.” That is, we go out and transfer responsibility abroad to the Irish themselves, realizing their right to economic self-determination, ”he says.

However, the expert emphasizes that all these possible third options have a lot of minuses that can outweigh the advantages.

“The past three years since the referendum, where the British spoke out for leaving the EU, show that the problems surrounding this exit are not solved in any way. Whatever Johnson writes to Tusk, all of this is written with a pitchfork on the water, ”Polyakov says.

At the same time, the British Prime Minister needs to make some choice.

“The political fate of Johnson is in his own hands. Either Britain leaves the EU on October 31, or the reputation of the current prime minister is completely ruined. The fate of the conservative party, Johnson's party, in the event of early elections will also be a big question. In these conditions, the Prime Minister will take risks, ”Polyakov sums up.