After leaving the European Union, Great Britain will strengthen economic ties with non-European countries, enter into new trade relations with them, and create a new alliance to counter global threats, including the activities of Russia and Iran. This was announced on August 6 by the British Foreign Minister Dominic Raab before starting his visit to the countries of North America - the USA, Mexico and Canada.

“I want to build a stronger alliance to protect the international law and order and to combat threats to our security, whether it is Iran’s threatening behavior, Russia's actions to destabilize Europe or the danger posed by terrorism and climate change,” the British Foreign Office quoted Raab as saying departments.

What kind of alliance should be, the minister did not say. However, the British Foreign Minister emphasized that he was going to North America, first of all, to ensure a "smooth transition" that would come after Britain left the EU, and "quickly move to a wide range of trade agreements." The security sector and work on the creation of new political alliances are identified by Raab as strategic issues that do not require immediate resolution.

Recall that in April of this year, the European Union determined the next date by which the British Parliament should agree on the conditions for withdrawing from the EU - October 31, 2019. British Prime Minister Boris Johnson, who was elected to his post at the end of July, said that this time the country would meet the deadline. The appointment of Dominic Raab as head of the foreign ministry was one of the first personnel decisions of the new head of government. In the previous cabinet, which was headed by Teresa May, Johnson's main opponent and rival in the fight for Prime Minister Jeremy Hunt was the Foreign Minister.

Minister with Disabilities

Experts believe that the statement of Raab reflects the line of the new UK government to expand cooperation with non-European countries, primarily with the United States.

“The very idea of ​​Brexit is very supported by Donald Trump. If he wins the presidential election in 2020, and by this time the UK leaves the EU, cooperation with London will be one of Washington’s priority foreign policy lines, ”Leonid Polyakov, member of the Expert Council of the Institute for Social, Economic and Political Research Foundation, said in an interview with RT .

  • British Foreign Minister Dominic Raab
  • Reuters
  • © Hannah McKay

However, according to the political scientist, it is not at all a fact that Britain will leave the EU by 2020. It is possible that the country will not be able to complete the brexit.

“The government of Boris Johnson meets with obvious opposition from the parliament, from the side of the House of Commons,” states Polyakov.

If the cabinet does not comply with the will of voters who spoke in a referendum in 2016 for the country's exit from the EU, the prime minister, like his predecessor, will be forced to resign, experts recall. In these conditions, statements about any unions after Brexit so far look very speculative, especially when a person like Raab acts as their author, Vladimir Schweitzer, head of the department of social and political studies at the Institute of Europe of the Russian Academy of Sciences, speaks in an interview with RT.

“The Minister was recently appointed and already says that he wants to build some serious long-term alliances. Moreover, it is not known how much Raab will be at the current post. Johnson has a very nasty character, he breaks up with people quickly and easily, ”he said.

However, according to Schweitzer, if Brexit is nevertheless completed, it will in any case entail changes in the global system of interstate relations, which will affect not only the EU countries.

“Even Russia will have to revise a number of agreements with Great Britain. If the British leave the EU by October 31, this will put the United Kingdom itself in an extremely difficult position. Not just ties with the European Union will break. Relations with countries with which the UK has contacted through the EU will break. The reality that will develop after Brexit is still an equation with all the unknowns, ”says Schweitzer.

The contours of the future alliance

The statement by Raab on a new alliance reflects only the general vector that Johnson’s cabinet will adhere to in foreign policy, experts say.

“Since Raab mentioned Iran, this means that the new British government, most likely, as the United States earlier, will withdraw from the Joint Comprehensive Action Plan (JCPOA) on the Iranian nuclear program. The British and Americans will cooperate more closely in everything related to the situation in the Persian Gulf. This cooperation is fraught with the threat of military conflict in the region, ”Polyakov believes.

  • Boris Johnson and Donald Trump
  • Reuters
  • © Kevin Lamarque

Nevertheless, it is unlikely that the new alliance, the core of which will be Great Britain and the USA, will be based only on anti-Iranian and anti-Russian lines.

“Of course, attempts to create some kind of new interstate union in order to“ contain ”Russia or Iran will be made. But they are unlikely to succeed, especially if Trump is re-elected. I’m not sure that he will go on building an alliance with a clear anti-Russian vector, ”Polyakov believes.

As for the fight against the "destabilizing role of Russia", then in practice it will not be, said Vladimir Schweitzer.

“The relations between our countries and under Boris Johnson will be as always, that is, stably bad, but to a certain limit,” the expert said.

Leonid Polyakov draws attention to the fact that Teresa May expressed the idea of ​​expanding Great Britain’s cooperation with the countries of the British Commonwealth - that is, with the former colonies and dominions of the British Empire.

“London can expand ties with Australia, with New Zealand, with part of the Asian and African states, with Canada. This, unlike the anti-Russian and anti-Iranian alliance, is quite likely, ”Polyakov believes.

Any new alliance with the participation of Great Britain will also not be some kind of alternative to NATO, will not lead to the collapse of the EU, political scientists say. In their view, it will not be easy for the new alliance to find allies in Europe.

“So far, no one, except the British, is going to leave the European Union. Even the most dissatisfied with Brussels' policies want to improve their position in the EU, and not break with it. London also cannot hope for countries of Western Europe that are not members of the European Union: Iceland, Norway, Switzerland. They have strong ties with the EU, trade preferences and so on. Their unification with Great Britain in some new alliance is unrealistic, ”Schweitzer believes.

So far, the United States is the only real member of the new association with the participation of the British, experts say. At the same time, Schweitzer emphasizes that, under any leadership, cooperation between countries, despite their political and cultural proximity, is only possible to a certain limit.

“I’m not sure that Washington will tow the British economy and will contribute to it in every way. The United States and Great Britain have always been in competition. Politically, they are really like-minded people, and in terms of anti-Russian actions, their voices are consonant. But in the struggle for economic interests they are unlikely to be great friends, ”Schweitzer concludes.