Everything is clean and tidy at Camp Marmal, not far from Masar-i-Sharif. The roses in the flower beds in the courtyard of the restaurant "Oasis" are accurately cut back, the lacquer of the wooden furniture shines, and even the concrete paths look as if you could eat from the floor. Rest is above the camp, from where the Bundeswehr heads the operation "Resolute Support" in northern Afghanistan.
But this peace is deceptive. Seventeen years after the start of the international deployment in the Hindu Kush, the mission has come into question as never before since US President Donald Trump announced the halving of 14,000 soldiers in Afghanistan at the end of last year. In the medium term, he even wants to pull the US soldiers off the Hindu Kush.
There is no progress to report from the crisis country, on the contrary. The security situation has deteriorated significantly since the beginning of the year, and the Taliban are now controlling important parts of the country again. 2019 will be a crucial year for Afghanistan, said Foreign Minister Heiko Maas, as he visited on Monday Camp Marmal and the capital Kabul.
Political support is dwindling
Maas' short visit is aimed primarily at the audience in Germany. In the coming week, the Bundestag is to extend the mandate for the 1300 Bundeswehr soldiers for another year. And the minister can not be sure that the FDP and Greens continue to support the mission. Although parliamentary approval is not jeopardized, political support is dwindling for this mission, which the majority of Germans are no longer convinced of.
All the more urgent warned Maas in Afghanistan before the consequences, "if you go out too early". Leaving this country at this point in time "would mean that everything that was painstakingly built up here would break down". It could be "hit short and short in no time," warned Maas.
The Foreign Minister barely criticized Trump's plans. The worst thing that could happen right now is an overhasty retreat, he said. Trump had not discussed his announcement with the Allies. "We were surprised," Maas admitted.
The SPD politician welcomed talks with the Taliban led by US special envoy Zalmay Khalilzad in Doha. At the same time, he warned that agreement with the Taliban should not be at the cost of progress on human and women's rights, democracy and the rule of law. "The peace process must not throw Afghanistan back into the past," said Maas in Kabul. The achievements so far must not be questioned "for lazy compromises".
DPA
Maas with President Ashraf Ghani in Kabul
The talks between the Americans and the Taliban could only be a first step, Maas urged. The Germans are committed to involving the government under President Ashraf Ghani in the negotiations. Maas offered to hold a peace conference in the tradition of the Petersberg talks in Germany. However, the conditions for such a conference would have to be created in Afghanistan.
For the German training mission currently 1150 Bundeswehr soldiers are stationed in Camp Marmal. Of these, however, only about 90 soldiers actually form the Afghan army, while all the others support their support in the field camp. The security situation is so precarious that only a fraction of soldiers ever leave the camp during missions, even for a few miles.
"The Afghans should be able to take their fate into their own hands in the foreseeable future," said Maas. On the other hand, military and diplomats assume that Germany will remain engaged in Afghanistan for a very long time to come. There is much talk of "strategic patience". "We are here to contribute to world peace," said Colonel Thomas Blank, chief instructor at Camp Marmal.
However, the prerequisite for such a long-term commitment would be for the US to remain in the Hindu Kush with a considerable contingent. But that is extremely questionable.
Little progress in the economy and society
In early March, a plan was announced by the Pentagon, according to which the US troops should confine themselves in the future to special operations to combat terrorism. The Europeans and the rest of the international force should continue the education of the Afghans alone. In three to five years, the Americans want to leave the country altogether.
It's a dilemma: if the international force stays, the prospects for peace are slim. On the other hand, a withdrawal from Afghanistan would increase the risk of the country sinking back into civil war, as after the withdrawal of Soviet troops from Afghanistan in 1989.
Another historical comparison is obvious: the American withdrawal from Vietnam. There is much to suggest that the US is pursuing similar tactics in Afghanistan as it did in Southeast Asia more than half a century ago.
They have massively increased the number of air strikes in order to bring the Islamists to the negotiating table. But in the talks with the Taliban, the United States, according to German diplomats, is actually negotiating from a position of weakness. Although German politicians continue to speak of a "strategic stalemate", the military situation in the Hindu Kush has changed in recent years in favor of the Taliban. In addition, Trump's announcement has strengthened her bargaining position.
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The economic and social development of Afghanistan is progressing only very slowly, 17 years after the beginning of its biggest operation, which alone cost the US about a trillion dollars. Last year, the country ranked 16th out of 189 in the United Nations Development Index.
Although life expectancy and per capita income have risen, the illiteracy rate is falling. But even officially, unemployment is almost 24 percent. Half of the state budget is covered by foreign donor funds. The federal government has given up after 2014, even to create annual progress reports. Afghanistan currently ranks fifth among the countries of origin of asylum seekers in Germany.
On Monday evening Foreign Minister Maas wanted to travel to Pakistan. His talks in Islamabad on Tuesday will also deal with the situation in Afghanistan and the conflict in Kashmir.